The Super Bowl matchup is set. For the record, I was 2-0 straight up and versus the spread on Championship Sunday, making me 8-4 both straight up and against the points in the postseason. I’ll have my Super Bowl pick next week. (Spoiler alert- my mantra has been ‘bet against Mahomes at your own peril’).
This will be my last mock draft until after the Super Bowl. This mock draft includes one trade, with the Chicago Bears sending Justin Fields to the Las Vegas Raiders for a second rounder this year and a conditional second rounder next year.
I used Pro Football Network’s mock draft tool and did a three rounder. Let’s hit it:
ROUND ONE
I’m not entirely convinced that Chicago will move on from Fields, but as long as they hold the #1 pick, Williams will be the selection.
(Pick acquired from Carolina)
Washington would probably love to get their hands on Williams, but they’ll settle for the more prototypical QB in Maye.This is the first time I’ve mocked a QB to New England (in the first round), but I’m convinced that new HC Jerrod Mayo isn’t going to want to start his tenure with just the QBs currently on the roster.Arizona benefits from the run on QBs to land who I believe is the best player in the draft. An ideal scenario for the Cardinals.I love this fit for the Chargers. Bowers is one of the best players in the draft and worth a top five pick despite positional value.Giants could go multiple directions here, and I wouldn’t rule out a move for QB, but for now I have them taking the top tackle on the board.Tennessee continues to rebuild their offensive line. If Alt is the top tackle, then Fashanu is 1A.Atlanta needs a QB, but they’re out of range for one here. After years of focusing on offensive skill positions in the first round, they go with the top defensive player.Bears got their new franchise QB and here they add a perfect complement to DJ Moore.Jets need to improve their pass protection. I think Fuaga is going to start shooting up draft boards and could get into the mix of first tackle off the board.I think Minnesota will re-sign Kirk Cousins, and their skill positions are pretty set. Defense seems like the play and here they add the top corner.Denver is most likely moving on from Russell Wilson, but they’re really not in range to draft a replacement in the first round. Instead, they’ll take the top defensive lineman.In this scenario, I have Vegas making a deal for Justin Fields, leaving them free to address other needs here. New Orleans could go several directions with this pick, for now I have them going offensive line.Indy benefits from Nabers’ inexplicable fall out of the top ten.Latu has top ten talent, but a spotty injury history drives him down the board. Seattle gladly scoops him up.Jacksonville stays in state to beef up their pass rush.Cincinnati may lose Tee Higgins in free agency, they draft a replacement here.Rams opt to bolster their offensive line.I feel Pittsburgh is likely to go corner here, Wiggins is the top one on the board.After the injuries to their pass rushers, an edge is a distinct possibility, but I have Miami opting to upgrade their offensive line.Philadelphia needs to get younger in the secondary, but they also need to improve their linebacker play.Houston pairs Robinson with last year’s first rounder, Will Anderson.
(Pick acquired from Cleveland)
Dallas needs to improve their secondary, can never go wrong with a Georgia defensive player.Green Bay addresses their secondary with the top safety in the draft.Tampa could go many directions here, I have them going offensive line.Cardinals went offense on their first pick, they go defense here.
(Pick acquired from Houston)
I feel that Buffalo will go with either a defensive back or a wide receiver here. Corner holds the most value.Detroit addressing their secondary seems like the best move.Baltimore hit on a first round receiver last year, but they could still use more.Imagine how unstoppable Kansas City would be with more reliable pass catchers.San Fran has very few weaknesses, but interior offensive line might be one of them.
ROUND TWO
WAS acquired #40 from CHI
GB acquired #41 from NYJ
* CHI acquires #44 from LV (mock trade for Justin Fields)
NO acquired #45 from DEN
NYG acquired #47 from SEA
PHI acquired #50 from NO
SOME NOTES: Panthers use their first pick to get Bryce Young a receiver. Falcons get their QB in the second round. Bears use the second rounder they got for Justin Fields to select an edge rusher. Eagles draft a potential replacement for Jason Kelce. Browns use their first pick on a wide receiver. Chiefs land a potential successor for Travis Kelce.
ROUND THREE
ARZ acquired #71 from TEN
DET acquired #73 from MIN
ATL acquired #74 from JAX
SEA acquired #78 from NO
HOU acquired #86 from PHI
ARZ acquired #90 from HOU
GB acquired #91 from BUF
* Picks #96-100 are compensatory picks
WAS acquired #100 from SF
SOME NOTES: Giants take a possible replacement for Daniel Jones. Jets land a successor to Aaron Rodgers. Bears take a replacement for Eddie Jackson.
This weekend we find out who will meet in the Super Bowl, as the NFL season winds down. Seems like it just started, but it’s almost February.
Last weekend, I went 3-1 straight up but an even more impressive 4-0 versus the spread. Leaving me at 6-4 in the postseason, both straight up and versus the spread. Let’s see how I do this week:
Kansas City at Baltimore
I really, really want to pick Baltimore. I very much want to see the Ravens win and I want to see Lamar Jackson in the Super Bowl. Not only that, but I think Baltimore is the superior team, BUT this is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re the new Brady & the Patriots, bet against them at your own risk. Add in that the Chiefs have played their best football the last two weeks and I’m taking KC. Chiefs (+4) 23-20.
Detroit at San Francisco
I picked the Niners to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs, I thought they’d have a cakewalk to Vegas, but it’s turned into a battle. Green Bay gave them all they could handle last week, and now they host a Lions team that seems to have a date with destiny. San Fran may or may not have Deebo Samuel for this one, but I’m still picking them to win. I will take the Lions (+7.5) and the points, though. 49ers 30-24.
We’re down to 4 teams left in the NFL postseason. A couple coaching vacancies have been filled and more seem close to being filled. I decided to do one mock draft with trades. My Chicago Bears are the key to the draft, holding two top ten picks, including #1 overall and a young QB they may decide to build around. In this mock, they do just that, trading out of number one and building around Justin Fields.
Here we go:
1. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (from Chicago via Carolina)- Caleb Williams, QB, USC: Bears decide to build around Fields and shop the first overall pick, Commanders are motivated to overpay a bit to move up one spot and grab their new face of the franchise.
2. ATLANTA FALCONS (from Chicago via Washington)- Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina: Bears do it again, taking advantage of a QB needy team, this time the Falcons. Atlanta doesn’t have a coach yet, but no matter who lands there, QB is a must.
3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State: Patriots miss out on the top two QBs, but ‘settle’ for the best player in the draft.
4. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: I think Arizona is a prime candidate to trade back, but here they stick and take WR who isn’t as far back of MHJ as some may think.
5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: Tight ends in the top five is a very rare occurrence, but TEs of Bowers capabilities are just as rare. Chargers are also a perfect fit.
6. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (from NY Giants)- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: I don’t think the Raiders will roll into 2024 with Aidan O’Connell as QB1. They may shop for a veteran, but here I have them making the move for the Heisman Trophy winner.
7. TENNESSEE TITANS- Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame: Titans continue to rebuild their offensive line by adding the top tackle in the draft.
8. CHICAGO BEARS (from Atlanta)- Rome Odunze, WR, Washington: Bears stick with Fields and recoup a windfall to move down twice to number eight, where they add a perfect complement to DJ Moore.
9. NEW YORK GIANTS (from Chicago)- Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State: After trading out of number 6, the Giants move back up to snag Fashanu ahead of the Jets.
10. NEW YORK JETS- JC Latham, OT, Alabama: Jets almost surely have to go offensive line here, Latham is the best on the board here.
11. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama: Vikings could potentially lose Danielle Hunter in free agency, they draft a replacement here.
12. DENVER BRONCOS- Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois: Broncos are in QB limbo, Russ is almost surely gone & they’ve been boxed out on the top prospects in the draft. They pivot and address their defensive line instead of.
13. CHICAGO BEARS (from NY Giants via Las Vegas)- Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State: Ryan Poles puts on a master class, moving down again, adding more capital & then drafting a perfect book end pass rusher from Montez Sweat.
14. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA: Latu’s injury history is the only reason he’s not the top edge rusher off the board, the Saints gladly scoop him up here.
15. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: Colts take the top corner in the draft.
16. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (from Seattle)- Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson: Eagles need to address their secondary and they make a move up the board to get their guy.
17. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa: Jaguars beef up their secondary.
18. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State: Bengals may lose Tee Higgins in free agency, here’s a replacement.
19. LOS ANGELES RAMS- Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: Rams continue to rebuild their offensive line.
21. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State: Offensive or defensive line feels like the play for the Dolphins, they go tackle here.
22. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (from Philadelphia)- Demeioun Robinson, EDGE, Penn State: Seahawks trade down and add a premium pass rusher.
23. HOUSTON TEXANS(from Cleveland)- Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington: Texans take a pass rusher to line up opposite Will Anderson.
24. DALLAS COWBOYS- Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia: Cowboys need to bolster their secondary.
25. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington: Packers take a possible successor to David Bakhtiari.
26. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (from Tampa Bay)- Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU: Is there a playoff team with a more glaring need than KC and WR? Here, the Chiefs move up to grab their guy.
27. ARIZONA CARDINALS (from Houston)- Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Cardinals use their second first rounder to address their secondary.
28. BUFFALO BILLS- Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon: Bills add another weapon for Josh Allen.
29. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (from Kansas City)- Kalen King, CB, Penn State: Buccaneers move back and take the next great defensive back from Penn State.
30. DETROIT LIONS- Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami-FL: Lions add more talent to their secondary.
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Graham Barton, IOL, Duke: Niners address one of their few weaknesses by taking the top interior lineman in the draft.
32. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas: Ravens add another receiver to their arsenal.
Eight teams left. Super Wildcard Weekend was definitely wild & surprising. I went 3-3 straight up, 2-4 versus the spread. Here’s hoping I do better this week.
Houston at Baltimore
The Texans destroyed Cleveland last week and no QB is playing better than rookie CJ Stroud. The Ravens laid an egg the last time they earned the AFC top seed, but this is a different Ravens team and a different Lamar Jackson. They’re laying a lot of points, but I’m taking them. Ravens (-9.5) 31-13
Green Bay at San Francisco
The Packers looked like Aaron Rodgers era Packers teams versus the Cowboys. I really thought the Niners would have a cakewalk to the NFC title, their path got a lot tougher. I’m still picking San Fran, but I’ll take the Packers and the points. (GB +9.5) 49ers 30-27.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
The Bucs looked good against Philly, but let’s face it, the Eagles checked out weeks ago. The Lions, meanwhile, are starting to sense destiny. Detroit will be rocking on Sunday, give me the Lions (-6.5) 30-10
Kansas City at Buffalo
The Chiefs have had Buffalo’s number in the playoffs and they looked as good as they have all year last week. However, Patrick Mahomes has never had to go on the road in the postseason before. Plus, last week I picked Buffalo to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, so I have to stick with that. I hate going all chalk, so I’ll hedge those bets by taking KC & the points. (KC +3) Bills 24-23.
24 of the first round spots are now locked. Eight more to be decided.
Once again, I’m not doing trades in this mock, with one exception. With the Chicago Bears holding the first overall pick, a decision has to be made about Justin Fields. Since I’m not trading picks here, I am mocking a trade of Fields to the Atlanta Falcons. I don’t think the Bears will get the #8 pick, as Mel Kiper suggests, so I gave them Atlanta’s second rounder.
I did two full rounds for this mock. Let’s go:
ROUND ONE
1. CHICAGO BEARS (from Carolina)- Caleb William, QB, USC: Bears get their new franchise QB.
2. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS- Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina: Commanders get a new face of the franchise.
3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State: Patriots ‘settle’ for the best player in the draft.
4. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama: Cardinals biggest issues are on defense.
5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: Chargers take the best TE prospect since Kyle Pitts.
6. NEW YORK GIANTS- Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: Giants need more reliable pass catchers.
7. TENNESSEE TITANS- Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame: Titans continue to rebuild their offensive line.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS- Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA: Falcons land perhaps the most dynamic pass rusher in the draft.
9. CHICAGO BEARS- Rome Odunze, WR, Washington: Bears give their new QB another top notch weapon.
10. NEW YORK JETS- Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State: Jets have to strengthen their offensive line.
11. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama: Vikings continue to rebuild their defense.
12. DENVER BRONCOS- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: Broncos move on from Russ and draft his replacement.
13. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: Raiders take another stab at corner.
14. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois: Saints add the best interior defensive lineman in the draft.
15. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State: Colts add a top notch pass rusher.
16. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State: Seahawks add a pass rusher to their defense.
17. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa: Jaguars opt to upgrade their secondary.
18. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State: Bengals draft a possible replacement for Tee Higgins.
19. LOS ANGELES RAMS- JC Latham, OT, Alabama: Rams continue to rebuild their offensive line.
20. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson: Steelers add to their secondary.
21. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State: Dolphins opt to upgrade their offensive line.
22. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami-FL: Eagles need fresh blood in their secondary.
23. HOUSTON TEXANS (from Cleveland)- Troy Fautanu, IOL, Washington: Texans add the best interior offensive lineman in the draft.
Houston & CJ Stroud are a great story, but so is Cleveland & Joe Flacco. Give me the Browns (-1.5) 24-20
Miami at Kansas City
I really want to pick Miami, but with all their injuries it’s a hard pick to justify, add in historic cold and this could be all KC. Chiefs (-4) 24-6
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
The weather in Buffalo might actually help Pittsburgh keep this from being a rout, but Buffalo still wins. (Pit +9.5) Bills 20-12
Green Bay at Dallas
Green Bay has a real chance to pull an upset here, but I think Dallas finds a way to win. (GB +7) Cowboys 27-24
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit
I’m picking with my heart here, I want Jared Goff to stick it to Sean McVay & the Rams but LA is hot. I’ll take the Lions (-3) 28-24
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Why the NFL chose this matchup to be the Monday Night showcase, I’ll never know. Philly is the much more talented team, they’ll do enough to win. Eagles (-3) 24-17
SUPER BOWL PICK
San Francisco over Buffalo
I didn’t want to pick total chalk, though I do think Baltimore is the best team in the league, they have a tougher path. I think Buffalo & Cleveland are real threats to the Ravens. The 49ers, on the other hand, have no threats in the NFC. Book San Fran in the Super Bowl.
The NFL regular season is over and since my Chicago Bears aren’t in the playoffs, it’s the first day of mock draft season for me!
The top 18 picks are locked, 19-32 the order is subject to change. I will not be doing any hypothetical trades until after the Super Bowl, so all these picks are who I think these teams will take at that spot.
Here we go:
1. CHICAGO BEARS (via Carolina)- Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina: Ultimately, I think Chicago trades this pick, but if they stay it has to be a QB. I think Maye will be more to their liking than Caleb Williams.
2. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS- Caleb Williams, QB, USC: New owner, new coach & new face of the franchise in DC.
3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State: Patriots need a QB, desperately, but they’re going to have to move up to get one worth a top 5 pick. Here they just take the best player in the draft, and another position of need.
4. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama: Cardinals could go many directions here, but fixing the defense has to be a top priority.
5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: Chargers & Bowers seem like a perfect fit. Best TE prospect since Kyle Pitts.
6. NEW YORK GIANTS- Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame: Giants may be in the QB market, they may go WR here too, but I think Alt is too good to pass up.
7. TENNESSEE TITANS- Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State: WR is a possibility & Bowers would be a perfect fit, but Fashanu is a dominant left tackle.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: Full disclaimer here: This mock involves no speculative trades, except one. The Bears having the first pick requires a trade, either the pick or QB Justin Fields. In this exercise, Fields lands in Atlanta. So, instead of taking a QB, Atlanta goes defense.
9. CHICAGO BEARS- Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: Bears have a number one WR, but they need more for whoever is under center.
10. NEW YORK JETS- JC Latham, OT, Alabama: Aaron Rodgers will return so the Jets desperately need to improve his protection.
11. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama: I believe Kirk Cousins will return to Minnesota, making defense the top priority.
12. DENVER BRONCOS- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: I think Denver moves on from Russell Wilson, they’ll start over with the Heisman Trophy winner.
13. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa: Raiders need a QB, but I don’t see them doing it here.
14. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois: Saints take the top interior defensive lineman in the draft.
15. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State: WR is a possibility, but I think the Colts will go defense.
16. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA: Injury red flags will push him further down the board than his talent warrants.
17. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson: WR or OT are possible if Jags go offense, but I think they’ll go defense.
18. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Rome Odunze, WR, Washington: Bengals get a steal and a replacement for Tee Higgins.
19. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State: Packers get a long term replacement at left tackle.
20. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State: Bucs get younger on their pass rush.
21. ARIZONA CARDINALS (from Houston)- Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State: Cardinals get their WR with their second first rounder.
22. LOS ANGELES RAMS- Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio State: Rams replace Jalen Ramsey.
23. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Leonard Taylor, DL, Miami-FL: Going interior defensive line feels like a Steelers kind of pick.
24. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: I feel like Miami has to go offensive line here, can never go wrong with a Georgia Bulldog.
25. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami-FL: Eagles take the best safety in the draft,
26. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU: Chiefs need for wide receivers is one of the most obvious in all of football.
27. HOUSTON TEXANS (from Cleveland)- Troy Fautanu, IOL, Washington: Texans take the top interior offensive lineman in the draft.
28. DETROIT LIONS- Kalen King, CB, Penn State: Detroit needs to vastly improve their pass defense.
29. BUFFALO BILLS- Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU: Bills opt to upgrade the offensive line.
30. DALLAS COWBOYS- Jeremiah Trotter Jr, LB, Clemson: Cowboys take the top off ball linebacker in the draft.
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Graham Barton, OT, Duke: Niners get maybe the most versatile offensive lineman in the draft.
32. BALTIMORE RAVENS- T’Vondre Sweat, DL, Texas: Ravens land the best run stuffer in the draft.
I’m doing something a bit different than traditional power rankings, which fluctuate week to week and don’t really accurately reflect the actual power structure of the league.
In my system, I’m not ranking teams 1-32, rather I’m placing them in tiers. Teams can, and probably will move from one tier to another, both up and down, through the season, but this is how I see them right now.
THE FRONT RUNNERS
Hurts hasn’t even played that well yet & they’re 6-1.Offense showed signs of their glorious past against Chargers, even with a struggling O they won 6 in a row.At full strength, the Niners might be the most complete team in the NFL.
IN PURSUIT
Dolphins need to prove they can beat a good team on the road before they reach serious contender status.If it wasn’t for the meltdown versus Pittsburgh, Baltimore would be in the higher tier.Seattle will make the playoffs, but they’re clearly a level or 2 behind Philly & San Fran.Jaguars have shown flashes of being serious threats, then they’ve also shown flashes of being pretenders.
DARK HORSES
Pittsburgh wins ugly, they haven’t been flashy, but they’re 4-2.At least one of Tampa, New Orleans or Atlanta are making the playoffs. All three have shown flashes of taking the next step, only to take a step backward. Will one of these teams become a real contender?
KEEP AN EYE ON
As Burrow gets healthier, Bengals should start to rise.If Cleveland gets the QB play they’re paying for, they have the defense to make some noise.The Jets D is elite and Aaron Rodgers might defy logic and make it back by the playoffs. Can Zach Wilson keep them in the hunt?
FRAUDS
Is it time to put Josh Allen in the Kirk Cousins category? Is McDermott’s seat getting just a little warm?Detroit will win their division, but they can chill with the Super Bowl talk. They’ll be lucky to not be a one and done in the playoffs.The Cowboys are what they always are. Good, but not great. Brandon Staley should be coaching for his job the rest of the season.The McVay aura has worn off. Stafford is what he’s always been, slightly above average.
VERY, VERY DARK HORSES
Both these teams are lacking in talent, but both have first year coaches that have their teams playing tough. A break or two goes their way, they could shock some people.
PLAYING FOR DRAFT POSITION
The rest of this season is about determining if Mac Jones is the guy.Full rebuild should be coming. Will they move King Henry?Josh McDaniel is proving that he’s totally a product of Belichick & Brady.Russ hasn’t been the issue this season, but he’s clearly on the decline. Will the Giants move on from Daniel Jones a year after overpaying to extend him? Will they pay Saquon?Does Ron Rivera make it to Thanksgiving?Jordan Love has gotten worse with each game, will he turn it around?Will the Vikings hold a fire sale?Is Fields they guy or will Chicago be Caleb Williams’ new home?Carolina could really use DJ Moore and their first round pick in ‘24, both now belong to Chicago.Cardinals are the least talented team, but they play tough. What will Kyler’s return mean?
*SPECIAL EXTRA*
Coaches Most likely to be fired before season’s end:
The dust has settled on the 2023 NFL Draft. It’s been a week, and I’ve finally had the time to analyze each team’s draft haul. I’ll go division by division, ranking the teams’ draft classes and grading them. At the end I’ll offer my ten favorite draft classes and my ten least favorite.
AFC EAST
Miami only had four picks but they made the most of them. Every one of these guys could have an eventual impact.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M- Pure speed to add to an already super fast offensive skill position group.
MY GRADE: B
I like what Buffalo did here. Kincaid is the best pass catching tight end in the class. I had a first round grade on Torrence, going to the Bills, in fact. Would have liked to seen a running back and secondary help before the seventh round.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane- I’m a big fan of fast, athletic linebackers. Williams was one of my favorite players in the draft.
MY GRADE: B
The Jets gave one of their second round picks and did a first round pick swap with Green Bay to acquire Aaron Rodgers. That factors into their grade. Because of the pick swap they missed out on the top offensive tackles, then I felt they reached on McDonald. Found some good day three value.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Joe Tippman, OC, Wisconsin- Tippman should be a steady fixture in the middle of the Jets’ offensive line for years to come.
MY GRADE: B-
New England had their typical reaches and gambles on questionable character, tempered by stellar selections in the first two rounds. Picked a kicker AND a punter, only the lack of a long snapper kept them from the unholy trifecta.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon- Call it luck, calling it patiently playing the board to perfection. Gonzalez should have been a top ten pick.
MY GRADE: C-
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh put on a master class of drafting. Moving up ahead of the Jets for the last first round worthy offensive tackle was a smart and relatively cheap move. Joey Porter Jr was a no brainer to kick off the second round, I had him as a possible Steelers’ pick in the first. Really good draft throughout.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia- I honestly believe Washington could become the best tight end in this class.
MY GRADE: A+
Baltimore has been a consistently good drafting team for years, ‘23 was no exception. Flowers is the perfect weapon for Lamar Jackson. Simpson is a thumper that will pair well with Roquan Smith. Kelly was a steal in the fifth.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Andrew Vorhees, OG, USC- Vorhees deserved to go higher than the seventh round, despite tearing his ACL at the Combine. He’s a beast that will anchor the offensive line from ‘24 on.
MY GRADE: A
For not having any picks until the third round, Cleveland landed a stellar class. All their picks should contribute immediately, except Thompson-Robinson, who is a nice developmental QB behind Deshaun Watson.
FAVORITE PICK: Luke Wypler, OC, Ohio State- Landing a potential starting center in the sixth round is the definition of steal.
GRADE: A-
Cincinnati ranks last in their division for this draft class only because the other three teams did so well. They bolstered their secondary and pass rush and found a successor to Joe Mixon. I question using two picks on wide receivers when that is arguably their strongest position group.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Chase Brown, RB, Illinois- Do not be surprised if Brown supplants Mixon as the lead back before season’s end.
MY GRADE: B+
AFC SOUTH
Absolutely stellar draft class for Indianapolis. Starting with making the right decision at QB, straight through the seventh round. It’s hard to find a weakness in this class.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida- I was convinced that Indy was being too conservative in their pursuit of a franchise QB, and also that they’d choose the wrong one. They didn’t. Richardson is a perfect QB for Shane Steichen’s offense.
MY GRADE: A+
Tennessee made the right choice in the first round, then made the move to land their QB in the second. Found some good value after that.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland- I had a second round grade on him. He could develop into a plus starter to pair with Skoronski.
MY GRADE: A-
Houston played an exorbitant price to land Will Anderson, but they had plenty of draft capital to burn. They now have the new faces of their franchise on both sides of the ball.
MY FAVORITE PICK: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State- Despite the pre-draft smoke, the Texans stayed at #2 and took the right QB. I had Stroud as the top QB in the class.
MY GRADE: B+
Even with a plethora of picks, Jacksonville landed a rather unimpressive class. Harrison felt like a reactionary pick after the Cam Robinson suspension. Their entire draft felt like a bunch of reaches.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M- I had a second round grade on him and had him ranked as the number three safety.
MY GRADE: C-
AFC WEST
Las Vegas had a solid draft, landing good value throughout. O’Connell could be a perfect backup for Jimmy G.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland- I think Bennett can become an above average starting cornerback.
MY GRADE: B
Denver didn’t have a pick until the third round because of the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton acquisitions. They then traded into the back of the second for a wide receiver, their deepest position group. Found decent value with their limited picks.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Riley Moss, CB, Iowa- Moss has a chance to become a stellar cornerback in Denver.
MY GRADE: C+
As the defending champions, Kansas City didn’t have any pressing needs. They could afford to reach and gamble. They were more conservative, though. Not a bad draft class, just a little underwhelming.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma- Morris could develop into a long term starter on the offensive line.
GRADE: C+
Did the Chargers only scout TCU games? Not a terrible draft class, but didn’t help them close the gap with the Chiefs.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State- Another fast, athletic linebacker and one of my favorite players.
MY GRADE: C
NFC EAST
The praise of Howie Roseman and Philadelphia is warranted, in my opinion. This was a great draft class. This is one of the few teams that could take a gamble on Carter, and a perfect landing spot for him. Every pick, save for McKee, will play a role in ‘23.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia- Philly got themselves a clone of Haason Reddick at the end of the first. Smith was a top fifteen talent.
MY GRADE: A+
Giants had a good draft. Days one and two were stellar, Gray was great value at the end of the fifth. They took a couple flyers in the seventh.
MY FAVORITE PICK: John Michael Schmitz, OC, Minnesota- Plug and play center that will anchor the Giants’ offensive line for a decade.
MY GRADE: A-
Dallas reached throughout this draft. They got good players, but left better ones on the board.
MY FAVORITE PICK: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas- Have I mentioned that I love fast, athletic linebackers? One of my favorite players in the draft.
MY GRADE: B-
Washington’s ownership is in flux and this draft reflects that. They reached a bunch and didn’t seem to have a coherent plan.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Ricky Stromberg, OC, Arkansas- It was a slight reach, but Stromberg is a decent center and should anchor their offensive line.
MY GRADE: C-
NFC NORTH
The Bears rebuilding is in full swing and it appears smart and evident. Fixed their biggest weakness on offense, strengthened their biggest weakness on defense. Grabbed some real gems on day three.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee- With apologies to Roschon Johnson, protecting Justin Fields was the most important thing that needed to happen. Wright does that.
MY GRADE: A
Detroit made two big reaches in the first round, though both are great players. Day two was solid. Day three was a couple of dart throws.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Brian Branch, S, Alabama- Best safety in the class, should have been a first rounder.
MY GRADE: B
Green Bay landed several very good players, but not addressing the secondary until the seventh round and ignoring the offensive line entirely is questionable.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State- Reed was one of my favorite day two receivers.
MY GRADE: B-
Minnesota’s Achilles heel last year was defense, they addressed that with reaches. The offense, however, should be top level.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Jordan Addison, WR, USC- He’ll pair with Justin Jefferson to form a deadly receiver combo.
MY GRADE: C
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans had an overall solid draft. Nothing flashy, but solid value throughout.
MY FAVORITE PICJ: AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest- I had a third/fourth round grade on Perry.
MY GRADE: B+
Tampa Bay did a nice job in jump starting their post- Brady reboot.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State- He might have to kick inside to guard, but Mauch is a mauler on the offensive line.
MY GRADE: B+
Carolina paid a hefty price, but they landed their franchise QB. Not a bad class with limited picks.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama- Size concerns aside, Young was the top QB in this class.
MY GRADE: B-
Atlanta drafted like a team on the precipice of a title, not one that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2017. Bijan Robinson is a great player and the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, but running back in the first is a luxury pick, a luxury I’m not sure the Falcons can afford.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah- I had a late first/ early second round grade on him.
MY GRADE: C-
NFCWEST
Even without the windfall they gathered from Houston to move back, this was a good haul. Arizona deftly played the board in the first and got the guy they wanted. Strong picks throughout.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn- I had a late third/early fourth round grade on him.
MY GRADE: A
Seattle had another solid draft after last year’s stellar class. Double dipping at running back with Kenneth Walker III entering his second year was a head scratcher.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn- One of my favorite day two edge rushers.
MY GRADE: B+
The Rams had a boatload of picks, 10 on day three. They were basically throwing darts at the board, some hit, others did not.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB, TCU- Smaller corner, but one of my favorites. Tenacious competitor.
MY GRADE: C
San Francisco didn’t have a pick until the end of the third round and used their second pick on a kicker. They couldn’t make up for that even with a day three home run. They didn’t hit one.
MY FAVORITE PICK: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State- One of the best safeties in the class. Unfortunately, this was the Niners’ last great pick.
Nickels and Dimes 