I’m preparing myself to eventually do a full seven round mock draft a week or so before draft day (April 30). I’m starting with a three round mock, not involving speculated trades as that is simply too difficult.

Of course, this makes some of my picks in Mock 2.1 moot, but when possible I’ve tried to keep them the same.

Without further ado, my first three round mock draft of 2021:

ROUND ONE

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No change expected here.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Nearly as locked in as the first pick.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Not buying the Mac Jones rumors, Lynch and Shanahan can’t be that stupid. Lance makes much more sense.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Atlanta should absolutely trade out of this spot unless they’re intent on taking a QB (they shouldn’t be). This is too high for Surtain, but I’m betting on a trade down and Atlanta taking the top CB or Edge rusher on the board.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: Reuniting Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase is enticing, but Cincy should protect the franchise QB before adding weapons.

6. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: This pick could be Sewell if Cincy opts for Chase, or trades out of the 5 spot. Miami may also look at Kyle Pitts.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: Defense should be a higher priority, but the Lions do need to give Jared Goff someone to throw to.

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I doubt Carolina lands Fields without moving up, but if they stay at 8, this pick will still be a QB, Mac Jones.

9. DENVER BRONCOS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Denver may possibly move up for a QB, but if they stay at 9 and the first four are off the board, they’ll pivot to defense.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Could see Dallas go offensive line here, but defense makes the most sense.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: If the Giants land Pitts to go along with free agent signee Kenny Golloday, Daniel Jones has no excuses for not making a giant leap in year three.

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Philly has to be happy Smith is still on the board, could go CB if he’s not.

13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: Chargers are another team happy to see the run on QBs as it pushes a top ten talent down to them.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: My instincts say Minnesota will go defense here, but my head says Vera-Tucker is the smarter play.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: I don’t think Bill Belichick will waste draft capital to move up for Jones, but if he’s there at 15, it makes sense.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: With the top two corners off the board, Arizona opts to replace Kenyan Drake instead.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Raiders could have their pick of edge rushers, but opt to replace Trent Brown instead.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: With Harris off the board, Miami goes with the top Edge rusher. If the Dolphins land Sewell at #6, they could go WR here.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Washington is a candidate to move up for a QB, but I feel they’ll stand pat and add a mauler to their O-Line.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: They may pounce if Jones is still on the board, they’ll certainly pounce if Jenkins is. Could go CB, but Bateman offers the top value and fit here.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: I’m thinking Edge, corner or receiver here, Newsome represents the best value.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: Titans are probably eyeing the same group of players that division rival Indy is, they land the top edge rusher on the board.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Jets continue their offensive make over.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: If Paye reaches his potential, Pittsburgh will have a scary pass rushing tandem.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: Jacksonville goes defense with their second first round selection.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: Dynamic defender represents best player available.

27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: Baltimore goes either edge or WR here. Oweh is raw, but a freakish athlete.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Farley’s injury status pushes him further down than his talent warrants. New Orleans happily scoops him up.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: Packers give Aaron Rodgers a true second option after Davante Adams.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia: Bills add another CB with an eye on a rematch with Mahomes and KC.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: KC jettisoned both starting tackles from last season.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Another disruptive force for a championship defense.

ROUND TWO

33. JAGUARS- Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

34. JETS- Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

35. FALCONS- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

36. DOLPHINS- Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

37. EAGLES- Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

38. BENGALS- Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi

39. PANTHERS- Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

40. BRONCOS- Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

41. LIONS- Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State

42. GIANTS- Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington

43. 49ERS- Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama

44. COWBOYS- Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Washington

45. JAGUARS- Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

46. PATRIOTS- Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma

47. CHARGERS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl

48. RAIDERS- Wyatt Davis, IOL, Ohio State

49. CARDINALS- Creed Humphrey, IOL, Oklahoma

50. DOLPHINS- Daviyon Nixon, IDL, Iowa

51. WASHINGTON- Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

52. BEARS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

53. TITANS- Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

54. COLTS- Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

55. STEELERS- Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky

56. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State: Seattle’s first pick of the draft is a corner with a great pedigree.

57. LOS ANGELES RAMS- Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State: The Rams’ first pick is the second best TE in the class.

58. RAVENS- Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: Ravens double down on Edge rushers with the player I mocked to them in the first round in my last mock.

59. BROWNS- Aaron Robinson, CB, Central Florida

60. SAINTS- Jabril Cox, LB, LSU

61. BILLS- Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami-Fl

62. PACKERS- Brady Christensen, OT, BYU

63. CHIEFS- Milton Williams, IDL, Louisiana Tech

64. BUCCANEERS- Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE, Wake Forest

ROUND THREE

65. JAGUARS- Tommy Togiai, IDL, Ohio State

66. JETS- Elijah Molden, CB, Washington

67. HOUSTON TEXANS- Jevon Holland, S, Oregon: Houston is a mess. Disgruntled franchise QB who faces potentially serious legal trouble. The face of the franchise requested and received his release. They need help on both sides of the ball and at every level. Holland represents best player available.

68. FALCONS- Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame

69. BENGALS- Nico Collins, WR, Michigan

70. EAGLES- Richie Grant, S, Central Florida

71. BRONCOS- Davis Mills, QB, Stanford: Unless they trade up, I don’t think the Broncos will land a QB in the first round. If not, grabbing Mills in the third to compete with Drew Lock makes sense.

72. LIONS- Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse

73. PANTHERS- Quinn Meinerz, IOL, Wisconsin-Whitewater

74. WASHINGTON- Kyle Trask, QB, Florida: Washington waits until day two to grab another young QB to learn the ropes behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.

75. COWBOYS- Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana

76. GIANTS- Pete Werner, LB, Ohio State

77. CHARGERS- D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan

78. VIKINGS- Josh Myers, IOL, Ohio State

79. RAIDERS- Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina

80. RAIDERS- Janarius Robinson, EDGE, Florida State

81. DOLPHINS- Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson

82. WASHINGTON- Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

83. BEARS- Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M: Bears grab a QB with upside to groom behind Andy Dalton.

84. EAGLES- Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

85. TITANS- Spencer Brown, OT, Northern Iowa

86. JETS- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC: Love this pick and fit. Will quickly become Zach Wilson’s favorite target.

87. STEELERS- Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina: Great third round find for a team desperate to improve their running game. Effective in the passing game as well.

88. RAMS- Payton Turner, EDGE, Houston

89. BROWNS- Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami-Fl.

90. VIKINGS- Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida State

91. BROWNS- Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

92. PACKERS- Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

93. BILLS- Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis

94. CHIEFS- Trey Smith, IOL, Tennessee

95. BUCCANEERS- Ben Cleveland, IOL, Georgia

96. (C) PATRIOTS- Olaijah Griffin, CB, USC

97. (C) CHARGERS- Keith Taylor Jr., CB, Washington

98. (C) SAINTS- Marlon Tuipulotu, IDL, USC

99. (C) COWBOYS- James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati

100. (C) TITANS- Benjamin St-Juste, CB, Minnesota

101. (C) LIONS- Jay Tufele, IDL, USC

102. (C) 49ERS- Ar’Darius Washington, S, TCU

103. (C) RAMS- Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan

104. (C) RAVENS- Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

105. (C) SAINTS- Jordan Smith, EDGE, UAB

(C) Represents compensatory picks

The first wave of free agency is over. The Bears didn’t land the big fish, Russell Wilson, and instead settled on Andy Dalton as QB1. I’m actually okay with this, so long as they find a taker for Nick Foles. A quarterback room of Dalton/Foles makes no sense to me, and moving Foles would free up some much needed cap space. I also think it is vital for Ryan Pace to select a QB in this draft, not necessarily in the first round, where it will likely take a costly trade up to land one, but more than a late round flier. A Day Two prospect with upside would be ideal, and I’ve had one in mind for awhile, as you’ll see.

Allen Robinson has signed his franchise tag, meaning the Bears have their best offensive player back for one more year at least, unless they package him in a trade. Regardless, his future in the Windy City is uncertain at best. Rumors have been flying about the Bears shopping Anthony Miller and neither Javon Wims nor Riley Ridley have shown enough to warrant an increased role in the passing game. WR isn’t the Bears biggest need, but it is a need and one that should be addressed fairly early. It’s a deep and talented class of receivers, even a late round flier could have a potential impact.

The Bears precarious cap situation precipitated some painful moves, none more painful than the release of CB Kyle Fuller. Pace did sign Desmond Trufant to replace him, but CB should be addressed in the draft too. Another safety to pair with Eddie Jackson wouldn’t be out of line, either, though there is a chance Tashaun Gipson returns, if the price is right.

It’s my opinion that, outside of QB, the Bears most pressing need is offensive tackle. Bobby Massie has already been released, German Ifredi has returned on a team friendly deal but neither he nor left tackle Charles Leno are more than decent, capable starters. The tackle class is fairly deep, compared to years past, so Chicago should certainly select one no later than Day Two.

Now, I present my second Chicago Bears full seven round mock draft (with trades):

FIRST ROUND, Pick #22- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Five QBs are off the board already, I would have taken Bateman, who reminds me a lot of Allen Robinson, at #20, but Tennessee came knocking with an offer. Moving down two spots, adding another third rounder and getting my guy is a win.

SECOND ROUND, Pick #52- Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State: I was monitoring the QB situation, but none have gone off the board in the second round. I would have considered another trade down or adding a tackle here, but Samuel was too good to pass up. A corner with a great pedigree to pair with last year’s second rounder, Jaylon Johnson, could give Chicago their best corner tandem since the heyday of Tillman/Jennings.

THIRD ROUND, Pick #83- Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame: Still monitoring the QBs and comfortable enough with the extra third round pick I added earlier, I’m thrilled to find Eichenberg still on the board. He’ll start on day one at right tackle and could eventually replace Leno on the left side.

THIRD ROUND, Pick #87- Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M: What I was watching for happened, Davis Mills went with the 86th pick, so I called Denver, which held the 87th (which they had acquired from Pittsburgh in an earlier deal). It cost the 100th pick and next year’s third rounder, but I landed a QB I really like. Mond has good size, a strong arm and great athleticism. I think with good coaching he could develop into a quality starter. I would have pulled the trigger in round two if I needed to, but luckily I landed him in the third.

ROUND FIVE, Pick #164- Shaka Toney, EDGE, Penn State: At this point, I’m pretty pleased with my draft. I’ve addressed our four biggest needs without reaching or selling the farm, so I didn’t feel the need to try to acquire a fourth round pick. Edge rusher isn’t one of the Bears biggest needs, we do have Khalil Mack and you have to think Robert Quinn has to be better this season. Toney represents an intriguing prospect though. He doesn’t possess the measurables or attributes of his more celebrated Nittany Lion teammates, but he has consistently outproduced them. May only be a designated pass rusher, but you can never have enough of those,

ROUND SIX, Pick #204- Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana: I’m in best player available mode at this point in the draft and when it also meets a need, bonus points. Johnson has the potential to become Eddie Jackson’s long term running mate on the back end, at worst he becomes depth and a core special teamer.

ROUND SIX, Pick #208- Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State: Pure upside with this pick. Terry has everything you could want in a receiver, size, speed, hands, he just never put it all together at FSU.

ROUND SIX, Pick #221- Dan Moore, OT, Texas A&M: A big and skilled lineman that can play tackle or guard. Not the most athletic player, but a solid depth piece. Bonus, he blocked for our newest QB in college.

ROUND SIX, Pick #228- Isaiah McDuffie, LB, Boston College: With our final pick, I add a tough play making LB, that may have maxed out his potential. Will be a core special teamer and capable of spelling Roquan Smith or Danny Trevathan in a pinch.

Overall, I’m pretty pleased with this mock draft. I think I added three starters with the first three picks, and a possible future starter at QB. My later round picks all offer intriguing potential and scheme fits, I’m most excited about adding Toney and Terry who both have the physical gifts to become late round gems.

Of course, the whole thing depends on Kellen Mond, did we find our future QB or just a career back up? I really like the upside he offers and I think we have the coaching in place to maximize his potential.

Less than a month until Draft weekend, I can’t wait!

As always, thanks for reading.

The first of the draft dominoes has fallen with San Francisco moving up to the number 3 spot, Miami moving down to 12 then back up to number 6 and Philadelphia moving down to 12.

Quarterbacks will, most certainly, go 1-2-3 and likely fourth, as well. The Deshaun Watson wildcard is still out there, but with the allegations against him (and I’m not commenting on the veracity of the allegations just on their effect on his trade market), the likelihood of a Watson trade is diminished.

As many as five teams could be vying to move up into the top five for a QB, but I think it will likely come down to Carolina or Denver. Which one will cough up a package similar to what the 49ers did?

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No words necessary.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: 95 percent certain this is the pick. Five percent chance the Jets either go with a different QB or trade out of this spot.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: The Niners didn’t give up the bounty they did to move up not to take a QB. They also didn’t do this without having a specific QB in mind, all signs point to that QB being Lance.

4. DENVER BRONCOS (from Atlanta)- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: First things first, Atlanta should absolutely trade out of this spot. Matt Ryan still has years of quality football ahead and they can demand a king’s ransom from a more QB needy team. Let the bidding war begin.

I think the winner of that bidding war will be the Broncos. Teams like Washington and Chicago are too far down in the draft order and can’t offer as much. New England is not likely to sacrifice assets to move up, leaving only Denver and Carolina. Of the two, Denver is probably more desperate. Drew Lock is not the answer and the new GM will want to make a splash. It’ll be costly, but the Broncos will land their franchise QB.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: There’s a temptation to reunite Joe Burrow with his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, but protecting the franchise QB should be a higher priority.

6. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: After trading down to number 12, then trading back up to six, Miami has to be targeting a specific player they know won’t be there later. It could be a tackle, but it seems more likely to be the top WR in the class.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: The Lions lost their top two WRs to free agency, so even though their defense needs work, grabbing a dynamic, game breaking WR is the more likely route.

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: After striking out in their bid for one of the top 4 QBs, Carolina could explore a trade down, but they’d be better served giving Teddy Bridgewater more weapons. Number 8 is high for a TE, but Pitts is more of a hybrid TE/WR. A match up nightmare.

9. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (from Denver through Atlanta)- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: Atlanta trades down a second time, accruing more future assets. The Chargers should be targeting protection for Justin Herbert and they should be wary of Dallas, so they’ll jump ahead of them to secure Slater.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: If Slater was still on the board, Dallas might be tempted to upgrade the offensive line, but defense is the better move. Not only is Surtain the best defensive player on the board, he’s the top corner in the draft.

11. ARIZONA CARDINALS (from NY Giants)- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Arizona needs a replacement for Patrick Peterson and there are a couple teams ahead of them that might go cornerback, so the Cardinals make the move up to grab their guy.

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Eagles move down 6 spots and still land the Heisman Trophy winner. Will this satisfy Philly fans?

13. ATLANTA FALCONS (from LA Chargers)- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Through two trade downs, Atlanta has added a war chest of future assets. Now they address their atrocious defense by adding a tone setting linebacker.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: Mike Zimmer wants to fix his defense and he starts with what I have as the top edge rusher in the class, at the moment.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: I mentioned in my introduction that I didn’t think New England would trade up for a QB, but that didn’t mean they wouldn’t take one. So long as no team leap frogs them (I honestly don’t think any will) and Jones is there at 15, I like the fit. The Belichick-Saban connection is tight.

16. NEW YORK GIANTS (from Arizona)- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: The Giants trade down and take a dynamic defender in hybrid LB/S Owusu-Koramoah.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Jon Gruden wants a ground and pound offense and that starts in the trenches. Darrisaw is the top OL on the board.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: Miami added the top WR in the class earlier, now they add the top RB. The Dolphins are giving Tua all the tools to succeed.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: Tucker proved capable of playing tackle at USC and Washington should try him there, but he may be better suited to play guard. Either way, Washington has upgraded their offensive line.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: The Bears need a QB, but I think they’re more likely to add one on day two. Tackle might be a higher priority, but the value isn’t there at number 20. Allen Robinson’s future in Chicago is uncertain, so picking an ARob clone to either pair with him or replace him is very enticing.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: With Bateman off the board, the WR value isn’t there for the Colts. Defense is a possibility but a road grader at OT seems more likely.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: The value isn’t there at WR, so this pick has to be defense. Titans pass up on an edge rusher to bolster their back end with the top safety in the class.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: The Jets could go several different directions with this pick. I opted to give them the best edge rusher and best player on the board.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: Steelers could opt to upgrade their offensive line or take a running back, but with the loss of Bud Dupree in free agency, pairing the athletic freak in Oweh with TJ Watt seems like a perfectly Pittsburgh move.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: The Jaguars got their franchise QB, now they need to protect him.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jaelon Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Phillips would be a top ten pick on pure talent, injury history pushes him down the board where the Browns eagerly pair him with Myles Garrett to give opposing QBs nightmares.

27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: The Ravens lost both starting edge rushers in free agency and while I have others ranked higher, Ossai seems like he was born to be a Raven.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: The Saints don’t have any real pressing needs, so they go best player available and pair Newsome with Marshon Lattimore.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: It’s high time the Packers give Aaron Rodgers a reliable second option to Davante Adams.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Buffalo is thrilled to see Farley on the board at this point.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri: The Chiefs addressed their offensive line in free agency, but could still use more. However, the value isn’t there at this point. Instead they address their defense with a aggressive run stuffing LB.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: The defending champions go best player available and address one of their few needs.

More dominoes are likely to fall in the coming weeks. Will any team jump up to number 4 before the draft? Will Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson get trades? How about Sam Darnold or Jimmy Garappalo? I’ll update whenever a major move takes place.

As always, thanks for reading.

The first round of the NFL Draft hinges on Quarterbacks and what teams are desperate enough to make the big move.

There are several teams in the QB market in the first round. Obviously, Jacksonville and the New York Jets are well positioned to grab a franchise QB with the first two picks, but others may need to make a trade to get themselves into position.

As I see it, the teams most likely to trade up for a QB are the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Washington Football Team & the Chicago Bears.

To a lesser extent, teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and the reigning champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could take a QB if one falls to them or make a minor move to acquire one,

The elephant in the room, of course, is Deshaun Watson. Houston has to realize that Watson is adamant about never playing another down in a Texans’ uniform. They’ll trade him, preferably to a team with a top ten draft pick and they may still need to trade up further to get a replacement. I address this in this mock, as you will see.

All that being said, I present my first post- free agency mock draft of 2021:

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: Done. This pick is a lock.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Jets could throw the whole draft for a loop if they decide to stick with Sam Darnold. They won’t, the new regime will start fresh with a new franchise QB, and I don’t believe they’re serious players in the Watson sweepstakes.

*TRADE ALERT*

Miami trades the third overall pick to Houston for a package including the eighth overall pick, which Houston acquired from Carolina as part of the package in exchange for Deshaun Watson.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Houston ships Watson to Carolina for a bevy of picks and QB Teddy Bridgewater. With Philly and Atlanta ahead of them, and others jockeying to move into position, the Texans flip some of the picks acquired to Miami and move up to get their new franchise QB. Lance can sit behind Bridgewater for a year to learn the ropes, his upside is HUGE.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Atlanta Falcons trade the fourth overall selection to the Denver Broncos for a package including the ninth overall pick.

4. DENVER BRONCOS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: The phone in Atlanta will be ringing off the hook, ultimately Denver gives Atlanta the best return and grabs their franchise QB. They have to have seen enough from Drew Lock to know he’s a decent back up at best, time to take another shot.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: The run on Quarterbacks allows Cincy’s preferred target to fall to them at #5. They need to protect Joe Burrow, they can find him weapons later in the draft.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Philly could pounce if Justin Fields is still available, but I don’t see them trading up. They’ll stick with Jalen Hurts at QB and bring in a high end back up like Philly hero Nick Foles. The Eagles will likely ship out Zach Ertz on draft night and Pitts would fit in nicely as a hybrid TE/WR and overall match up nightmare.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: The Lions lost their entire receiving corps to free agency, lucky for them they have their pick of a deep and talented class of wide receivers,

8. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: Dolphins trade out of the three spot and add more draft capital, then scoop up Tua Tagoviola’s former Crimson Tide teammate, who may be the most dynamic player in the entire draft.

9. ATLANTA FALCONS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Atlanta trades down and adds the top corner in the draft to a porous defense.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Dallas Cowboys trade the tenth overall selection to the Los Angeles Chargers for a package including the thirteenth overall selection.

10. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: In the first non quarterback related trade, the Chargers target a stud tackle and jump 3 spots to secure him.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Giants have to give Daniel Jones the weapons to succeed. (As I was writing this, NY signed Kenny Golloday, which may get me to rethink this pick in later mocks)

12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Niners will explore a trade up for a QB, but ultimately decide the price is too high. Instead, I think they’ll trade a later round pick or two to the Jets and bring in Sam Darnold to compete with Jimmy Garrapolo. With their first round pick, the Niners snag a replacement for Richard Sherman.

13. DALLAS COWBOYS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: The Cowboys should be addressing defense, but rebuilding their offensive line is another priority. Darrisaw is simply too good to pass up here.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: The Vikings offensive line needs help, but Mike Zimmer prides himself on defense and Minnesota’s was lacking in 2020.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Parsons is a top ten talent, but character concerns and fit push him down the board. Bill Belichick won’t hesitate to add another piece to his defense.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: Cardinals lost Kenyan Drake in free agency, so they nab his replacement here.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Jon Gruden would love to have a ground and pound offense and that starts in the trenches. Jenkins would add a mean streak to the Raiders’ offensive line.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Miami Dolphins trade the eighteenth overall selection to the Chicago Bears for a package including the twentieth overall pick.

18. CHICAGO BEARS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Chicago is picking a QB in this draft. They’ll explore a trade up into the top ten for a shot at Lance/ Fields but ultimately don’t have enough draft capital to outbid Houston or Denver. They may be content to look at second or third round prospects (Trask, Mills, Mond), but when Jones gets within range they pull the trigger to leapfrog Washington and grab their potential franchise QB.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: With Jones off the board, Washington goes best player available and selects an enticing hybrid LB/S to add to an already stellar defense.

20. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Miami does it again, trades down a couple spots, adding draft capital and then adds another weapon to Tua’s supporting cast. Etienne is a fantastic rusher and accomplished pass catcher, the Dolphins offense could make great strides in 2021.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Indianapolis Colts trade the twenty first overall selection to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for a package including the twenty seventh overall pick.

21. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: The Ravens lost 2 edge rushers in free agency, when Paye slips out of the top twenty Baltimore swings the deal to scoop him up.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: The Titans had eyes for Paye but get thwarted by Baltimore, instead they add a potential lock down corner.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Jets could go offensive line here, but Bateman is too good to pass up. They give Zach Wilson a potential number one receiver to grow and learn with.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: The Steelers lost Bud Dupree in free agency, but rebuilding their offensive line trumps adding another edge rusher. Vera-Tucker could be a day one starter at guard or tackle.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Have to protect the new franchise QB and Cosmi is the best tackle on the board.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: The Browns go best player available and pair Phillips with Myles Garrett to form a potentially lethal edge rushing duo.

27. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: The Colts trade down and add a corner to an already solid defense.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Drew Brees retired but New Orleans won’t trade up or reach for a QB. They lost Trey Hendrickson in free agency and find his replacement here.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: The Packers could upgrade Aaron Rodgers’ protection but opt to give him another weapon instead.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Best player available scenario for Buffalo and they snag a disruptive force for their defensive line.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan: The Chiefs made some moves in free agency to bolster Patrick Mahomes’ protection, another addition is not out of order.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: The Super Bowl champs go best player available and add the best safety in the draft to a stellar defense.

There are still plenty of free agency moves to come, and dominoes to fall in the QB carousel. Also, as pro days progress we should get a better idea of how teams view certain prospects. I’ll do another mock in a few weeks, and probably a seven round mock for some select teams.

Thanks for reading, as always.

Doing a mock draft with projected trades prior to free agency is an exercise in futility. You pretty much have to speculate on what free agents wind up where, especially with quarterbacks, but also including wide receivers, running backs and other key positions.

I decided if I was going to do a mock with trades prior to the start of free agency (March 17), I was going to be BOLD with my projections. In doing so, I’ve made predictions on how the QB carousel plays out along with a couple other high profile players.

Without further ado, I present my first mock draft of 2021 with projected trades.

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No need to get too crazy here. This pick is set in stone.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Most view NY as the most likely landing spot for Deshaun Watson should he force Houston to trade him. It makes sense, the Jets have the most draft capital with which to pry him away from the Texans. However, if everyone thinks this could happen, then it’s not bold enough. Instead the Jets stand pat and use this pick to draft their franchise QB. This pick changed from my first mock, but I’m becoming convinced NY is enamored with Wilson.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS (Projected trade w/ Miami)- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: Admittedly, this BOLD trade idea did not originate with me. The credit goes to Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports, but as soon as I saw it the idea became cemented in my mind.

In my version, Houston would acquire this pick, the 81st pick in this draft & Miami’s 2022 first round pick PLUS Tua Tagoviola in exchange for Deshaun Watson. In my mind, it makes total sense. Houston might get a bigger draft haul from the Jets, but they would still need to draft a QB. Here they get a second year, possible franchise QB plus a decent draft haul, which they can use exclusively to improve Tua’s surrounding cast.

For Miami, I doubt they’d move on from Tua after only one year UNLESS it was for a superstar like Watson. Deshaun Watson would instantly make the Dolphins a Super Bowl contender AND they would still hold on to their other first round pick in this draft.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I’ve rejected the idea of Atlanta using this pick to grab Matt Ryan’s replacement, but here I’m projecting a BOLD move that is entirely of my own making. What if the Falcons were to trade Ryan? I’ll address that a bit later.

5. DENVER BRONCOS (Projected trade w/Cincinnati)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Some team is going to make the move to this spot to grab the last of the big 4 quarterbacks. In this case, I’m thinking Denver. Drew Lock is not the answer and the Broncos need to get ahead of Carolina & Philadelphia to ensure themselves of getting Lance. They pay a premium to move up four spots, but they may finally have their next franchise QB.

Trade details: Denver acquires this pick in exchange for the #9 & #235 picks this year plus next years first and third round picks.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Rumor has it Philly covets Fields but they won’t get him without trading up. They might be better served giving the reins fully to Jalen Hurts, acquiring a veteran back up (Nick Foles?) and improving the supporting cast. Addressing the offensive line wouldn’t be the worst idea, but adding the Heisman trophy winner to last year’s first round pick Jaelen Raegor would vastly improve their receiving corps.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: Detroit’s entire receiving corps are set to hit free agency and I had the Lions addressing the position in my first mock, but Paye wasn’t available at #7 in that one. Defense has been the Lions’ Achilles heel, adding a dynamic pass rusher is the right move.

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: I don’t see the Panthers paying the steep price it would require to move up for a QB, not with Teddy Bridgewater in the fold. Parsons filling their Luke Keuchly void would be a good step in returning Carolina’s defense to relevancy.

9. CINCINNATI BENGALS (Projected trade w/ Denver)- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: Cincy trades down 4 spots for a nice draft haul AND still lands the player they would likely have taken at #5. Sewell is the best tackle in the draft and protecting franchise QB Joe Burrow trumps giving him more weapons, for now.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: One way or another, Dak Prescott will remain in Dallas for at least 2021, meaning the Cowboys most pressing needs are on the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner is always a welcome addition.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Yes, NY has Evan Engram at TE, but Pitts is so much more than just a TE. He’s a WR in a tight end’s body. Some think he may be the best pass catcher in the draft. The Giants need to give Daniel Jones more reliable targets.

12. ATLANTA FALCONS (Projected trade w/ San Francisco)- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Here’s the BOLD move I alluded to earlier. Atlanta ships Matt Ryan to San Fran in exchange for this pick, pick #156 this year and a third rounder next year. Atlanta can sign a veteran bridge QB until Fields is ready to take over (Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton would make sense) and use this pick to help their porous defense.

San Francisco is only a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance with an erratic and oft-injured Jimmy Garrapolo at QB. The 49ers boast a solid roster that was decimated by injuries last year. They don’t need to groom a young QB, they need a solid veteran QB to take the reins. Remember this, Matt Ryan was the NFL MVP the last time he was in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to protect him.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Offensive line is a possibility, but it feels like Mike Zimmer would love to improve his defense. This is the same position I had the Vikings addressing in my first mock, but a different player. I’ve become convinced that most scouts have Rousseau higher than Joseph Ossai.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: I had NE taking Mac Jones in my first mock and he’s still available here, but two things have changed. First, I think Belichick will bring back Jimmy G, either by trade or free agency should San Fran release him and Waddle is available at this spot. No matter who plays QB for the Patriots they need better receivers.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: The Cardinals could have their pick of the best RBs in the draft here, or improve Kyler Murray’s protection, but Horn feels like a natural fit for the Arizona defense.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah: First, the Raiders will not trade Derek Carr, so no need to reach for a QB here. Second, LV could go in several directions with this pick but a hybrid LB/S like Owusu-Koramoah seems like the kind of player Jon Gruden would love.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Miami made the BOLD move to acquire Deshaun Watson and I’m going to boldly predict they land RB Aaron Jones in free agency. Their offensive line is decent and can be addressed later in the draft. Their defense is solid. What they could use is another pass catcher for Watson. Bateman is a solid WR with a high floor and high ceiling.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: My BOLD prediction for the Football Team is that they’ll sign Cam Newton in free agency, reuniting him with Ron Rivera. I think Washington really likes Taylor Heinecke, who showed promise late in the season and won’t look to make a big splash at QB. Instead they’ll conserve their resources for this year and improve other areas. Darrisaw is a plug and play tackle that could alleviate the possible loss of Brandon Scherff. This is the same position, but a different player, that I had Washington addressing in my first mock, reflecting a change in my thinking of player rankings.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC: I don’t think Chicago has the draft capital to move up for a QB nor trade for a veteran like Watson or Carr. I also think they’re unlikely to move Nick Foles’ contract, so they may be stuck with him. What I think the Bears will do at QB is acquire Sam Darnold from the Jets.

Carson Wentz was traded for a third round pick and a conditional second rounder. Darnold’s price should be lower. I’m thinking a conditional third rounder and one of Chicago’s three sixth rounders this year could get it done. The hope for the Bears is that Darnold wins the starting job and shows signs of being the QB Mitchell Trubisky never would be. If he fails, a new regime in Chicago would be better positioned to draft a franchise QB next year.

I also need to address Allen Robinson. Somehow, someway he’ll remain in Chicago through 2021, so no need to go WR here. This pick should therefore be used to improve the offensive line. With Darrisaw gone, the Bears nab the versatile Vera-Tucker instead.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida: Indy addressed their biggest issue by acquiring Carson Wentz from Philly and they did so without relinquishing this pick. The Colts are a solid team with very few holes. TY Hilton may leave in free agency, so a complimentary receiver next to Michael Pittman could be in order.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Azeez Ojulari. EDGE, Georgia: Tennessee has to get better defensively. I had them taking Rousseau in my first mock, but he’s off the board here. Ojulari is next on the list of Edge rushers.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: The Jets landed their new franchise QB earlier, now they need to give him weapons. WR is possible, but the position is deep in this draft. Nothing helps a young QB like a solid running game, Jets have their pick of the litter at RB.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Ben Roethlisberger will most likely come back for one more season and the Steelers took a flyer on Dwayne Haskins so I don’t see them drafting a QB this year. Pittsburgh’s running game was practically non-existent last season and they may lose Alejandro Villenueva in free agency, they need to improve their blocking.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama: The Jags got their franchise QB, now they need to keep him upright. Same position but different player as my first mock as my player rankings evolve.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Ifeatu Melifownu, CB, Syracuse: Cleveland actually has very few glaring needs. A solid corner opposite Denzel Ward would be a nice addition.

27. ATLANTA FALCONS (Projected trade w/ Baltimore)- Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama: The Falcons make another BOLD move trading Julio Jones and the 183rd pick in this draft to Baltimore for this pick and a third rounder next year. Atlanta uses the pick to nab the top interior defensive lineman in the draft.

Baltimore would likely have used this pick to draft a WR, instead they give Lamar Jackson a reliable, future Hall of Fame pass catcher.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: It feels like Drew Brees will retire. Sean Payton may say he’s fine with Taysom Hill as his starter, but he can’t pass up Jones here.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Travis Etienne- RB, Clemson: I predicted that Aaron Jones would take his talents to South Beach, so RB becomes a need for the Packers. Getting Etienne, who is a decent pass catcher, would allow the Aaron Rodgers led offense to not miss a beat.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Joesph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: Buffalo has a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. You can never have enough Edge rushers. Ossai wasn’t available here in my first mock, the Bills pounce on him now.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: KC absolutely has to improve Patrick Mahomes’ protection. Jenkins was off the board in this spot in my first mock, the Chiefs don’t hesitate.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: The champs seem likely to lose Shaq Barrett in free agency. Replacing him with a freak athlete like Oweh isn’t a bad consolation prize.

I may attempt a three round mock before free agency, or I may not. I may just relax and see how things unfold on March 17.

As always, thanks for reading.

For my first mock draft of 2021, I’m not considering any trades or speculating on who ends up where during the QB carousel. I do, very briefly, consider possible losses via free agency.

Some dates to remember: Free Agency officially starts on March 17, with legal tampering allowed on March 15. The NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 29.

I used TheDraftNetwork.com to make this mock draft.

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No need to over-think this. Lawrence is the best QB prospect to enter the draft since Peyton Manning.
2. NEW YORK JETS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I believe the new regime in NY will move on from Sam Darnold. Either they take Fields here or move the pick to get Deshaun Watson.
3. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: There is some chatter about Miami moving on from Tua already, not a chance. The Dolphins may trade out of this spot, but for now they take the best tackle in the draft.
4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: Many pundits think Atlanta will take Matt Ryan’s successor here, I’m not convinced yet. Instead I think they strengthen the defense with the best Edge rusher.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: With Sewell off the board, Cincy reunites Joe Burrow with one of his favorite college targets.
6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Eagles continue their search for a true #1 receiver and land the Heisman trophy winner.
7. DETROIT LIONS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: I had been targeting Zach Wilson here, but the Stafford/Goff trade changed that. Lions add what may be the most dynamic WR in the draft.
8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Another team that could be players in the QB market, but I like the fit of Parsons stepping into the Luke Keuchly void too much to pull the trigger here.
9. DENVER BRONCOS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Wilson won’t be here at #9 on draft night, and I’m not sure Denver trades up to get him, but they can’t pass up moving on from Drew Lock if given the chance.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Unless they somehow let Dak Prescott walk, Dallas has to address the defense here.
11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Pitts isn’t a normal TE, he’s a young Jimmy Graham type. Physical mismatch for any individual defender.
12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Niners likely would need to move up to land Lance, but I like the fit here if they move on from Jimmy G.
13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to protect him.
14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: It just feels like Mike Zimmer will address his defense with this pick.
15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Jones might not last this long, but he feels like a perfect fit for a Belichick team.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Arizona could go in several directions, just feels like defense takes priority.
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: Another team that may be in the QB market. Owusu-Koramoah just feels like a Gruden guy to me.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: WR is a possibility here, but nothing helps a young QB like a solid running game.
19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Yet another team in the QB market, won’t have a shot without trading up, so they bolster the protection instead.
20. CHICAGO BEARS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Chicago is also in the QB mix, but solidifies the line instead.
21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Another team in the QB market, they address defense instead.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami: Feels like the Titans must address defense here.
23. NEW YORK JETS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: This would be a home run of a first round for the Jets. Landing the franchise QB and a number one receiver.
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: Steelers run game was atrocious this year. They address blocking first.
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan: The Jaguars landed their franchise QB, now they need to protect him.
26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa: Cleveland finally ended their playoff drought, not many holes in this roster. Another disruptive force on defense is never a bad idea.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: Giving Lamar Jackson another weapon seems a likely direction for the Ravens to go.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri: As good as the Saints’ defense can be, they’ve been a little lacking at the second level. Bolton can change that.
29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Improving the offensive line seems the most likely direction for the Packers to take.
30. BUFFALO BILLS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami: Defensive side of the ball is Bills’ most pressing need. Can never have enough pass rushers.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame: As the Super Bowl proved, Chiefs need to protect Patrick Mahomes better.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Defending Super Bowl champs have the luxury of picking the best player available. Adding to an already impressive defense is an added bonus.

1. Cleveland Browns– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– If I’m Cleveland’s GM, knowing the track record of bad QB’s, I’m taking Darnold. Don’t get me wrong, I love Josh Allen, I think he’s going to be great, but there is risk. The Browns should be as risk averse as possible, they don’t need a home run here, just a hit. Allen is a swing for the fences, and a perfectly Browns move.
2. New York Giants– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– All the talk of the Giants wanting a ‘gold jacket’ guy is pure obfuscation. The chances of being in a position to land their next franchise QB without selling the farm are slim. Eli isn’t getting any younger, and Darnold fell in their lap. Slam dunk.
3. New York Jets– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– This is obviously a QB and I think the Jets had their sights set on either Allen or Mayfield. With Cleveland taking Allen, Mayfield heads to New York.
4. Cleveland Browns– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– Once again, if I’m John Dorsey, this wouldn’t be the pick. I’d pair Chubb with last year’s overall number one Myles Garrett and form a devastating edge rush tandem for years to come. Even after adding Carlos Hyde, the Browns can’t resist adding the best player in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– Rumor has Elway enamored with Mayfield. With him off the board, Denver opts to improve the protection for Case Keenum with the best OL in the draft.
6. Indianapolis Colts– Bradley Chubb,EDGE, NC State– I had Indy trading out of this spot in my last mock, but that was with Chubb off the board. Here, they stay put and take the guy they would have at #3.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Derwin James, S, Florida State– I mocked Barkley here in both my previous mock drafts, but he’s off the board here. Tampa opts to shore up the back end of their defense instead.
8. Buffalo Bills*– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– When Rosen begins to fall, Buffalo knows they need to get in front of Miami and also compete with New England. They pay a steep price to move up, but not as steep as it could have been to get their franchise QB.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– San Fran lands the top corner in the draft.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– Gruden has made some questionable moves since taking over so this pick could be a wild card. Smith is one of the least risky picks in the first round and fills a major need.
11. Miami Dolphins– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– Miami covets Rosen, but they don’t have the draft capital to prevent Buffalo from leap frogging them. They settle for a replacement for Ndamukong Suh.
12. Chicago Bears*– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Once Nelson is off the board, Chicago is a willing trade partner for a QB needy team, Buffalo comes calling. Netting another second round pick and recouping the third rounder they gave up to get Trubisky, the Bears still add they guy I mocked to them at #8 in my first two mock drafts. Big win for Ryan Pace.
13. Washington Redskins– Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama– The best DB in the draft falls to #13 due to the uncertainty of his position in an NFL defense. Washington benefits and will happily find a spot for him.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– One of the few picks I haven’t changed for any of my mocks. It makes too much sense, especially in a division that has seen a major upgrade in the passing game.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– I’ve been seeing WR in this spot quite a bit recently, but I still think Arizona has to upgrade the QB spot. Bradford cannot stay healthy and Glennon is just terrible.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– I could flip flop the Arizona/Baltimore picks, I’m pretty confident Jackson and Ridley will go to either of them.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers could be the class of the AFC West this season, keeping Philip Rivers upright will make or break their season. Adding the best OT in the draft should help.
18. Seattle Seahawks– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– Seattle lost a lot of firepower on their once vaunted D, but the O-Line has been a problem for years.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– I was convinced Dallas would go defense here, then they released Dez Bryant. They need a target for Dak Prescott. For my money, Sutton is the best WR in the draft.
20. Detroit Lions– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– Mocked a RB here in my last mock, but I remembered Matt Patricia is a defensive guy from the Belichick school. Landry beefs up the Detroit pass rush.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– Offensive line is a definite possibility, but with Vontaze Burfict suspended again, Cincy looks to his future replacement.
22. Buffalo Bills– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Buffalo had to trade this pick to get their QB in my last mock. They keep it in this one and use it strengthen their defense.
23. New England Patriots– Leighton Vander Esche, LB, Boise State– Vander Esche just seems like the perfect Patriots linebacker.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– I absolutely love this fit. Adding weapons and/or protection for Cam Newton is a possibility, but I think the value is lacking at this spot.
25. Tennessee Titans– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– I’ve gone back and forth on this pick. Mocked Davenport in my first mock, went Wynn in my second. I’m back to Davenport.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Taven Bryan, DL, Florida– I mocked Payne to the Falcons in my previous two mocks. He’s off the board now, but the need remains. Rumor has it Atlanta is enamored with Bryan.
27. New Orleans Saints– Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State– I flirted with the idea of the Saints picking Drew Brees’ successor here, but instead gave them the TE they’ve been lacking since Jimmy Graham.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– The Steelers have been the hardest team for me to mock, I’ve had them going in three different directions now. Guice is the RB that will allow Pittsburgh to let someone else break the bank for Le’Veon Bell after this season.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA– Plenty of mock drafts have the Jags taking a QB here, but that really isn’t Tom Coughlin’s style. Building from the trenches is, after adding Andrew Norwell, they draft the best tackle available.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– The top ranked defense, the jewel of free agency, a dynamic RB coming back from an injury shortened rookie season, solid receiving corps. Minnesota’s needs are few, offensive line is one and they add the best lineman available.
31. New England Patriots– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado– I mocked a WR here last time, but the value isn’t really there. I do think the Patriots are in the market for Tom Brady’s successor, but their eyes are on Rosen, they won’t reach for anyone else. Instead, they’ll fill a need with the best player available.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida– The defending champs have few needs and none offer a similar value at this spot. Eagles traded for Worley, then released him after his arrest. This pick makes sense.

* Speculated trade between Chicago and Buffalo- Chicago trades #8 overall to Buffalo for #12, #56 and #96 overall.