Week one lies. Sometimes teams can look like Super Bowl contenders in week one, then they’re eliminated from playoff contention by Thanksgiving. Conversely, some teams you thought were contenders fall flat in week one, losing to a team they shouldn’t have or by way more points than they should’ve. By October, they’re firmly established as one of the front runners for the playoffs.

Week one is about overreacting. Your team is either Super Bowl bound or the sky is falling. In the rankings, I’ve tried not to overreact, though some teams did make dramatic climbs up the board and others dramatic falls.

Of course, that doesn’t mean I do have some overreactions to the week one results.

Rankings & Week One Overreactions

1- Buffalo Bills (1-0) +2

The Bills will run away with the AFC East. Super impressive showing in Houston.

2- Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

Seahawks lost Darnold early, but they persevered and overcame.

3- Los Angeles Rams (0-1) -2

Already wondering if the Rams can even win the NFC West.

4- Chicago Bears (1-0) +1

Good luck to the rest of the NFC North trying to slow down this offense.

5- Baltimore Ravens +7

Ravens are back. They’ll run away with the AFC North.

6- Houston Texans -2

They won’t face many teams capable of laying 30+ on their defense.

7- Jacksonville Jaguars +3

Picked up where they left off. AFC South will be a dogfight between Jacksonville & Houston.

8- San Francisco 49ers +3

Niners might be the biggest threat to Seattle in the NFC West.

9- Philadelphia Eagles -2

Philly still owns the NFC East, but they’re not among the NFC elite anymore.

10- Detroit Lions -2

Lions still look like the team that stumbled and missed the playoffs last year.

11- Denver Broncos -2

That was ugly, in all phases. How long until Sean Payton retakes play calling duties?

12- Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals D looks better, but is it enough to contend?

13- Kansas City Chiefs +5

This isn’t the Chiefs offense we’re used to, but KC appears to be back.

14- Los Angeles Chargers -8

Did any playoff hopeful have a more deflating opener?

15- New England Patriots -1

Drake Maye & the Patriots will regress to middle of the pack this season.

16- Green Bay Packers -1

Packers are in trouble. No killer instinct and they can’t mask their holes anymore.

17- Carolina Panthers -1

The D got shredded, but the O showed some punch back ability.

18- New Orleans Saints +1

Saints are going to be a tough out for any team.

19- Dallas Cowboys -2

Cowboys are what I thought they were. Perennially overrated.

20- Minnesota Vikings +1

Minnesota was over hyped, as people put too much faith in Kyler Murray. Come see me in October.

21- New York Giants +1

Giants are the biggest threat to Philly’s division dominance.

22- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

Bucs still look like the team that collapsed last year.

23- Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh will play the most unwatchable games this year.

24- Arizona Cardinals +7

Maybe the Cardinals won’t be tanking.

25- Washington Commanders

Even if Jayden Daniels can stay healthy, I don’t see Washington contending.

26- Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders might be good enough to keep Fernando Mendoza on the bench awhile.

27- New York Jets +1

The Jets might actually be a competent, competitive team this year.

28- Atlanta Falcons -4

The worst quarterback situation outside of Cleveland.

29- Indianapolis Colts

Colts will have a housecleaning come January.

30- Tennessee Titans -3

Titans might actually be regressing.

31- Cleveland Browns -1

Is there are more incompetent organization in professional sports?

32- Miami Dolphins

Can Miami run the table in reverse?