Playoff Picture: Week 15

AFC

1. DENVER BRONCOS (11-2)

Remaining Schedule

vs Green Bay Packers

vs Jacksonville Jaguars

at Kansas City Chiefs

vs Los Angeles Chargers

The AFC currently runs through Denver, but that could change. The Broncos are virtually a lock to make the playoffs & it would take an utter collapse to lose the division, but the battle for the #1 seed will be tough. Denver doesn’t have any cupcakes left on the schedule.

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2)

Remaining Schedule

vs Buffalo Bills

at Baltimore Ravens

at New York Jets

vs Miami Dolphins

New England is nearly a lock to win the AFC East, even with a loss to Buffalo next week. The Patriots also have a really good chance to be the #1 seed, their remaining schedule is considerably easier than Denver’s.

3. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-4)

Remaining Schedule

vs New York Jets

at Denver Broncos

at Indianapolis Colts

vs Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville currently sits alone atop the AFC South & with 9 wins, the Jaguars are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. The division, however, is up in the air, with a red hot Houston breathing down their necks. Unfortunately, Jacksonville & Houston will not play each other over the next four weeks.

4. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6)

Remaining Schedule

vs Miami Dolphins

at Denver Broncos

at Cleveland Browns

vs Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh currently leads the AFC North & holds the fourth seed in the AFC, but their position is precarious. The Steelers could still miss the playoffs entirely. Their schedule isn’t easy, with the rematch with Baltimore looming in the final week. A rejuvenated Cincinnati is also lurking. Winning the division seems like the only path for Pittsburgh as a wildcard is a very, very long shot.

#5 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-4)

Remaining Schedule

at Kansas City Chiefs

at Dallas Cowboys

vs Houston Texans

at Denver Broncos

The Chargers have one of the toughest closing schedules of any playoff contender, not a single cupcake involved. They’re in good shape now, but every win is critical.

6. BUFFALO BILLS (9-4)

Remaining Schedule

at New England Patriots

at Cleveland Browns

vs Philadelphia Eagles

vs New York Jets

A loss in New England will end Buffalo’s hopes of winning the AFC East & getting a top three seed, but the Bills are a virtual lock for the playoffs. In a playoff scene that could be missing Kansas City & Baltimore, some may think this is Buffalo’s year, but if they have to win three tough road games to make the Super Bowl, I’m skeptical.

7. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5)

Remaining Schedule

vs Arizona Cardinals

vs Las Vegas Raiders

at Los Angeles Chargers

vs Indianapolis Colts

Houston has worked themselves all the way back into the playoffs, if the season ended today, but they have their sights set higher. Texans are just a game behind Jacksonville in the AFC South, they don’t play each other, but one little slip by the Jags & Houston will pounce.

8. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-5)

Remaining Schedule

at Seattle Seahawks

vs San Francisco 49ers

vs Jacksonville Jaguars

at Houston Texans

Indianapolis was already in a full on collapse before they lost Daniel Jones for the season. They shouldn’t let the Jones’ injury change the narrative, the Colts were a long shot to make the playoffs with that closing schedules.

9. BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-7)

Remaining Schedule

at Cincinnati Bengals

vs New England Patriots

at Green Bay Packers

at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore should stay alive until the final week, when they visit Pittsburgh, because the AFC North is very weak. The Ravens have a tough schedule & they haven’t looked good lately.

10. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-7)

Remaining Schedule

vs Los Angeles Chargers

at Tennessee Titans

vs Denver Broncos

at Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City pretty much has to run the table to make the playoffs, but don’t doubt for a second that Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid & the Chiefs aren’t capable of doing just that. Their two toughest games are in Arrowhead. Don’t count out KC until they are officially eliminated.

11. MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-7)

Remaining Schedule

at Pittsburgh Steelers

vs Cincinnati Bengals

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

at New England Patriots

Miami also needs to run the table, and get some help, to make the playoffs. The schedule is tough, but manageable, especially if New England has everything wrapped up by the final week. Dolphins are a long shot, but still alive.

12. CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-9)

Remaining Schedule

vs Baltimore Ravens

at Miami Dolphins

vs Arizona Cardinals

vs Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati is still alive because of a bad AFC North, but any loss will all but eliminate the Bengals. Call me crazy, but with a healthy Joe Burrow, I think Cincy has a legitimate shot.

Games to Watch

Week 15– Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

KC has no margin for error & LA has a brutal schedule. Feels like the winner of this one will make the playoffs, the loser could be out.

Week 18– Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The AFC North usually comes down to these 2 teams, and this game will, again, decide the winner of the division. But, there’s a caveat, I think it will be between the Steelers & a resurgent Cincy. If Pittsburgh wins this, they’re in, lose & I think the Bengals sneak in.

Week 15– Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

This game will probably have no bearing on the AFC East, I don’t think Buffalo will make up two games in 4 weeks, but it could be the difference between the Pats having the #1 seed and a bye or being #2.

Week 15– Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Huge heavyweight fight. Broncos need it in their battle for the #1 seed, Packers need it to maintain their lead in the NFC North. This one will have a lot of seeding implications.

Week 16– Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins

Both teams could be eliminated by then, but one of them almost certainly will be afterwards. Both Cincy & Miami have no margin for error which raises the stakes for this one.

My AFC Picks

  1. Denver Broncos (14-3) AFC West Champions
  2. New England Patriots (14-3) AFC East Champions
  3. Houston Texans (12-5) AFC South Champions
  4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-9) AFC North Champions
  5. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
  7. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)

NFC

1. LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-3)

Remaining Schedule

vs Detroit Lions

at Seattle Seahawks

at Atlanta Falcons

vs Arizona Cardinals

The division and conference #1 seed will be decided in two weeks when the Rams travel to Seattle. LA will be either the first or fifth seed in the NFC.

2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-3-1)

Remaining Schedule

at Denver Broncos

at Chicago Bears

vs Baltimore Ravens

at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has two tough road games the next two weeks that will ultimately decide what seed they end up with. Packers could end up as the #1 seed if they run the table.

3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-5)

Remaining Schedule

vs Las Vegas Raiders

at Washington Commanders

at Buffalo Bills

vs Washington Commanders

Philadelphia is scuffling & their fans are in panic mode, but a favorable closing schedule means they should easily clinch the #3 seed in the NFC. Eagles need to fix things to defend their title, but they certainly have the chance to do so.

4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-6)

Remaining Schedule

vs Atlanta Falcons

at Carolina Panthers

at Miami Dolphins

vs Carolina Panthers

Tampa’s playoff destiny will be decided by those two games with Carolina. Buccaneers are floundering, but the division still runs through them, for now.

5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-3)

Remaining Schedule

vs Indianapolis Colts

vs Los Angeles Rams

at Carolina Panthers

at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle is in much the same boat as the LA Rams, that matchup next week is huge, but the Seahawks also have two tough road games to finish the season.

6. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-4)

Remaining Schedule

vs Tennessee Titans

at Indianapolis Colts

vs Chicago Bears

vs Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has a firm grip on a wildcard spot, but they should still have eyes on the division title. Two tough games to finish the season, but the Niners get them both at home.

7. CHICAGO BEARS (9-4)

Remaining Schedule

vs Cleveland Browns

vs Green Bay Packers

at San Francisco 49ers

vs Detroit Lions

Chicago lost first place in the NFC North & the #1 seed, but they have a shot to get both back rather quickly. The rematch with Green Bay will decide the division. If the Bears defend their home field, they should be no worse than the second seed.

8. DETROIT LIONS (8-5)

Remaining Schedule

at Los Angeles Rams

vs Pittsburgh Steelers

at Minnesota Vikings

at Chicago Bears

Detroit controls their own destiny, for now, because of the final week matchup with Chicago. The Lions, however, don’t have the easiest of schedules. Every loss hurts.

9. CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-6)

Remaining Schedule

at New Orleans Saints

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

vs Seattle Seahawks

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina’s season hinges on those two games with Tampa. Panthers best bet to make the playoffs is to win the NFC South.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS (6-6-1)

Remaining Schedule

vs Minnesota Vikings

vs Los Angeles Chargers

at Washington Commanders

at New York Giants

Dallas is still alive because of Philly’s struggles, but the Cowboys have no margin for error. This week’s matchup with Minnesota probably eliminates one of them.

11. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-8)

Remaining Schedule

at Dallas Cowboys

at New York Giants

vs Detroit Lions

vs Green Bay Packers

Minnesota is still mathematically alive, so I’m including them in this list. The Vikings, however, are the longest of long shots. Three very tough games in the last four, I expect them to be eliminated quickly.

Games to Watch

Week 16– Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

This game will likely decide the NFC North champion. Packers have a tough one the week before, then easier ones after this. Bears have what should be an easy one before this, but 2 tougher ones to finish the season.

Week 16– Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Huge, huge game with major implications. Winner will probably win the NFC West and the #1 seed & first round bye. Loser will end up the fifth seed & on the road in the playoffs.

Week 16– Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Week 18– Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lump these two together because these will decide the NFC South. One team will get in & host a playoff game, the other will go home for the offseason.

Week 15– Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys

Both teams are long shots, but one of them will almost certainly be eliminated after this one.

My NFC Picks

  1. Los Angeles Rams (13-4) NFC West Champions
  2. Chicago Bears (12-5) NFC North Champions
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) NFC East Champions
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) NFC South Champions
  5. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
  7. Green Bay Packers (11-5-1)

NFL Power Rankings: Week 15

#1 LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-3)

Previous: #1, won at Arizona, 45-17

The week 16 rematch with Seattle looms large for division & conference supremacy.

Upcoming: vs #13 Detroit

#2 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-3)

Previous: #2, won at #23 Atlanta, 37-9

As stated above, the rematch with LA will determine a lot.

Upcoming: vs #21 Indianapolis

#3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2)

Previous: #3, BYE

Patriots could clinch division with win versus Buffalo.

Upcoming: vs #7 Buffalo

#4 DENVER BRONCOS (11-2)

Previous: #4, won at #31 Las Vegas, 24-17

Denver has a stranglehold on the division & should be either the 1 or 2 seed.

Upcoming: vs #5 Green Bay

#5 GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-3-1) +2

Previous: #7, won vs #5 Chicago, 28-21

Green Bay outlasted Chicago & took over first place in the North & the #2 seed, for now.

Upcoming: at #4 Denver

#6 HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5) +3

Previous: #9, won at #19 Kansas City, 20-10

Signature win for CJ Stroud, Demeco Ryans & this Texans team vs KC. Houston is the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

Upcoming: vs #26 Arizona

#7 BUFFALO BILLS (9-4) +3

Previous: #10, won vs #20 Cincinnati, 39-34

Bills narrowly avoided a home loss to Cincy. Big game in New England if they have any hope of earning a home playoff game.

Upcoming: vs #3 New England

#8 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-4)

Previous: #8, BYE

Niners come off their bye one game back in the NFC West & a strong grip on a wildcard spot.

Upcoming: vs #30 Tennessee

#9 CHICAGO BEARS (9-4) -4

Previous: #5, lost at #7 Green Bay, 28-21

Bears fell behind Green Bay in the NFC North & down to the 7th seed, but they have a chance to flip that again over the next two weeks.

Upcoming: vs #31 Cleveland

#10 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-5) -4

Previous: #6, lost at #18 LA Chargers, 22-19

I’m officially worried about Philly after their third straight loss. They could have sealed the division with a win, now they still haven’t clinched a playoff berth, yet.

Upcoming: vs #32 Las Vegas

#11 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-4) +3

Previous: #14, won vs #15 Indianapolis, 36-19

Jaguars have seized control of the AFC South, but Houston is hot on their heels.

Upcoming: vs #28 NY Jets

#12 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-4) +6

Previous: #18, won vs #6 Philadelphia, 22-19

Huge win for the Chargers, solidifying their position in the playoff race.

Upcoming: at #20 Kansas City

#13 DETROIT LIONS (8-5) -1

Previous: #12, won vs #17 Dallas, 44-30

Lions got a much needed win & now control their own destiny because of the their week 18 matchup with Chicago.

Upcoming: at #1 LA Rams

#14 CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-6) +2

Previous: #16, BYE

Carolina returns from their bye with a clear path to the postseason, those 2 games with Tampa will determine their fate.

Upcoming: at #25 New Orleans

#15 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-6) -2

Previous: #13, lost vs #30 New Orleans, 24-20

Tampa is struggling but with two games left versus Carolina, they still control their own destiny.

Upcoming: vs #24 Atlanta

#16 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6) +5

Previous: #21, won at #11 Baltimore, 27-22

Steelers gained the upper hand in the AFC North, but their position is far from solid.

Upcoming: vs #18 Miami

#17 DALLAS COWBOYS (6-6-1)

Previous: #17, lost at #12 Detroit, 44-30

Despite the loss, Dallas stays alive because of Philly’s struggles.

Upcoming: vs #23 Minnesota

#18 MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-7) +4

Previous: #22, won at #26 NY Jets, 34-10

Dolphins have surged back into the playoff race, but they have no margin for error.

Upcoming: at #16 Pittsburgh

#19 BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-7) -8

Previous: #11, lost vs #21 Pittsburgh, 27-22

Ravens still have a shot, but they look like a team that’s lost its way.

Upcoming: at #22 Cincinnati

#20 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-7) -1

Previous: #19, lost vs #9 Houston, 20-10

KC is still alive, but they’re hanging by a thread.

Upcoming: vs #12 LA Chargers

#21 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-5) -6

Previous: #15, lost at #14 Jacksonville, 36-19

Colts were already in free fall, now they’ve lost Daniel Jones for the season.

Upcoming: at #2 Seattle

#22 CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-9) -2

Previous: #20, lost at #10 Buffalo, 39-34

Cincy let one slip away in Buffalo, but they could still run the table & win the AFC North.

Upcoming: vs #19 Baltimore

#23 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-8) +5

Previous: #28, won vs #24 Washington, 31-0

Minnesota is still mathematically alive, but it probably won’t be for long.

Upcoming: at #17 Dallas

#24 ATLANTA FALCONS (4-9) -1

Previous: #23, lost vs #2 Seattle, 37-9

Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #15 Tampa Bay

#25 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-10) +5

Previous: #30, won at #13 Tampa Bay, 24-20

New Orleans is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: vs #14 Carolina

#26 ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-10) -1

Previous: #25, lost vs #1 LA Rams, 45-17

Arizona is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #6 Houston

#27 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-10) -3

Previous: #24, lost at #28 Minnesota, 31-0

Washington is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #29 NY Giants

#28 NEW YORK JETS (3-10) -2

Previous: #26, lost vs #22 Miami, 34-10

Jets are eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #11 Jacksonville

#29 NEW YORK GIANTS (2-11)

Previous: #29, BYE

Giants are eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: vs #27 Washington

#30 TENNESSEE TITANS (2-11) +2

Previous: #32, won at #27 Cleveland, 31-29

Tennessee is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #8 San Francisco

#31 CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-10) -4

Previous: #27, lost vs #32 Tennessee, 31-29

Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #9 Chicago

#32 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-11) -1

Previous: #31, lost vs #4 Denver, 24-17

Las Vegas is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #10 Philadelphia

Playoff Picture: Week 14

AFC

Locks

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– BYE

Week 15– vs Buffalo Bills

Week 16– at Baltimore Ravens

Week 17– at New York Jets

Week 18– vs Miami Dolphins

Patriots are in the drivers seat for the AFC East title, even with a loss to Buffalo they’d be a game up. Tight battle with Denver for #1 seed, might need to go 4-0 to get it.

DENVER BRONCOS (10-2)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Las Vegas Raiders

Week 15– vs Green Bay Packers

Week 16– vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 17– at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 18– vs Los Angeles Chargers

Assuming Broncos take care of business versus Vegas, they’ll be tied with New England in the race for #1 seed. The road for Denver, however, is much tougher. Their last four games could all have major playoff implications. They could officially eliminate the Chiefs in week 17.

Controlling Their Destiny, for now

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Indianapolis Colts

Week 15– vs New York Jets

Week 16– at Denver Broncos

Week 17– at Indianapolis Colts

Week 18– vs Tennessee Titans

Jaguars have two huge matchups with Indianapolis down the stretch. If they can split with Indy & take care of business against the Jets & Titans, they should get a playoff spot, possibly win the division.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-4)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 15– at Seattle Seahawks

Week 16– vs San Francisco 49ers

Week 17– vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 18– at Houston Texans

Colts are currently tied for first with Jacksonville & they play the Jaguars twice down the stretch. It feels like Indy needs to win both of those to have any shot at the playoffs because their schedule is very tough. After dominating the first two months of the season, the Colts could very well miss the playoffs.

BUFFALO BILLS (8-4)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Cincinnati Bengals

Week 15– at New England Patriots

Week 16– at Cleveland Browns

Week 17– vs Philadelphia Eagles

Week 18– vs New York Jets

Barring a complete collapse, the Bills should make the playoffs. The division, however, may be out of reach. Even if they win in New England, they’ll need help to overtake the Patriots.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-4)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Philadelphia Eagles

Week 15– at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 16– at Dallas Cowboys

Week 17– vs Houston Texans

Week 18– at Denver

The Chargers currently occupy a playoff spot and they trail Denver by 2 in the AFC West, but they have a very difficult schedule & they’ve had a rash of injuries. They control their own destiny for the postseason, but it might be fleeting.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-6)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 15– at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16– vs New England Patriots

Week 17– at Green Bay Packers

Week 18– at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore controls their own destiny because they have two games versus Pittsburgh and one against Cincinnati. Win those three and they should take the AFC North. Lose one or more and they likely miss the playoffs because their other games are tough.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-6)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Baltimore Ravens

Week 15– vs Miami Dolphins

Week 16– at Detroit Lions

Week 17– at Cleveland Browns

Week 18– vs Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh needs at least a split with Baltimore and probably a win versus Cleveland to have a shot. They have a slightly easier schedule than Baltimore, but they’ve been faltering.

Lurking

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 15– vs Arizona Cardinals

Week 16– vs Las Vegas Raiders

Week 17– at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 18– vs Indianapolis Colts

The battle with Kansas City is huge. With a win they could solidify their position and all but eliminate the Chiefs. Houston has a favorable schedule down the stretch and a real shot to make up the one game deficit and win the AFC South.

Needing Help

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-6)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Houston Texans

Week 15– vs Los Angeles Chargers

Week 16– at Tennessee Titans

Week 17– vs Denver Broncos

Week 18– at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs run of AFC West titles is pretty much over and they have little margin for error in the race for a wildcard, but as long as they have a pulse you cannot count them out.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-7)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at New York Jets

Week 15– at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 16– vs Cincinnati Bengals

Week 17– vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 18– at New England Patriots

The Dolphins need to run the table to have any chance. A tall task, but possible, especially since New England might have nothing to play for in the final week.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Buffalo Bills

Week 15– vs Baltimore Ravens

Week 16– at Miami Dolphins

Week 17– vs Arizona Cardinals

Week 18– vs Cleveland Browns

Cincy dug a deep hole for themselves during Joe Burrow’s absence, but somehow they’re still alive. Buffalo isn’t necessarily a must win, if they can win their last 4 they could have a shot.

My Picks

  1. DENVER BRONCOS (AFC West Champion)
  2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (AFC East Champion)
  3. HOUSTON TEXANS (AFC South Champion)
  4. CINCINNATI BENGALS (AFC North Champion)
  5. BUFFALO BILLS
  6. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  7. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

NFC

Locks

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-3)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Arizona Cardinals

Week 15– vs Detroit Lions

Week 16– at Seattle Seahawks

Week 17– at Atlanta Falcons

Week 18– vs Arizona Cardinals

The week 16 battle with Seattle looms large, it could decide the division & possibly the #1 seed.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-3)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Atlanta Falcons

Week 15– vs Indianapolis Colts

Week 16– vs Los Angeles Rams

Week 17– at Carolina Panthers

Week 18– at San Francisco 49ers

Again, that week 16 matchup with the Rams is huge. Seattle will make the playoffs, but if they lose to LA & San Francisco they could end up with the 7 seed.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-4)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 15– vs Las Vegas Raiders

Week 16– at Washington Commanders

Week 17– at Buffalo Bills

Week 18– vs Washington Commanders

It would take an epic collapse for Philly not to win the division or make the playoffs. Number one seed is still in play, but I think LA or Seattle will pull away with that.

Controlling their Destiny, sort of

CHICAGO BEARS (9-3)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Green Bay Packers

Week 15– vs Cleveland Browns

Week 16– vs Green Bay Packers

Week 17– at San Francisco 49ers

Week 18– vs Detroit Lions

Those two Packers games probably decide the division. If Chicago defends their home field, they’ll win the NFC North. Probably need a minimum 4-1 to get the #1 seed.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3-1)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Chicago Bears

Week 15– at Denver Broncos

Week 16– at Chicago Bears

Week 17– vs Baltimore Ravens

Week 18– at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay probably needs to sweep Chicago to win the division. Not an easy road, but the Packers should make the playoffs.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-5)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs New Orleans Saints

Week 15– vs Atlanta Falcons

Week 16– at Carolina Panthers

Week 17– at Miami Dolphins

Week 18– vs Carolina Panthers

Those two games with Carolina will decide the division. Bucs have an outside shot of a wildcard, but it seems like winning the division is their best bet.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (9-4)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– BYE

Week 15– vs Tennessee

Week 16– at Indianapolis Colts

Week 17– vs Chicago Bears

Week 18– vs Seattle Seahawks

Niners are a near lock for the playoffs and they’re right there in the NFC West race, but they need help. The final two versus Chicago & Seattle could determine seeding.

Right There

CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-6)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– BYE

Week 15– at New Orleans Saints

Week 16– vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 17– vs Seattle Seahawks

Week 18– at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Panthers best bet is to win the NFC South, and the two games against Tampa should decide the division.

Need Help

DETROIT LIONS (7-5)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Dallas Cowboys

Week 15– at Los Angeles Rams

Week 16– vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 17– at Minnesota Vikings

Week 18– at Chicago Bears

Lions have little margin for error. It feels like the Dallas game is a must win for both. Their division hopes are probably lost.

DALLAS COWBOYS (6-5-1)

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Detroit Lions

Week 15– vs Minnesota Vikings

Week 16– vs Los Angeles Chargers

Week 17– at Washington Commanders

Week 18– at New York Giants

Dallas has no margin for error. Any loss probably eliminates them from division contention & playoff contention.

My Picks

  1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (NFC West Champion)
  2. CHICAGO BEARS (NFC NORTH Champion)
  3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (NFC East Champion)
  4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (NFC South Champion)
  5. LOS ANGELES RAMS
  6. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  7. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Week 14 NFL Picks

Last Week: 11-5 / 10-6

Season: 128-66 / 100-94

Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Detroit Lions

Huge game. One of these teams will stay alive, the other will be on the ropes. I’ll take Detroit in a tight one.

DET 28-27

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Battle for first place in the AFC North. Baltimore hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, but Pittsburgh has been worse.

BAL 20-17

Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow is back & Cincy is looking to make a push, but winning in Buffalo is tough.

BUF 30-27

Seattle Seahawks (-8) @ Atlanta Falcons

Seattle seems destined for a deep playoff run. Atlanta seems destined for a complete overhaul.

SEA 30-17

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett could break the single season sack record in this game. Other than that, there’s no reason to watch this one.

CLE 14-13

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)

Winner gets sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Jacksonville has the momentum.

JAX 24-21

Washington Commanders (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Two teams that aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, but they’re eliminated. Jayden Daniels might be back, so I’ll take Washington.

WAS 24-16

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ New York Jets

Miami looking to stay alive, the Jets looking to play spoiler. Miami has been kind of hot lately.

MIA 24-21

New Orleans Saints (+8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa has an excellent chance to pull a full game ahead in the NFC South.

TB 24-20

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)

Broncos will win, but they don’t cover against anyone.

DEN 19-14

Chicago Bears (+5.5) @ Green Bay Packers

Battle for first in the NFC North. I’ll give the nod to the home team, reluctantly.

GB 24-21

Los Angeles Rams (-8) @ Arizona Cardinals

Rams bounce back by blasting a Cardinals team just playing for pride.

RAMS 38-21

Houston Texans (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Houston has been hot and I want to pick them, I just can’t pick against Mahomes in December, yet.

KC 23-20

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Philly bounces back against a banged up QB playing behind a banged up offensive line.

PHI 23-17

BYES

CAROLINA PANTHERS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
NEW YORK GIANTS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Trash Pandas: Week 13 Recap & Week 14 Preview

Week 13 Recap

Trash Pandas vs Achilles Heels

This was a bad loss for the Pandas. I could’ve all but clinched a playoff spot with a win, nearly sewed up the division & stayed undefeated in it. Instead, I’ve fallen a game back in the division race & dropped down to the seventh seed.

The week started bad when Jahmyr Gibbs managed only 7 points against Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day.

It got worse on Black Friday when Rome Odunze threw up a goose egg & the Philadelphia Eagles defense managed only 1 point, but my Bears got a HUGE win, so I’m not complaining.

My opponent had some good performances during the early slate on Sunday, but I was able to chip away during the afternoon games. Brock Bowers was pretty much the dominant force he usually is, scoring 18 points & winning the TE battle by 16.

Ernest Jones IV had one of the the better IDP games on the season and gave me some hope going into Sunday night.

Unfortunately, Bo Nix put up 30 to beat Justin Herbert by 12 points in the QB matchup.

I still had a slight chance on Monday night with TreVeyon Henderson & Andy Borregales going. It was frustrating to watch New England essentially split touches between Henderson & Rhamondre Stevenson, even though Henderson is clearly the superior back.

I’m disappointed, but on the bright side, I didn’t make any managerial mistakes that cost me this game, I just got beat.

Jones IV gets my MVP, now on to the next one.

Ernest Jones IV, LB, Seattle Seahawks. Photo Credit- Jennifer Buchanan/ The Seattle Times

Week 14 Preview

Trash Pandas vs Xandar Guardians

Projected Lineups & Reserves

Previous Matchup

Week 4 Result

This is a big matchup for both of us. The winner essentially clinches a playoff spot, while the loser enters the final week desperate.

I won our first matchup by getting solid, if unspectacular, performances from every player on my roster. I did cost myself nearly 40 points by not playing the right kicker, but it didn’t hurt me.

Right now, I’ve got about a 50/50 chance to win this. I lost Henderson to a bye, my opponent lost Amon-Ra St. Brown to injury. I need to pick up a kicker.

My keys to the week:

  1. Trevor Lawrence: Managerial decision to go with Lawrence over Herbert. Lawrence’s matchup is only slightly better, but Herbert is dealing with a broken left hand & is playing behind a banged up offensive line against what I presume will be a pissed off Philly defense. I think Lawrence gives me the better chance at winning.
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs: I need a bounce back week from Gibbs, badly. TreVeyon Henderson is on bye. Brock Bowers has a terrible matchup & my receivers don’t have good ones. Gibbs’ matchup isn’t as great as it would have been earlier in the season, but Dallas’ defense can still give up some chunk plays. Hopefully those go to Gibbs.
  3. Philadelphia Eagles: The Philly defense was bullied by Chicago, so hopefully they come into this one pissed off. The Chargers offensive line is banged up and so is Herbert. I want a bunch of sacks and a turnover or 2.
  4. Bhayshul Tuten: Henderson is on bye, so Tuten gets the start. I haven’t settled on which WRs I’ll play, only Jordan Addison has a decent matchup, but he’s got JJ McCarthy throwing, so I’m not sure I can count on getting much there. Tuten has been getting more touches recently and scored a TD last week. I’d love double digits from him.

Way too Early 2026 NFL Mock Draft

As a Bears fan, I’m usually deep into mock draft season at this time, but this year I’m just now taking my first look. In between trash talking Packer fans, I decided to do my first mock draft for 2026.

Obviously, the draft order isn’t close to being set. I wasn’t going to mock trades, but with the current top two picks being the Titans & Giants, who both drafted first round quarterbacks last year, I knew I had to trade them out of those spots.

So, here we go:

If Tennessee ends up with the first pick, they’re going to trade out of it, for sure. Two quarterback needy teams have the draft capital to move up for their guy. I think the Jets might be the more motivated and something tells me Simpson will emerge as their guy.
The Giants currently have the second pick and will likely entertain offers for it. Cleveland will probably be bringing in a new coaching staff that will want to pick their own quarterback and they have the capital to move up.
The Saints are an interesting team at the top of the draft. They may or may not need a quarterback. Tyler Shough has been okay, but New Orleans is in position to take a perhaps higher upside QB. I think they’ll actually roll with Shough and use this pick to add a blue chip pass rusher.
The Raiders might have a new coaching staff in place for the draft. Either way, I don’t think Geno Smith has a firm grasp on the QB job. Vegas might be better served going offensive line, but they’ll probably go quarterback.
I have the Giants trading out of number two and then adding the top WR to give Jaxson Dart two go to guys with Tyson & Malik Nabers.
Safeties rarely go in the top ten, but Downs is a rare talent and fills a need for Washington.
I have Tennessee trading out of number one and then landing one of the two guys they were probably considering at one.
The Cardinals might be in the quarterback market, so they’re a team to watch. Here, I have them taking the top offensive lineman.
The Rams are my Super Bowl favorite AND they have a top ten pick. I have them using it on an offensive tackle.
Is there any way that Cincy doesn’t use their first round pick on defense?
Is taking a running back in the first round the right move for Minnesota? Probably not, but the Vikings have made some questionable moves lately.
Miami might consider defense in the first round, but with Tyreek Hill’s future uncertain, I have them going receiver.
Kansas City needs to start rebuilding various parts of their roster, I have them starting in the secondary.
Pittsburgh fans would probably prefer a wide receiver, or better yet, a quarterback, but defense feels like a Steelers pick.
Carolina would do well to bolster their defense for 2026.
Dallas needs to keep building their defense up.
One of the reasons for Detroit’s struggles this season is their offensive line is not nearly as dominant as it once was.
Texans can’t resist making a fierce defense even scarier.
Baltimore could use another reliable target for Lamar Jackson.
Tampa adds the top tight end to their offensive arsenal.
Bills fans would probably prefer a wide receiver here.
Stockpiling pass rushers is what the Eagles do.
The Jets got their QB earlier, they get him another receiver here.
I feel like the Niners will go either offensive line or receiver here.
The Chargers offensive line was decimated this year, if nothing else this gives them depth.
The Browns get another receiver for their new quarterback.
Dallas continues rebuilding their defense.
No obvious area of need for Seattle, so I have them going best player available.
Rams have an extra first round pick, could use the second to try to land a successor to Matthew Stafford.
Broncos bolster Bo Nix’s receiving corps.
Bears will focus heavily on the defensive front seven.
New England could use reinforcements for their pass rush.

BJ & Da’Bears: Week 13 Recap & Week 14 Preview

Week 13 Recap

BJ & Da’Bears vs Legion of Squirrels

Another week, another loss. I’ve now clinched the worst record in the league and I lost any chance I had at playing spoiler. I’ve got a meaningless Week 14 game before the Toilet Bowl, let’s make this quick.

Kyle Monangai gets MVP for a stellar 18 point performance.

Trey McBride had another great week, sorry you got wasted on a terrible team, in real life & fantasy.

Tetairoa McMillan only had one catch, but it was a 43 yard touchdown.

Bhayshul Tuten also had a TD and a respectable 8 points.

Brian Thomas Jr has cemented himself as my worst number one pick, EVER!

Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears. Photo Credit- Bill Streicher/ Imagn Images

Week 14 Preview

BJ & Da’ Bears vs Achane in the Membrane

Projected Lineups & Reserves

Previous Matchup

Week 3 Result

Our previous matchup gave me my first victory on the season. This matchup is totally meaningless, both of us are eliminated from playoff contention.

My keys to the week:

NONE.

Who cares? This game means nothing, take a week off and go to the Toilet Bowl.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 14

Serious Contenders

#1 LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-3)

Previous: #1, lost at #18 Carolina, 31-28

I’m keeping the Rams at #1, despite the loss in Carolina. Long road trip, inclement weather & uncharacteristic Stafford turnovers. LA lost the top seed in the NFC, for now, but I think they’re still the team to beat.

Upcoming: at #25 Arizona

#2 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-3)

Previous: #2, won vs #25 Minnesota, 26-0

The Seahawks are right there with LA, but I can’t put them ahead of the Rams, yet, because I don’t trust playoff Darnold. Seattle might have the best defense in the NFC.

Upcoming: at #23 Atlanta

#3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2) +3

Previous: #6, won vs #29 NY Giants, 33-15

Patriots roll into their bye on a ten game winning streak. I don’t fully trust this young team, yet, but I’m not sure I trust any team in the AFC.

Upcoming: BYE

#4 DENVER BRONCOS (10-2) +3

Previous: #7, won at #28 Washington, 27-26

The Broncos haven’t earned many style points in their ten game winning streak, but they keep finding ways. The defense is elite and could be enough to carry them all the way to the Super Bowl.

Upcoming: at #31 Las Vegas

#5 CHICAGO BEARS (9-3) +5

Previous: #10, won at #3 Philadelphia, 24-15

What a week for the Bears. They utterly dominated the defending champs on Black Friday, then they slide into the #1 seed in the NFC on Sunday. Huge battle with their bitter rivals this week.

Upcoming: at #7 Green Bay

#6 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-4) -3

Previous: #3, lost vs #10 Chicago, 24-15

The Eagles are out of sorts on offense and their defense got bullied by the Chicago offensive line, but they are the defending champs. Philly has the horses to turn this around and make another run at the Super Bowl.

Upcoming: at #18 LA Chargers

#7 GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3-1) +4

Previous: #11, won at #5 Detroit, 31-24

Packers swept Detroit, but suddenly they have a challenger for NFC North supremacy they weren’t expecting. Battle for first place with Chicago in Lambeau this week.

Upcoming: vs #5 Chicago

Contenders

#8 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-4) +4

Previous: #12, won at #23 Cleveland, 26-8

Somehow, despite the injuries, the Niners are hanging in there in the NFC West, only a half game back. They seem to have a firm grip on at least a wildcard spot.

Upcoming: BYE

#9 HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5) +4

Previous: #13, won at #9 Indianapolis, 20-16

The Texans have surged back into the AFC playoff race behind the best defense in the NFL. I think it’s that defense that will propel them to the AFC South crown.

Upcoming: at #19 Kansas City

#10 BUFFALO BILLS (8-4) +4

Previous: #14, won at #20 Pittsburgh, 26-7

Let me be clear, I think the Bills are frauds. This is not a legit Super Bowl contender, in my opinion, but they’ll probably get in to the playoffs and could pull out a road win in the Wildcard round.

Upcoming: vs #20 Cincinnati

#11 BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-6) -7

Previous: #4, lost vs #24 Cincinnati, 32-14

The Ravens are another team I do not expect much from in January, they just seem off. That said, they have the clearest path to the postseason from the mediocre AFC North.

Upcoming: vs #21 Pittsburgh

#12 DETROIT LIONS (7-5) -7

Previous: #5, lost vs #11 Green Bay, 31-24

The Lions should be in desperation mode. The division title is probably out of reach now, and they have little margin for error in the wildcard race, but Detroit does have a team that can make it happen.

Upcoming: vs 17 Dallas

#13 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-5) +3

Previous: #16, won vs #26 Arizona, 20-17

The Buccaneers got a much needed victory and kept their tenuous hold on the NFC South, for another week. Tampa owns this division until someone takes it from them, but Carolina is knocking.

Upcoming: vs #30 New Orleans

#14 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4) +1

Previous: #15, won at #32 Tennessee, 25-3

The Jaguars overtook Indy for first place in the AFC South. They’ve been quietly lurking all season. Their grasp may be fleeting, though, as Houston is surging.

Upcoming: vs #15 Indianapolis

Fighting for their Lives

#15 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-4) -6

Previous: #9, lost vs #13 Houston, 20-16

The Colts are plummeting back to earth and the landing promises to be rough. It’s not all on Daniel Jones, but I have always had reservations about Indianapolis because of him. Colts need to right the ship or they could be on the outside looking in.

Upcoming: at #15 Jacksonville

#16 CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-6) +2

Previous: #18, won vs #1 LA Rams, 31-28

Panthers just aren’t going away. The win over LA is the signature win of Bryce Young’s career. If Tampa gives them an opening, Carolina could seize the division.

Upcoming: BYE

#17 DALLAS COWBOYS (6-5-1) +2

Previous: #19, won vs #8 Kansas City, 31-28

Since the trade deadline, the Cowboys have been surging. The division is probably out of reach at this point, but Dallas is poised to make some noise in the wildcard race.

Upcoming: at #12 Detroit

#18 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-4) -1

Previous: #17, won vs #31 Las Vegas, 31-14

I dropped the Chargers one spot, after a win, because I’m just not sure they can weather all these injuries. The latest is the biggest, possibly. Justin Herbert broke bones in his non-throwing hand and his status going forward is unclear.

Upcoming: vs #6 Philadelphia

#19 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-6) -11

Previous: #8, lost at #19 Dallas, 31-28

The Chiefs have squandered any margin for error they might have had. The division is lost, and they likely have to run the table to make it as a wildcard. With Mahomes, KC is never out of it, but the door is closing.

Upcoming: vs #9 Houston

Hanging by a Thread

#20 CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8) +4

Previous: #24, won at #4 Baltimore, 32-14

Joe Burrow returned and saved the Bengals season, for now. If Cincy was in any other division, they’d be dead in the water, but the AFC North is eminently winnable for the Bengals, but they have very little margin for error.

Upcoming: at #10 Buffalo

#21 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-6) -1

Previous: #20, lost vs #14 Buffalo, 26-7

The Steelers are still alive, because the AFC North is terrible, but it feels like Pittsburgh is circling the drain. I’m reasonably confident that this will be Aaron Rodgers’ swan song and could be Mike Tomlin’s as well.

Upcoming: at #11 Baltimore

#22 MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-7) -1

Previous: #21, won vs #30 New Orleans, 21-17

The Dolphins are saving their coach’s job and lingering on the periphery of the playoff hunt. I still find it unlikely, but each win increases their chances.

Upcoming: at #26 NY Jets

Dead in the Water

#23 ATLANTA FALCONS (4-8) -1

Previous: #22, lost at #27 NY Jets, 27-24

Put a fork in ‘em, the Falcons are done. Heads are going to roll in Atlanta after another underachieving season.

Upcoming: vs #2 Seattle

#24 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-9) +4

Previous: #28, lost vs #7 Denver, 27-26

The Commanders jump four spots despite another loss, because Jayden Daniels is about to return. Washington has no hope of making the playoffs, but they could play spoiler.

Upcoming: at #28 Minnesota

#25 ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-9) +1

Previous: #26, lost at #16 Tampa Bay, 20-17

The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention and big changes could be coming in Arizona this offseason.

Upcoming: vs #1 LA Rams

#26 NEW YORK JETS (3-9) +1

Previous: #27, won vs #22 Atlanta, 27-24

The Jets are showing some signs of growth in Aaron Glenn’s first season. Now, if they could finally complete their endless search for a franchise quarterback.

Upcoming: vs #22 Miami

#27 CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-9) -4

Previous: #23, lost vs #12 San Francisco, 26-8

It’s a shame the Myles Garrett’s historic season is being wasted on a terrible Browns team. Cleveland will probably be searching for a new coach come January.

Upcoming: vs #32 Tennessee

#28 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-8) -3

Previous: #25, lost at #2 Seattle, 26-0

The Vikings made a terrible mistake letting Sam Darnold walk. Can Kevin O’Connell fix JJ McCarthy? If not, Minnesota could occupy the basement in the NFC North for years to come.

Upcoming: vs #24 Washington

#29 NEW YORK GIANTS (2-11)

Previous: #29, lost at #6 New England, 33-15

Giants season is lost and they need to protect Jaxson Dart from himself the rest of the season.

Upcoming: BYE

#30 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-10)

Previous: #30, lost at #21 Miami, 21-17

The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention, but Tyler Shough is giving New Orleans something to think about. He may have earned another season as starting quarterback, letting the Saints address other areas in the draft.

Upcoming: at #13 Tampa Bay

#31 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-10)

Previous: #31, lost at #17 LA Chargers, 31-14

The Raiders have been eliminated from playoff contention and reports suggest that Vegas is just as dysfunctional as ever. I think this could be Pete Carroll’s final season as an NFL head coach.

Upcoming: vs #4 Denver

#32 TENNESSEE TITANS (1-11)

Previous: #32, lost vs #15 Jacksonville, 25-3

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. The good news, they can probably ransom the first overall pick for a pretty sizable haul.

Upcoming: at #27 Cleveland

Green Bay, Read This

If the Packers send the Bears back to Chicago, defeated, they’ll take over first place in the NFC North. You’ll get to dunk on Bears fans, give them their comeuppance for not knowing their place.

You’ll get to remind us this is your division. That Green Bay owns us, whether it’s Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love under center. You’ll get to mock us, mercilessly, for two whole weeks. Then, you’ll have to do it again, but in Chicago this time.

See, that’s the thing, Green Bay, you need to beat the Bears twice to control your own destiny in the division, we only have to win once.

So, yeah, if you win on Sunday, it’ll hurt us. They always hurt. But, the thing is, we’re Bears fans. We’ve got layers upon layers of scar tissue. There is nothing you can say to us that we haven’t already heard a dozen times over the last 30 years.

Well take our licks and two weeks later we’ll get a shot at redemption, in Soldier Field. I wonder, Green Bay, if you’ve considered, for a moment, the alternative?

If the Bears march into Lambeau and do to your Packers what they just did to Philly, how will you cope?

How will you cope knowing there is a new king in the North, because, make no mistake, if the Bears win in Lambeau this Sunday, they are winning the North. It won’t matter what you do. It won’t matter if you come to Chicago and win, we’ll still be ahead of you, unless you get some help. Have you considered that?

Even if the Packers win and seize control of the NFC North, it will not crush us. We’ve been down that road many, many times. We know the way back.

We will survive. But, will you?

You can put on the brave face. Pretend you’re not worried. That’s cool, confidence is admirable. But, deep down, somewhere in that part of your soul you don’t speak of in polite company, the thought has crossed your mind. What if these aren’t the same old Bears?

What if that big swing for the fences you took with Micah Parsons was all for naught, because Chicago had already trumped it last January when they hired Ben Johnson.

Face it, Green Bay, if you win you can dunk on us all you want, but nothing you say will affect us, we’ve been there, done that. But if the Bears win, your world, as you know it, crumbles to ash.

No pressure, Green Bay, none whatsoever.

Just remember,

Bear Down the Stretch

D’Andre Swift scores vs Eagles. Photo Credit- Matt Slocum/ Associated Press

I was planning on writing this after next week’s game against Green Bay, but I find myself with some free time on a Sunday and I’m still buzzing about the huge win against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bears haven’t lost since the Sunday before Halloween. They just went 5-0 in November, the last two victories over division leaders, Pittsburgh and the aforementioned Eagles.

They enter December in first place in the NFC North. The last time they led the division this late in the season was 2018, and I can draw a significant parallel between that season and this one.

In 2018, I was enjoying the Bears winning after several down years, but deep down I wasn’t sure how good they actually were. They had gotten to 8-3 by the end of November, they had some impressive wins but the only one over a decent opponent was at home against the Vikings.

They opened December by losing to a below average Giants team and sat at 8-4 entering a Sunday night matchup with the 11-1 Los Angeles Rams. The Bears did not play well, offensively, in that game but the defense was utterly dominant. So dominant, in fact, that the New England Patriots studied the tape of that game prior to holding the Rams to 3 points in the Super Bowl.

The Bears win over the Rams was the game where I finally knew, this team was good. Of course, we all know how that season ended. The double doink robbed us Bears fans of seeing what that team could have accomplished.

This season, while not following the same trajectory as 2018, had a similar feeling. I was happy with the wins, but deep down I was wondering how good are the Bears, really?

They had barely escaped with wins against the lowly Raiders, Giants & Bengals without Joe Burrow. Sure, they had shutdown a high powered Cowboys offense and beat the Commanders with a fully healthy Jayden Daniels, but they also lost to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings & Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. Their only victory over a team with a winning record was over the Steelers, who were playing without Aaron Rodgers.

Then, Black Friday came. I didn’t hold out much hope. The Eagles are a juggernaut. Their offense is inconsistent, but their defense is elite. I was looking at this game as a measuring stick. I just wanted the Bears to look respectable, play a true Super Bowl contender close in their own building.

The Bears exceeded my loftiest hopes. They not only went into Philly and won, they dominated. The final score, 24-15, doesn’t tell the story of how utterly Chicago dominated this game.

The Bears offensive line bullied one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Bears rushed for 280+ yards & both D’Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai had over 100 yards rushing.

The Bears defense forced two turnovers against an offense that had the fewest turnovers in the league coming in. They shut down Saquon Barkley and really the entire Philly offense, except AJ Brown.

I’m sitting here, smiling as I write this, because I now know the Chicago Bears are a good football team. Not only do I know that we’ll be playing meaningful games in December, but we’ll be in the playoffs come January.

The Bears are now 9-3. Ten wins might get them in the playoffs, 11 surely will. A 2-3 stretch drive isn’t being overly optimistic, in fact I think it’s too pessimistic. Winning all five is probably asking too much, but why not 4-1 or 3-2?

3-2 probably wins the division, especially if at least one of the wins is against Green Bay. 4-1 certainly wins the North. Win the North and they get a home playoff game.

So what are the keys to make this happen?

  • Getting Healthy & Staying Healthy: The Bears defense has been decimated by injuries this season. Their top two cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson & Kyler Gordon, have missed significant time this season. Tyrique Stevenson has also been banged up. Johnson & Gordon returned against Philly & Stevenson should be back for Green Bay. The Bears are also down 4 linebackers. Tremaine Edmunds, who was having a career year, is on IR. TJ Edwards has missed multiple games, Noah Sewell missed the last two games & Ruben Hyppolite missed the Eagles game. D’Marco Jackson & Amen Ogbongbemiga have played well in relief, but getting Edwards & Edmunds back would be huge. Hopefully, the Bears can also avoid any more significant injuries, especially to…
  • The Offensive Line: In my opinion, this is the main reason the Bears are 9-3. This is the best offensive line Chicago has had since 1985. Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times last season, he’s on pace to suffer less than half that many this year. The Bears are also the number two rushing offense in the NFL. A case could be made for Joe Thuney, Darnell Wright, Jonah Jackson & Drew Dalman to each make the Pro Bowl. Ironically, an injury may have helped the Bears find their permanent left tackle. Theo Benedet was serviceable, but a bit of a liability in pass protection. His injury forced rookie Ozzy Trapilo into the starting lineup and he’s looked good. He’s had some hiccups, but he offers more upside as a blindside protector. If this unit can stay intact, the Bears should have a chance in every game they play.

HOLY SHIT! AS I’M WRITING THIS, THE CAROLINA PANTHERS BEAT THE LOS ANGELES RAMS AND THE BEARS ARE CURRENTLY THE NUMBER ONE SEED IN THE NFC!

Now, back to it…

  • Turnovers: This is the other big reason the Bears are in the position they are. The defense hasn’t been good. They’ve given up a ton of yards and have struggled to put teams away, but they’ve taken the ball away… a lot! Kevin Byard leads the NFL with 6 interceptions, Nahshon Wright is right behind him with 5 ( and also has 3 fumble recoveries) & Tremaine Edmunds has four. They’ve managed this while generating little pass rush. If they can keep this up through December, it bodes well for their chances of getting a high seed.
  • Caleb Williams: Williams has shown elite sack avoidance this season and the super important clutch gene, but he’s yet to put everything together. Critics like to point out his less than stellar completion percentage, but those box score critics aren’t actually watching the games. Yes, Williams has missed some throws, but he’s also been a victim of some bad luck. He’s had a lot of drops and especially in the Eagles game he had a couple of receivers lose their footing on what were actually perfectly thrown balls. Williams has been very good protecting the football and making the right reads. He’s made big time plays with his arm and his legs when the Bears have needed them most. If his accuracy improves on the simpler throws and he gets some help from his receivers his completion percentage will go up and watch out. The Bears are a dangerous team and their franchise quarterback hasn’t even reached his peak, yet.

The Rest of the Season

@ Green Bay- A couple weeks ago, I was hoping the Bears would split their two games with the Packers. Now, I want the sweep and I don’t think it’s out of the question. Green Bay has a good defense, but not as dominant as Philadelphia and the Bears just bullied the Eagles defensive line. It’s entirely fathomable that they can do similar to Green Bay. Lambeau is a tough place to win, but if the Bears offensive line can control the line of scrimmage, it’s very possible. The Packers have already lost twice at home, to Philly and to Carolina. I want the Bears to hand them number three next week.

vs Cleveland- The Browns defense, especially Myles Garrett, worries me a little bit. Their offense, however, has me salivating. Cleveland will be starting a rookie quarterback, either Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel, in what will likely be a raucous Soldier Field. I anticipate the Bears defense forcing several turnovers, creating short fields for the offense to offset a stingy Browns defense.

vs Green Bay- Yes, I want the sweep, but this is the gotta have it game against the Packers. Defend Soldier Field and they have a decent shot at winning the NFC North. Speaking of defending, the Bears defense could be as close to full strength as they’ve been all season for this game. TJ Edwards should be back by then and Tremaine Edmunds is eligible to come off IR for this one. I think the Bears could force Jordan Love into a couple turnovers in this one.

@ San Francisco- I have to admit, as the season has progressed and the Bears have gotten better and better, this game has started to concern me more. The reason is because the Niners are a gutsy team that has battled through numerous injuries to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. A west coast road trip this late in the season is tough and San Fran could be fighting for their playoff lives. It’s a winnable game for the Bears, but also a prime spot for a letdown if they beat the Packers the week before.

vs Detroit- The Lions annihilated Chicago in week two, but that was a different Bears team. Detroit still poses a threat. They have superb playmakers in Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St.Brown & Jameson Williams. They have a quarterback, Jared Goff, who can use those weapons to great effect if he’s not pressured. Add in the fact that Detroit might be very desperate for a win to make the postseason and this one could be a nail biter, if the Bears don’t have things wrapped up by then. Can Dennis Allen dial up some pressure on Goff and force a couple mistakes?

I think the Bears go 3-2 down the stretch, but I do think 4-1 is possible. I can’t, in good conscience, pick the sweep of Green Bay, but I do think we’ll get the split and that will be enough to win the NFC North.

In addition to the two games with the Bears, Green Bay also has to go to Denver and they host Baltimore. If Chicago goes 3-2, Green Bay has to go 4-1 to wrest the division from our grasp. Detroit would need to go 5-0.

3-2 is probably not good enough to secure the number one seed, because the Rams & Seahawks have identical records to Chicago and each are capable of going 5-0 down the stretch, though they do play each other. Philadelphia also remains a threat, though they do have 2 tough road games remaining and they’re a game behind Chicago and the Bears own the tiebreaker.

Up to Date NFL Predictions

MVP

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams. Photo Credit- Jordon Kelly/ Getty Images
  1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
  2. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
  3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Dark Horse– Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Offensive Player of the Year

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers. Photo Credit- Godofredo A Vasquez/ Associated Press
  1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
  2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Dark Horse– George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Defensive Player of the Year

Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns. Photo Credit- David Dermer/ USA Today Sports
  1. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
  2. Will Anderson, DE, Houston Texans
  3. Kevin Byard, S, Chicago Bears

Dark Horse– Jordyn Brooks, LB, Miami Dolphins

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers. Photo Credit- Brett Davis/ Imagn Images
  1. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
  2. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  3. Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts

Dark Horse– Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns. Photo Credit- Jim Dedmon/ Imagn Images
  1. Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns
  2. Nick Emmanwori, S, Seattle Seahawks
  3. Abdul Carter, DE, New York Giants

Dark Horse– Will Johnson, CB, Arizona Cardinals

Coach of the Year

Mike Vrabel, Head Coach, New England Patriots. Photo Credit- Mark Konezny/ Imagn Images
  1. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
  2. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears
  3. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Dark Horse– Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

Updated Super Bowl Pick

LOS ANGELES RAMS

OVER

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS