I’m doing something a bit different than traditional power rankings, which fluctuate week to week and don’t really accurately reflect the actual power structure of the league.
In my system, I’m not ranking teams 1-32, rather I’m placing them in tiers. Teams can, and probably will move from one tier to another, both up and down, through the season, but this is how I see them right now.
THE FRONT RUNNERS
Hurts hasn’t even played that well yet & they’re 6-1.Offense showed signs of their glorious past against Chargers, even with a struggling O they won 6 in a row.At full strength, the Niners might be the most complete team in the NFL.
IN PURSUIT
Dolphins need to prove they can beat a good team on the road before they reach serious contender status.If it wasn’t for the meltdown versus Pittsburgh, Baltimore would be in the higher tier.Seattle will make the playoffs, but they’re clearly a level or 2 behind Philly & San Fran.Jaguars have shown flashes of being serious threats, then they’ve also shown flashes of being pretenders.
DARK HORSES
Pittsburgh wins ugly, they haven’t been flashy, but they’re 4-2.At least one of Tampa, New Orleans or Atlanta are making the playoffs. All three have shown flashes of taking the next step, only to take a step backward. Will one of these teams become a real contender?
KEEP AN EYE ON
As Burrow gets healthier, Bengals should start to rise.If Cleveland gets the QB play they’re paying for, they have the defense to make some noise.The Jets D is elite and Aaron Rodgers might defy logic and make it back by the playoffs. Can Zach Wilson keep them in the hunt?
FRAUDS
Is it time to put Josh Allen in the Kirk Cousins category? Is McDermott’s seat getting just a little warm?Detroit will win their division, but they can chill with the Super Bowl talk. They’ll be lucky to not be a one and done in the playoffs.The Cowboys are what they always are. Good, but not great. Brandon Staley should be coaching for his job the rest of the season.The McVay aura has worn off. Stafford is what he’s always been, slightly above average.
VERY, VERY DARK HORSES
Both these teams are lacking in talent, but both have first year coaches that have their teams playing tough. A break or two goes their way, they could shock some people.
PLAYING FOR DRAFT POSITION
The rest of this season is about determining if Mac Jones is the guy.Full rebuild should be coming. Will they move King Henry?Josh McDaniel is proving that he’s totally a product of Belichick & Brady.Russ hasn’t been the issue this season, but he’s clearly on the decline. Will the Giants move on from Daniel Jones a year after overpaying to extend him? Will they pay Saquon?Does Ron Rivera make it to Thanksgiving?Jordan Love has gotten worse with each game, will he turn it around?Will the Vikings hold a fire sale?Is Fields they guy or will Chicago be Caleb Williams’ new home?Carolina could really use DJ Moore and their first round pick in ‘24, both now belong to Chicago.Cardinals are the least talented team, but they play tough. What will Kyler’s return mean?
*SPECIAL EXTRA*
Coaches Most likely to be fired before season’s end:
The dust has settled on the 2023 NFL Draft. It’s been a week, and I’ve finally had the time to analyze each team’s draft haul. I’ll go division by division, ranking the teams’ draft classes and grading them. At the end I’ll offer my ten favorite draft classes and my ten least favorite.
AFC EAST
Miami only had four picks but they made the most of them. Every one of these guys could have an eventual impact.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M- Pure speed to add to an already super fast offensive skill position group.
MY GRADE: B
I like what Buffalo did here. Kincaid is the best pass catching tight end in the class. I had a first round grade on Torrence, going to the Bills, in fact. Would have liked to seen a running back and secondary help before the seventh round.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane- I’m a big fan of fast, athletic linebackers. Williams was one of my favorite players in the draft.
MY GRADE: B
The Jets gave one of their second round picks and did a first round pick swap with Green Bay to acquire Aaron Rodgers. That factors into their grade. Because of the pick swap they missed out on the top offensive tackles, then I felt they reached on McDonald. Found some good day three value.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Joe Tippman, OC, Wisconsin- Tippman should be a steady fixture in the middle of the Jets’ offensive line for years to come.
MY GRADE: B-
New England had their typical reaches and gambles on questionable character, tempered by stellar selections in the first two rounds. Picked a kicker AND a punter, only the lack of a long snapper kept them from the unholy trifecta.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon- Call it luck, calling it patiently playing the board to perfection. Gonzalez should have been a top ten pick.
MY GRADE: C-
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh put on a master class of drafting. Moving up ahead of the Jets for the last first round worthy offensive tackle was a smart and relatively cheap move. Joey Porter Jr was a no brainer to kick off the second round, I had him as a possible Steelers’ pick in the first. Really good draft throughout.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia- I honestly believe Washington could become the best tight end in this class.
MY GRADE: A+
Baltimore has been a consistently good drafting team for years, ‘23 was no exception. Flowers is the perfect weapon for Lamar Jackson. Simpson is a thumper that will pair well with Roquan Smith. Kelly was a steal in the fifth.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Andrew Vorhees, OG, USC- Vorhees deserved to go higher than the seventh round, despite tearing his ACL at the Combine. He’s a beast that will anchor the offensive line from ‘24 on.
MY GRADE: A
For not having any picks until the third round, Cleveland landed a stellar class. All their picks should contribute immediately, except Thompson-Robinson, who is a nice developmental QB behind Deshaun Watson.
FAVORITE PICK: Luke Wypler, OC, Ohio State- Landing a potential starting center in the sixth round is the definition of steal.
GRADE: A-
Cincinnati ranks last in their division for this draft class only because the other three teams did so well. They bolstered their secondary and pass rush and found a successor to Joe Mixon. I question using two picks on wide receivers when that is arguably their strongest position group.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Chase Brown, RB, Illinois- Do not be surprised if Brown supplants Mixon as the lead back before season’s end.
MY GRADE: B+
AFC SOUTH
Absolutely stellar draft class for Indianapolis. Starting with making the right decision at QB, straight through the seventh round. It’s hard to find a weakness in this class.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida- I was convinced that Indy was being too conservative in their pursuit of a franchise QB, and also that they’d choose the wrong one. They didn’t. Richardson is a perfect QB for Shane Steichen’s offense.
MY GRADE: A+
Tennessee made the right choice in the first round, then made the move to land their QB in the second. Found some good value after that.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland- I had a second round grade on him. He could develop into a plus starter to pair with Skoronski.
MY GRADE: A-
Houston played an exorbitant price to land Will Anderson, but they had plenty of draft capital to burn. They now have the new faces of their franchise on both sides of the ball.
MY FAVORITE PICK: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State- Despite the pre-draft smoke, the Texans stayed at #2 and took the right QB. I had Stroud as the top QB in the class.
MY GRADE: B+
Even with a plethora of picks, Jacksonville landed a rather unimpressive class. Harrison felt like a reactionary pick after the Cam Robinson suspension. Their entire draft felt like a bunch of reaches.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M- I had a second round grade on him and had him ranked as the number three safety.
MY GRADE: C-
AFC WEST
Las Vegas had a solid draft, landing good value throughout. O’Connell could be a perfect backup for Jimmy G.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland- I think Bennett can become an above average starting cornerback.
MY GRADE: B
Denver didn’t have a pick until the third round because of the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton acquisitions. They then traded into the back of the second for a wide receiver, their deepest position group. Found decent value with their limited picks.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Riley Moss, CB, Iowa- Moss has a chance to become a stellar cornerback in Denver.
MY GRADE: C+
As the defending champions, Kansas City didn’t have any pressing needs. They could afford to reach and gamble. They were more conservative, though. Not a bad draft class, just a little underwhelming.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma- Morris could develop into a long term starter on the offensive line.
GRADE: C+
Did the Chargers only scout TCU games? Not a terrible draft class, but didn’t help them close the gap with the Chiefs.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State- Another fast, athletic linebacker and one of my favorite players.
MY GRADE: C
NFC EAST
The praise of Howie Roseman and Philadelphia is warranted, in my opinion. This was a great draft class. This is one of the few teams that could take a gamble on Carter, and a perfect landing spot for him. Every pick, save for McKee, will play a role in ‘23.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia- Philly got themselves a clone of Haason Reddick at the end of the first. Smith was a top fifteen talent.
MY GRADE: A+
Giants had a good draft. Days one and two were stellar, Gray was great value at the end of the fifth. They took a couple flyers in the seventh.
MY FAVORITE PICK: John Michael Schmitz, OC, Minnesota- Plug and play center that will anchor the Giants’ offensive line for a decade.
MY GRADE: A-
Dallas reached throughout this draft. They got good players, but left better ones on the board.
MY FAVORITE PICK: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas- Have I mentioned that I love fast, athletic linebackers? One of my favorite players in the draft.
MY GRADE: B-
Washington’s ownership is in flux and this draft reflects that. They reached a bunch and didn’t seem to have a coherent plan.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Ricky Stromberg, OC, Arkansas- It was a slight reach, but Stromberg is a decent center and should anchor their offensive line.
MY GRADE: C-
NFC NORTH
The Bears rebuilding is in full swing and it appears smart and evident. Fixed their biggest weakness on offense, strengthened their biggest weakness on defense. Grabbed some real gems on day three.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee- With apologies to Roschon Johnson, protecting Justin Fields was the most important thing that needed to happen. Wright does that.
MY GRADE: A
Detroit made two big reaches in the first round, though both are great players. Day two was solid. Day three was a couple of dart throws.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Brian Branch, S, Alabama- Best safety in the class, should have been a first rounder.
MY GRADE: B
Green Bay landed several very good players, but not addressing the secondary until the seventh round and ignoring the offensive line entirely is questionable.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State- Reed was one of my favorite day two receivers.
MY GRADE: B-
Minnesota’s Achilles heel last year was defense, they addressed that with reaches. The offense, however, should be top level.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jordan Addison, WR, USC- He’ll pair with Justin Jefferson to form a deadly receiver combo.
MY GRADE: C
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans had an overall solid draft. Nothing flashy, but solid value throughout.
MY FAVORITE PICJ: AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest- I had a third/fourth round grade on Perry.
MY GRADE: B+
Tampa Bay did a nice job in jump starting their post- Brady reboot.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State- He might have to kick inside to guard, but Mauch is a mauler on the offensive line.
MY GRADE: B+
Carolina paid a hefty price, but they landed their franchise QB. Not a bad class with limited picks.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama- Size concerns aside, Young was the top QB in this class.
MY GRADE: B-
Atlanta drafted like a team on the precipice of a title, not one that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2017. Bijan Robinson is a great player and the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, but running back in the first is a luxury pick, a luxury I’m not sure the Falcons can afford.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah- I had a late first/ early second round grade on him.
MY GRADE: C-
NFCWEST
Even without the windfall they gathered from Houston to move back, this was a good haul. Arizona deftly played the board in the first and got the guy they wanted. Strong picks throughout.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn- I had a late third/early fourth round grade on him.
MY GRADE: A
Seattle had another solid draft after last year’s stellar class. Double dipping at running back with Kenneth Walker III entering his second year was a head scratcher.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn- One of my favorite day two edge rushers.
MY GRADE: B+
The Rams had a boatload of picks, 10 on day three. They were basically throwing darts at the board, some hit, others did not.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB, TCU- Smaller corner, but one of my favorites. Tenacious competitor.
MY GRADE: C
San Francisco didn’t have a pick until the end of the third round and used their second pick on a kicker. They couldn’t make up for that even with a day three home run. They didn’t hit one.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State- One of the best safeties in the class. Unfortunately, this was the Niners’ last great pick.
Rough first round for my predictions. I correctly called 23 of the 31 players selected, but only 2 were exactly correct (Bryce Young #1 to Carolina & Tyree Wilson #7 to Las Vegas), I also called Will Anderson correctly to Houston, but not at the right pick.
Some quick winners and losers from round one:
WINNERS
HOUSTON TEXANS- paid a price but got their franchise QB, and my number one QB, and the face of their defense & my top overall player in CJ Stroud & Will Anderson, respectively.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Somehow they came out of the first round with Jalen Carter AND Nolan Smith and it only cost them next year’s fourth rounder.
BIJAN ROBINSON- After much debate about the value of running backs, Robinson became the highest selected RB since Saquon Barkley.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Even after trading back a few spots, they landed one of the two best corners and a top ten talent in Christian Gonzalez.
LOSERS
DETROIT LIONS- Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell are solid players, but neither plays a premier position and they both felt like major reaches.
NEW YORK JETS- It seemed inconsequential R the time, but the first round pick swap involved in the Aaron Rodgers trade cost them a shot at a premier offensive tackle.
WILL LEVIS- I had him mocked at #4, nearly everyone had him top fifteen and nobody had him falling out of round one. Yet, he’ll still be waiting for his name to be called on day two.
TIGHT ENDS- The best TE class in years saw only Dalton Kincaid go in the first round, despite several teams having a clear need.
This was bound to happen. I’ve revised my final mock draft hours before the actual draft starts. The reason being is that I’ve gotten strong indications that Tennessee will move up to #3 if Houston passes on CJ Stroud, which I strongly believe will happen.
This will be the mock i grade myself upon. Here we go:
Tennessee trades w/ Arizona for the #3 pick.Jets trade w/ Atlanta for #8 pick. Seattle trades w/ Philly for #10 pick. Arizona acquired #11 pick from Tennessee.Atlanta acquired #15 pick from NY Jets. Chargers trade w/ Washington for #16 pick. Jaguars trade w/ Detroit for #18 pick.Philadelphia acquired #20 pick from Seattle. Washington acquired #21 pick from LA Chargers. Detroit acquired #24 pick from Jacksonville.Cincinnati trades w/ NY Giants for #25 pick. The Giants acquired #28 pick from Cincinatti. Houston trades w/ Philadelphia for #30 pick.
This is version 4 of the final edition. I’m publishing now hoping nothing happens in the next 3 days.
I want to make a couple points before getting into the mock.
QUARTERBACKS
There was a time I thought the QBs would go 1-4. Not anymore. Unless Houston at #2 or Arizona at #3 move back (and I think only one of them may be able to) I only see 2 going in the top 5.
Bryce Young going #1 is the only guarantee of this draft.
I do not think Will Levis is QB2, but I think Colts GM, Chris Ballard does. I think the Colts have been locked on Levis since the offseason began.
My personal order of QBs is Stroud, Young, Richardson, Levis. Some see Levis as another Josh Allen: great tools & measurables without the college production, that blossoms in the NFL. I see him as more of a Mitch Trubisky: never quite makes it over the hump.
I think a team will move up from the early second round to the late first for Hendon Hooker.
WILDCARDS
Jalen Carter is a top 2 or 3 talent, there’s arguments to be made that he’s the best player in the draft. But, there’s red flags. Will talent trump those concerns? If Carter makes it past #5, that throws the whole first round off kilter (as far as my mock goes).
Bijan Robinson is also a top 5 talent, but running back is not a premium position. If some team takes him in the top ten, that will also throw things off.
What happens with Lamar Jackson? Does Baltimore move on? If so, that will cause total chaos.
Mocking the NFL Draft isn’t an exact science. It’s all about making an educated guess. NFL front offices always have differing opinions on some players than professional analysts, pundits and amateurs like myself.
Players will go higher and lower than anybody could predict. It’s always a wild ride and one I thoroughly enjoy.
Anyway, here’s my best guess:
#1
CAROLINA PANTHERS AP Photo/ Michael Ainsworth
BRYCE YOUNG, QB, ALABAMA
Size concerns aside, Young is the most polished QB in this class.
#2
HOUSTON TEXANS AP Photo/ Vasha Hunt
WILL ANDERSON, EDGE, ALABAMA
Anderson is, arguably, the best overall prospect in the draft.
#3
ARIZONA CARDINALS Matthew Visinsky/ Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
TYREE WILSON, EDGE, TEXAS TECH
Wilson has ideal size, length and bend for an NFL edge rusher.
#4
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Andy Lyons/ Getty Images
WILL LEVIS, QB, KENTUCKY
Levis has prototypical measurables for an NFL QB, and a cannon for a right arm.
#5
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Kirby Lee/ USA Today Sports
JALEN CARTER, IDL, GEORGIA
Red flags aside, Carter has too much talent to fall very far.
#6
DETROIT LIONS Dustin Bradford/ Getty Images
CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, CB, OREGON
Gonzalez has ideal size, speed and athleticism to be a top corner in the NFL.
#7
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Michael Allio/ Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
DEVON WITHERSPOON, CB, ILLINOIS
Witherspoon and Gonzalez are interchangeable as the top corner in the draft.
#8
ATLANTA FALCONS Dale Zanine/ USA Today Sports
NOLAN SMITH, EDGE, GEORGIA
Smith is the most athletic edge rusher in this class.
#9
Projected trade with Chicago
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AP Photo/ Jay LaPrete
PARIS JOHNSON JR, OT, OHIO STATE
Johnson is the best pure tackle in the draft.
#10
Projected trade with Philadelphia
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS James Gilbert/ Getty Images
ANTHONY RICHARDSON, QB, FLORIDA
Richardson is raw, but has the most upside of any QB in this class.
#11
TENNESSEE TITANS AP Photo/ Danny Karnik
CJ STROUD, QB, OHIO STATE
Something that we can’t see on tape is driving Stroud down the board.
#12
HOUSTON TEXANS Getty Images
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, WR, OHIO STATE
Despite an injury marred 2022 season, Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in this class.
#13
GREEN BAY PACKERS AP Photo/ Charlie Neibergall
LUKAS VAN NESS, EDGE, IOWA
Van Ness is a bit raw, but a physical specimen with major upside.
#14
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AP Photo
JOEY PORTER JR, CB, PENN STATE
Porter is a tough, physical corner with an excellent pedigree.
#15
NEW YORK JETS Brad Mills/ USA Today Sports
PETER SKORONSKI, OT, NORTHWESTERN
Skoronski may end up kicking inside to guard, but he’s the most polished offensive lineman in the draft.
#16
Projected trade with Washington
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Eric Gay/ AP Photo
BIJAN ROBINSON, RB, TEXAS
Robinson is the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, and a top five talent in this draft.
#17
Projected trade with Pittsburgh
CHICAGO BEARS Tony Walsh/ UGA Sports Communications
BRODERICK JONES, OT, GEORGIA
Jones is a bit raw, but has tremendous upside as an offensive tackle.
#18
DETROIT LIONS Winslow Townson/ USA Today Sports
MYLES MURPHY, EDGE, CLEMSON
Murphy is an extremely talented edge rusher who may be more scheme dependent than those that went before him.
#19
Projected trade with Tampa Bay
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AP Photo
JORDAN ADDISON, WR, USC
Addison is a well rounded, highly productive wide receiver.
#20
Projected trade with Seattle
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AP Photo/ Keith Srakocic
CALIJAH KANCEY, IDL, PITTSBURGH
Kancey is undersized for a defensive tackle, but he’s very quick and tenacious, much like another Pittsburgh alum, Aaron Donald.
#21
Projected trade with LA Chargers
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Associated Press
DEONTE BANKS, CB, MARYLAND
Banks is a smart, fast and fearless cornerback.
#22
BALTIMORE RAVENS Maddie Malhotra/ Getty Images
ZAY FLOWERS, WR, BOSTON COLLEGE
Flowers is a small, but explosive WR with tremendous RAC ability.
#23
Projected trade with Minnesota
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Joe Robbins/ Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
DARNELL WRIGHT, OT, TENNESSEE
Wright is the best pure right tackle in the draft. Will Anderson called him his toughest collegiate opponent.
#24
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AP Photo/ Vasha Hunt
BRIAN BRANCH, S, ALABAMA
Branch is easily the top safety in the draft. Has the versatility to play nickel.
#25
NEW YORK GIANTS David Rosenblum/ Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
O’CYRUS TORRENCE, IOL, FLORIDA
Torrence is, arguably, the top interior offensive lineman in the draft.
#26
DALLAS COWBOYS Darron Cummings/ Associated Press
MICHAEL MAYER, TE, NOTRE DAME
Mayer is an excellent pass catching TE with great size.
#27
BUFFALO BILLS Joe Rondone/ Arizona Republic
QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR, TCU
One of the bigger receivers in the class, Johnston has great contested catch ability.
#28
CINCINNATI BENGALS Jason Getz/ Atlanta Journal Constitution
DARNELL WASHINGTON, TE, GEORGIA
For my money, Washington is the most electric TE in the draft.
#29
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Peter Joneleit/ Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
BRYAN BRESEE, IDL, CLEMSON
Bresee has the size and speed to be a very good defensive lineman in the NFL. His troubling injury history pushes him down the board.
#30
Projected trade with Philadelphia
HOUSTON TEXANS Lucas Swinehart/ Tennessee Athletics
HENDON HOOKER, QB, TENNESSEE
Hooker is older, and recovering from a torn ACL, but the talent is obvious. Some team will move up to get that extra year of team control.
#31
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AP Photo/ Wade Payne
JALIN HYATT, WR, TENNESSEE
Hyatt has blazing speed, should contribute right away with room to grow into a more complete receiver.
Less than two weeks away from the NFL Draft, I decided to publish one last Bears seven round mock.
I mocked a couple trades here. The big one is the first round trade with the Steelers. It’s been rumored that the two teams have touched base on a potential deal, I would love if the parameters look like they do here.
Let’s begin:
ROUND ONE
*TRADE*
This is too good. If I’m Ryan Poles, I make this deal in a heartbeat. Not a bad deal for Pittsburgh, either. They don’t lose picks, just move back with their 2 second rounders, plus it lands them in the top ten, where they take Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski. If Skoronski is, in fact, their target they will have to move up for him.Copyright University of Tennessee Athletics
Right tackle is arguably the Bears biggest need. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr, Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski are all rated higher on most big boards, but Johnson & Jones are primarily left tackles and Skoronski may end up being a guard in the NFL.
Tennessee OT Darnell Wright is a true right tackle and his grade isn’t that far behind the other three. He’s a sure fire day one starter for the Bears with Pro Bowl potential.
Alabama edge rusher, Will Anderson, who many consider the top overall player in the draft calls Wright his toughest collegiate match up. High praise, indeed.
If 2 of Johnson, Jones and Skoronski are off the board at 9, I may hesitate to trade back, but that #32 pick is mighty enticing.
ROUND TWO
Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
This is the reason I wanted that #32 pick. I want Adebawore on the Bears. He’s a freakish athlete, he ran the fastest 40 for a player his size in the history of the NFL Combine. THE FASTEST EVER FOR A GUY HIS SIZE!!!
Adebawore’s best football is ahead of him. He played out of position as an edge rusher at Northwestern, which accounts for his lack of elite production. The Bears will use him as a 3 Tech and he could dominate.
In all honesty, it’s highly likely that AdetomiwaAdebaworedoesn’t make it out of the first round. If he doesn’t, I’d consider Michigan defensive lineman Mazi Smith, Minnesota center John Michael- Schmitz or a cornerback in this spot. If he’s there, though, Poles has to pounce.
*TRADE*
I was targeting John Michael-Schmitz at #49, but he went #42 to the Jets. I looked at Michigan corner DJ Turner, but when the Chargers offered an extra fourth, and a seventh next year to move up for North Carolina wide receiver Josh Downs, I rolled the dice that he’d still be there at #53.Copyright Matt Cashore
Well, my gamble on DJ Turner didn’t work out, he went #50 to Tampa Bay. I considered Kansas State cornerback Julius Brents, but opted to go with a pure edge rusher here.
Isaiah Foskey is another freak athlete. He’s long, fast and explosive with the college production to match. Most draft boards have him in the second tier of edge rushers and a borderline first round pick. Having him available at #53 feels like a steal.
I make another trade back. I was targeting Wisconsin center Joe Tippman and figured I could still land him by moving back. The Giants gave me another fourth rounder to move up for Clemson linebacker Trenton Simpson.Mark Hoffman/ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
I could have waited on a center, this is a pretty deep class, but I really like Joe Tippman. There have been some mocks that have him as a late first rounder, I think that’s too high. I have a third round grade on him, but I traded the Bears only third rounder to Pittsburgh.
Tippman has high football intelligence and great athleticism for the position. He’s not as polished as Minnesota’s John Michael-Schmitz, but he’s got long term starting potential.
With the addition of Tippman and Darnell Wright, the Bears offensive line is suddenly looking formidable.
FOURTH ROUND
Ron Jenkins, Associated Press
I missed out on corners in the second round, but luckily Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson was still on the board when the fourth round started.
Hodges-Tomlinson is an explosive, physical corner despite his smaller stature. He profiles as a nickel corner in the NFL, but the Bears happen to have a need there.
John Cordes/ Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I picked up this pick in the earlier trade with the Chargers.
Andrew Vorhees is a purely value pick. If he hadn’t torn his ACL at the combine, he was a lock as a day 2 pick. The fact that he still participated in the bench press and did 38 reps, speaks to his competitiveness.
Though they’ll get nothing from him in ‘23, Vorhees offers starting potential for years to come.
John Hefti- USA TODAY Sports
This is the fourth rounder I picked up from the Giants earlier.
Even with the addition of DJ Moore, I’d like the Bears to add another receiver in the middle rounds. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are both in the final year of their deals and neither is a lock for an extension.
Two mid round targets I really liked, Michigan State’s Jayden Reed and Mississippi’s Jonathan Mingo, went in the third round.
I have Michael Wilson slightly behind those two, and this pick felt like the time to pounce. He shined at the Senior Bowl and offers solid depth with adequate upside.
AP Photo/ Michael Woods
Bears spent big on linebackers in free agency, so there really isn’t a need, but DeMarvion Overshown is one of my favorite players in the draft.
A converted safety, Overshown has incredible athleticism and has made strides as a linebacker. He could stand to add functional strength to become an every down linebacker in the NFL, but he offers intriguing potential in sub packages and at the very least as a core special teamer.
FIFTH ROUND
Joe Sargent, Getty Images
I wanted to add another body to the Bears running back room. Some of my favorites went in the third round. In the fourth, I missed on Mississippi’s Zach Evans who went at #123 to Seattle. I passed on Texas’ Roschon Johnson in favor of Michael Wilson at #128.
Israel Abanikanda has top end speed and terrific cutting ability. While he offers little as a third down back, he could compete for carries with Travis Homer and perhaps take over the back up role if the Bears don’t bring back D’onta Foreman in ‘24.
Mickey Welsh, Montgomery Advertiser
I had Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton on my radar in the late second round, but opted to go in a different direction. The Steelers actually picked him at #61, a pick they acquired from the Bears.
South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens was on my fourth round radar, but I opted for a corner at #103 and he was off the board by the time I picked at #125. He went #106 to Indianapolis.
Byron Young is a prolific run stuffer that needs to improve as a pass rusher, but he should be able to carve out a role as a rotational piece on the Bears defensive front.
He tested fair to middling at the combine which should push him into the fifth or later rounds.
SEVENTH ROUND
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I had planned on using a seventh round pick on a developmental QB, but all the ones I had my eye on went earlier. I decided to add some depth to the secondary.
Jay Ward offers positional versatility as a safety or nickel back. He is fearless in run support despite his thin frame. A well respected leader on the LSU football team, Ward will, at least, add great special teams value.
My big regret in this mock is not landing a tight end in one of the better classes at that position in recent memory. This pick was my last chance to grab one with some upside. Ward offers valuable depth and special teams value, but I wonder if I should have used this pick on Clemson tight end Davis Allen.
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Myles Brooks has the frame of an NFL boundary corner, and the ball skills. Where he’s lacking is top end speed and athleticism.
He profiles as strictly a reserve corner and special teamer, but his ball production warrants a flyer with the next to last pick in the draft.
RECAP
My first four picks for the Bears completely transform their offensive and defensive lines. Wright is a day one starter at right tackle and Tippman could earn the starting center job as a rookie.
Adebawore may have some growing pains adjusting to the NFL, but his athleticism and traits point to him being a very good 3 Tech. Foskey will find himself with a heavy workload as a pass rusher early in his rookie season.
These four, alone, would be cause for celebration, but I think I found some quality pieces with starting potential in the fourth round as well.
If Ryan Poles adds 4 to 6 starters and some quality depth, this will be a successful draft for the Chicago Bears.
My regrets with this mock are not grabbing a TE, as I mentioned and not landing a developmental QB, but this is a mild regret.
I waited too long to grab a RB, but it wasn’t a pressing need.
Perhaps, I should’ve have added a corner earlier. The Bears do need a nickel and, personally, I think they might need a replacement for Jaylon Johnson, because I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears let him walk after this season.
I’m excited to see how the draft actually unfolds.
We’re in the home stretch towards the NFL Draft, one of my favorite weeks of the year. Hope springs eternal for all 32 NFL fan bases. For this mock, I’m analyzing the options for each pick. There are no trades, but I do speculate on possible moves.
Barring any major shake ups, this will be my final first round mock until draft week. Here we go:
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS- This is going to be a QB, no question, the only question is which one. In my opinion, I think it’s between CJ Stroud & Bryce Young, but for the sake of this exercise there’s also a non-zero chance it could be Anthony Richardson.
Panthers paid a premium to move up to this spot, they cannot afford to miss. Young has tested off the charts & he’s the most accomplished of the QBs, but his slight stature is a risk. Richardson has tremendous upside, but he’s raw. That’s why I think the pick will be:
2. HOUSTON TEXANS- The choice here is between the two QBs Carolina passed over, in this case Bryce Young & Anthony Richardson and the best player in the draft, Alabama edge rusher, Will Anderson.
I toyed with the idea of Houston passing on a QB here and waiting for their pick at #12, but I don’t think they can afford that risk. So, the pick comes down to the QBs. I think it’ll be:
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS- For Arizona, the question comes down to the two best defensive players or trading back for more draft capital.
Unless a team in the top ten comes calling, trying to jump ahead of Indianapolis, I think the Cardinals will stay put. I don’t think they’ll be willing to move too far down the board.
The choice then becomes Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. Carter is immensely talented, but questions about his work ethic and his off field issues make this pick easy.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- The general consensus is that Indy will pick a QB, but they haven’t been very aggressive in securing one. They allowed Carolina to leap frog them and are now relegated to the third QB off the board. With Arizona directly in front of them, there’s a chance they get jumped again. Would they be satisfied with the fourth QB off the board?
To me, it depends on the QB. If it’s Anthony Richardson, I think they’ll take him. He fits the athletic profile that new head coach, Shane Steichen, had with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
If Will Levis is the one left, I’m not so sure the Colts don’t just roll with Gardner Minshew this season with an eye to next year’s draft when the QBs are more elite.
So, I think Indy’s choice is between Richardson, Levis and the top OT in the draft, Paris Johnson Jr, in my opinion. As the board has fallen, thus far, the pick is easy:
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Seattle is a bit of a wildcard early in this draft. If one of Stroud, Young or Richardson slips past Indy, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks pounce.
If Arizona trades out of #3 and QBs go 1-4, then Will Anderson would be a no brainer.
Neither of those scenarios happens in this mock, so Seattle chooses between Jalen Carter & Tyree Wilson. The questions surrounding Carter cause him to slip further:
6. DETROIT LIONS- Detroit might consider Richardson if he’s still on the board. I actually think this would be a perfect landing spot for him, Jared Goff could hold down the fort, even lead a playoff drive, while Richardson acclimates to the NFL.
I think edge rusher could be a possibility, if Anderson or Wilson are still available, but they’re not in this mock.
So, it comes down to Jalen Carter and the top CB, Christian Gonzalez. Carter would be a beast for the Lions and totally transform their defense, but those questions about his character linger. I don’t see Dan Campbell wanting anyone with a questionable work ethic. The pick:
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Vegas could sniff around a QB, but I don’t think they’ll move up for one. Will Levis is the only one I think will slip past the top 5.
Conversely, I think the Raiders are sitting in the sweet spot for a team to move up for that fourth QB.
Corner could be an option, Gonzalez, if he’s there, or Devon Witherspoon. Or, the Raiders could take the top OT in the draft, Paris Johnson Jr.
With Gonzalez off the board, I think the pick will be:
8. ATLANTA FALCONS- I just don’t get the sense that Atlanta is considering a QB here, I suppose things could change depending on the board, but I don’t see it.
Tyree Wilson would be the pick if he’s available, but he’s not in this mock. Same for Christian Gonzalez.
For me, the pick comes down to Jalen Carter & Devon Witherspoon. The slide stops in his home state:
9. CHICAGO BEARS- Chicago traded down from #1 already, but they might not be done. With Levis still on the board, they’re open for business.
If Tyree Wilson is somehow still on the board, I think he’s easily the pick. He’s not in this case.
Jalen Carter would warrant some consideration if he’s there. He’s not, so it’s not a consideration at all.
I don’t think the Bears will take a skill position player here, so I think their choice will come down to top edge rusher, Myles Murphy, top CB, Devon Witherspoon or top OT, Paris Johnson Jr or Broderick Jones.
I think the pick will be:
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Philly is apparently the team that told Jalen Carter they’d take him if he’s there, but he’s not so let’s shift our focus elsewhere.
With Howie Roseman at the wheel, you can never count out the Eagles trading back, but there’s no trades in this mock.
I think the Eagles choice comes down to edge rusher, cornerback and Texas RB Bijan Robinson.
I wouldn’t be surprised by Robinson, he’s definitely a top ten talent, but RB isn’t a premium position and Philly doesn’t draft them in the first round.
Either Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness would fit on the Eagles defense, but I think the best player available is:
11. TENNESSEE TITANS- The word is Tennessee aggressively pursued the #1 pick, so with Will Levis still on the board, there’s a possibility they could go QB.
I think they’ll also consider Northwestern OT, Peter Skoronski, who may end up kicking inside to guard, or the top WR on their board.
The Titans drafted Malik Willis last year, while he’s not ready to be the starter yet he still possesses intriguing potential. I don’t think Tennessee will see Levis as an upgrade, so I think they’ll go:
12. HOUSTON TEXANS– After taking their franchise QB earlier, Houston could switch to defense and take either Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness, or they could give their new QB a true number one WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
If Carolina opts for either Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson, and Houston gets CJ Stroud, I’d say JSN is a slam dunk pick. Even without Stroud, I like the pick:
13. NEW YORK JETS- Reports are stating that Green Bay is backing off their insistence on this pick being part of the package for Aaron Rodgers, but until a deal gets done, I’m not completely dismissing the idea.
If the Jets keep this pick, I think their choices come down to the top offensive lineman left, the top edge rusher left or the top safety in the entire draft, Brian Branch.
I think #13 is too high for Branch. Edge rushers, Lukas Van Ness & Myles Murphy are intriguing, but ultimately I think the Jets bigger needs lie elsewhere. With Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones & Peter Skoronski off the board, Darnell Wright is the next OT on the board.
Most draft analysts have him as a late first, early second round guy, but he’s been climbing draft boards lately, so:
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- I think New England will decide between cornerback, edge rusher & wide receiver.
Ultimately, I don’t see Belichick drafting a receiver early. CB is possible, but this guy’s name just screams Patriots’ defense:
15. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Green Bay’s first post-Aaron Rodgers draft (maybe?) could start with giving Jordan Love more weapons or fixing an aging defense.
Notre Dame TE, Michael Mayer, has been a popular mock draft target for the Packers, but I’m not on board. I think they’ll draft a TE, but not in the first round.
Alabama safety, Brian Branch, would fill a need, but I think it’s still a bit early for him.
In the end, I think Green Bay goes with a pass rusher:
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS- Washington is a candidate to move up for a QB. With Will Levis still on the board, I think it’s a consideration.
Minnesota IOL, John Michael Schmitz, is the best center in the draft. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him go in the first round, but #16 seems really high.
I think the Commanders are going to give Sam Howell a real chance to take hold of the QB spot, so they’ll take the top CB here:
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- I think Pittsburgh’s choices come down to defensive line, secondary or offensive line. I’m not sure the value is there for an offensive lineman, leaving DL & DB.
In both cases, the Steelers have a close connection. DL will be between Bryan Bresee and Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey. DB comes down to Deonte Banks or son of a Steelers’ legend, Joey Porter Jr.
Porter is off the board, so I think Pittsburgh stays close to home and takes the fast rising IDL:
18. DETROIT LIONS- Detroit passed over Will Levis with their first pick, but they have to consider him here.
I think TE is possible, but it’s still early and the TE class is pretty deep.
I think the Lions will bolster their defensive line, with either Clemson’s Bryan Bresee or Georgia’s Nolan Smith. The pick is:
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Tampa is another potential landing spot for Will Levis, either by trading up or staying put.
I also think they’ll consider Georgia edge, Nolan Smith and Maryland corner, Deonte Banks.
I think they’ll opt for the freak athleticism of:
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Seattle will pass, again, on a second chance at Levis. I don’t think he represents the upgrade over Geno Smith and Drew Lock that warrants a first round pick.
The Seahawks will look closely at Minnesota center, John Michael Schmitz and Alabama safety, Brian Branch, but ultimately they’ll take the best WR on their board:
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- I feel like the Chargers will take an offensive weapon here. Either USC WR, Jordan Addison, Texas RB, Bijan Robinson or Notre Dame TE, Michael Mayer.
If LA trades Austin Ekeler, I think Robinson will be the choice. They could still take him, regardless.
They don’t really have a great TE on the roster, so they may go there.
Ultimately, though, I think they go with an eventual replacement for Keenan Allen:
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS- With the Lamar Jackson situation unresolved, Baltimore has to consider Will Levis here. Perhaps they trade Jackson and move further up the board (Indy?).
I do think Jackson plays in Baltimore this season, so they’ll pass on Levis.
They’ve needed a receiver forever, so they’ll look, but the mini run on them will make them pivot to the secondary:
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Minnesota’s Achilles heel was their defense last season, so they should look on that side. There are corners and edge rushers available that are worthy of this spot.
The thing is, Kirk Cousins is 34 years old and he can become a free agent after this season. The Vikings won’t move up for a QB, but if one falls in their lap:
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Jacksonville is one of the toughest teams to pick for. There’s so many directions I think the Jaguars could go.
Positional value, overall value and team needs lead me to believe this pick will either be in the secondary or Ohio State offensive tackle, Dawand Jones, who would fill the void left by Jawaan Taylor.
I think Jacksonville takes the best safety in the class:
25. NEW YORK GIANTS- I think the Giants will weigh the options between wide receiver, offensive line and defensive back.
I think Florida IOL, O’Cyrus Torrence, is a real possibility, but the Giants receiving corps was really bad last season and the addition of Darren Waller still leaves it wanting.
Zay Flowers or Jalin Hyatt?
26. DALLAS COWBOYS- I think Dallas will add an offensive skill position with this pick. It could be a TE to replace Dalton Schultz, Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid. It could be a speedy running mate for Cee Dee Lamb, Jalin Hyatt.
In all honesty, if this guy is still on the board, it’s a slam dunk. I wouldn’t rule out the Cowboys trading up for him:
27. BUFFALO BILLS- Buffalo would seriously consider Robinson if he made it past Dallas, he won’t. They may consider Alabama RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, though.
Offensive line is the other consideration. Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison or Ohio State’s Dawand Jones merit consideration.
I think the Bills go guard, though:
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Dawand Jones makes a lot of sense, if Cincy moves on from Jonah Williams.
It never hurts to have more DBs, so there’s a chance the Bengals go secondary, but I think adding the top TE in a deep class to an already dangerous offense would make them damn near unstoppable:
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- New Orleans could look at Notre Dame TE, Michael Mayer, but Dennis Allen is a defensive coach, so I think they’ll go that route.
The Saints haven’t had the best track record with first round edge rushers, so I think they’ll take a DL that can play inside or outside. One of my favorite players in the draft:
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Philly went corner earlier, so I don’t see them going back to the secondary. RB could be an option if either Robinson or Gibbs are on the board, they’re not.
As I stated earlier, you can never rule out a Philly trade back. I can really see a team moving up for that extra year of control on Tennessee QB, Hendon Hooker.
Staying put, I think the Eagles add a pass rusher:
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- KC could add a pass rusher to replace Frank Clark. They could add another OT or address the secondary.
Instead, I think they’ll add the speed threat to their receiving corps they haven’t had since Tyreek Hill departed. This addition will make the Chiefs offense even scarier:
This is my final 8 team, 7 round mock draft of 2023. I tried to keep the first round picks the same as version 3.3. Without further ado:
NEW YORK GIANTS
I had the Giants trade up in 3.3 for Quentin Johnston. There were no trades in this mock and Johnston was gone by pick #25, so they pivoted to Zay Flowers.
Even after acquiring Darren Waller, drafting Cameron Latu in the fifth is a good move.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Myles Murphy adds to Philly’s collection of pass rushers. Brian Branch steps into the void left by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s departure.
Tyjae Spears could be very dynamic in this offense.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Steelers stay close to home with their first rounder for the second straight year. Calijah Kancey has drawn comparisons with Aaron Donald.
Jack Campbell could become the next great Steeler linebacker named Jack.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
San Fran has quite a few picks, but they don’t make their first until the end of the third round.
Jammie Robinson & Eli Ricks add depth and starting potential to the secondary.
Niners let Robbie Gould walk, so taking kicker Chad Ryland at the end of the seventh makes sense.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
I’ve been locked in on Seattle taking Tyree Wilson with their first pick, but I think they could be in play for a QB or Jalen Carter at 5.
Speaking of Carter, I had the Seahawks grabbing him at 20 in 3.3, but I’m starting to believe he doesn’t make it out of the top ten now. He doesn’t in this mock, so I have them pivoting to Jordan Addison.
I do have Seattle taking a QB in the fourth round, Tanner McKee.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
I think this is a strong draft for Tampa in their first year of a rebuild.
Adetomiwa Adebawore is one of my favorite players in this draft.
Their top 7 picks should all make contributions as rookies, while Clayton Tune is a nice developmental QB.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Paris Johnson Jr is the top OT in the draft. John Michael Schmitz is the top center. This is how you rebuild an offensive line.
Small draft class for Tennessee, but I like it. Jake Haener is a good developmental QB.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Corner has been a consistent target I’ve had for Washington in the first round, right now I’ve got Cam Smith.
I doubled up on LBs with Drew Sanders & Henry To’o To’o, but the value was too good to pass up.
Nickels and Dimes 