Previous: #1, won at Arizona, 45-17

The week 16 rematch with Seattle looms large for division & conference supremacy.

Upcoming: vs #13 Detroit

Previous: #2, won at #23 Atlanta, 37-9

As stated above, the rematch with LA will determine a lot.

Upcoming: vs #21 Indianapolis

Previous: #3, BYE

Patriots could clinch division with win versus Buffalo.

Upcoming: vs #7 Buffalo

Previous: #4, won at #31 Las Vegas, 24-17

Denver has a stranglehold on the division & should be either the 1 or 2 seed.

Upcoming: vs #5 Green Bay

Previous: #7, won vs #5 Chicago, 28-21

Green Bay outlasted Chicago & took over first place in the North & the #2 seed, for now.

Upcoming: at #4 Denver

Previous: #9, won at #19 Kansas City, 20-10

Signature win for CJ Stroud, Demeco Ryans & this Texans team vs KC. Houston is the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

Upcoming: vs #26 Arizona

Previous: #10, won vs #20 Cincinnati, 39-34

Bills narrowly avoided a home loss to Cincy. Big game in New England if they have any hope of earning a home playoff game.

Upcoming: vs #3 New England

Previous: #8, BYE

Niners come off their bye one game back in the NFC West & a strong grip on a wildcard spot.

Upcoming: vs #30 Tennessee

Previous: #5, lost at #7 Green Bay, 28-21

Bears fell behind Green Bay in the NFC North & down to the 7th seed, but they have a chance to flip that again over the next two weeks.

Upcoming: vs #31 Cleveland

Previous: #6, lost at #18 LA Chargers, 22-19

I’m officially worried about Philly after their third straight loss. They could have sealed the division with a win, now they still haven’t clinched a playoff berth, yet.

Upcoming: vs #32 Las Vegas

Previous: #14, won vs #15 Indianapolis, 36-19

Jaguars have seized control of the AFC South, but Houston is hot on their heels.

Upcoming: vs #28 NY Jets

Previous: #18, won vs #6 Philadelphia, 22-19

Huge win for the Chargers, solidifying their position in the playoff race.

Upcoming: at #20 Kansas City

Previous: #12, won vs #17 Dallas, 44-30

Lions got a much needed win & now control their own destiny because of the their week 18 matchup with Chicago.

Upcoming: at #1 LA Rams

Previous: #16, BYE

Carolina returns from their bye with a clear path to the postseason, those 2 games with Tampa will determine their fate.

Upcoming: at #25 New Orleans

Previous: #13, lost vs #30 New Orleans, 24-20

Tampa is struggling but with two games left versus Carolina, they still control their own destiny.

Upcoming: vs #24 Atlanta

Previous: #21, won at #11 Baltimore, 27-22

Steelers gained the upper hand in the AFC North, but their position is far from solid.

Upcoming: vs #18 Miami

Previous: #17, lost at #12 Detroit, 44-30

Despite the loss, Dallas stays alive because of Philly’s struggles.

Upcoming: vs #23 Minnesota

Previous: #22, won at #26 NY Jets, 34-10

Dolphins have surged back into the playoff race, but they have no margin for error.

Upcoming: at #16 Pittsburgh

Previous: #11, lost vs #21 Pittsburgh, 27-22

Ravens still have a shot, but they look like a team that’s lost its way.

Upcoming: at #22 Cincinnati

Previous: #19, lost vs #9 Houston, 20-10

KC is still alive, but they’re hanging by a thread.

Upcoming: vs #12 LA Chargers

Previous: #15, lost at #14 Jacksonville, 36-19

Colts were already in free fall, now they’ve lost Daniel Jones for the season.

Upcoming: at #2 Seattle

Previous: #20, lost at #10 Buffalo, 39-34

Cincy let one slip away in Buffalo, but they could still run the table & win the AFC North.

Upcoming: vs #19 Baltimore

Previous: #28, won vs #24 Washington, 31-0

Minnesota is still mathematically alive, but it probably won’t be for long.

Upcoming: at #17 Dallas

Previous: #23, lost vs #2 Seattle, 37-9

Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #15 Tampa Bay

Previous: #30, won at #13 Tampa Bay, 24-20

New Orleans is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: vs #14 Carolina

Previous: #25, lost vs #1 LA Rams, 45-17

Arizona is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #6 Houston

Previous: #24, lost at #28 Minnesota, 31-0

Washington is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #29 NY Giants

Previous: #26, lost vs #22 Miami, 34-10

Jets are eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #11 Jacksonville

Previous: #29, BYE

Giants are eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: vs #27 Washington

Previous: #32, won at #27 Cleveland, 31-29

Tennessee is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #8 San Francisco

Previous: #27, lost vs #32 Tennessee, 31-29

Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #9 Chicago

Previous: #31, lost vs #4 Denver, 24-17

Las Vegas is eliminated from playoff contention.

Upcoming: at #10 Philadelphia

AFC

Locks

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– BYE

Week 15– vs Buffalo Bills

Week 16– at Baltimore Ravens

Week 17– at New York Jets

Week 18– vs Miami Dolphins

Patriots are in the drivers seat for the AFC East title, even with a loss to Buffalo they’d be a game up. Tight battle with Denver for #1 seed, might need to go 4-0 to get it.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Las Vegas Raiders

Week 15– vs Green Bay Packers

Week 16– vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 17– at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 18– vs Los Angeles Chargers

Assuming Broncos take care of business versus Vegas, they’ll be tied with New England in the race for #1 seed. The road for Denver, however, is much tougher. Their last four games could all have major playoff implications. They could officially eliminate the Chiefs in week 17.

Controlling Their Destiny, for now

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Indianapolis Colts

Week 15– vs New York Jets

Week 16– at Denver Broncos

Week 17– at Indianapolis Colts

Week 18– vs Tennessee Titans

Jaguars have two huge matchups with Indianapolis down the stretch. If they can split with Indy & take care of business against the Jets & Titans, they should get a playoff spot, possibly win the division.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 15– at Seattle Seahawks

Week 16– vs San Francisco 49ers

Week 17– vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 18– at Houston Texans

Colts are currently tied for first with Jacksonville & they play the Jaguars twice down the stretch. It feels like Indy needs to win both of those to have any shot at the playoffs because their schedule is very tough. After dominating the first two months of the season, the Colts could very well miss the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Cincinnati Bengals

Week 15– at New England Patriots

Week 16– at Cleveland Browns

Week 17– vs Philadelphia Eagles

Week 18– vs New York Jets

Barring a complete collapse, the Bills should make the playoffs. The division, however, may be out of reach. Even if they win in New England, they’ll need help to overtake the Patriots.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Philadelphia Eagles

Week 15– at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 16– at Dallas Cowboys

Week 17– vs Houston Texans

Week 18– at Denver

The Chargers currently occupy a playoff spot and they trail Denver by 2 in the AFC West, but they have a very difficult schedule & they’ve had a rash of injuries. They control their own destiny for the postseason, but it might be fleeting.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 15– at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16– vs New England Patriots

Week 17– at Green Bay Packers

Week 18– at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore controls their own destiny because they have two games versus Pittsburgh and one against Cincinnati. Win those three and they should take the AFC North. Lose one or more and they likely miss the playoffs because their other games are tough.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Baltimore Ravens

Week 15– vs Miami Dolphins

Week 16– at Detroit Lions

Week 17– at Cleveland Browns

Week 18– vs Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh needs at least a split with Baltimore and probably a win versus Cleveland to have a shot. They have a slightly easier schedule than Baltimore, but they’ve been faltering.

Lurking

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 15– vs Arizona Cardinals

Week 16– vs Las Vegas Raiders

Week 17– at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 18– vs Indianapolis Colts

The battle with Kansas City is huge. With a win they could solidify their position and all but eliminate the Chiefs. Houston has a favorable schedule down the stretch and a real shot to make up the one game deficit and win the AFC South.

Needing Help

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Houston Texans

Week 15– vs Los Angeles Chargers

Week 16– at Tennessee Titans

Week 17– vs Denver Broncos

Week 18– at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs run of AFC West titles is pretty much over and they have little margin for error in the race for a wildcard, but as long as they have a pulse you cannot count them out.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at New York Jets

Week 15– at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 16– vs Cincinnati Bengals

Week 17– vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 18– at New England Patriots

The Dolphins need to run the table to have any chance. A tall task, but possible, especially since New England might have nothing to play for in the final week.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Buffalo Bills

Week 15– vs Baltimore Ravens

Week 16– at Miami Dolphins

Week 17– vs Arizona Cardinals

Week 18– vs Cleveland Browns

Cincy dug a deep hole for themselves during Joe Burrow’s absence, but somehow they’re still alive. Buffalo isn’t necessarily a must win, if they can win their last 4 they could have a shot.

My Picks

1. DENVER BRONCOS (AFC West Champion)
2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (AFC East Champion)
3. HOUSTON TEXANS (AFC South Champion)
4. CINCINNATI BENGALS (AFC North Champion)
5. BUFFALO BILLS
6. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
7. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

NFC

Locks

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Arizona Cardinals

Week 15– vs Detroit Lions

Week 16– at Seattle Seahawks

Week 17– at Atlanta Falcons

Week 18– vs Arizona Cardinals

The week 16 battle with Seattle looms large, it could decide the division & possibly the #1 seed.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Atlanta Falcons

Week 15– vs Indianapolis Colts

Week 16– vs Los Angeles Rams

Week 17– at Carolina Panthers

Week 18– at San Francisco 49ers

Again, that week 16 matchup with the Rams is huge. Seattle will make the playoffs, but if they lose to LA & San Francisco they could end up with the 7 seed.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 15– vs Las Vegas Raiders

Week 16– at Washington Commanders

Week 17– at Buffalo Bills

Week 18– vs Washington Commanders

It would take an epic collapse for Philly not to win the division or make the playoffs. Number one seed is still in play, but I think LA or Seattle will pull away with that.

Controlling their Destiny, sort of

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Green Bay Packers

Week 15– vs Cleveland Browns

Week 16– vs Green Bay Packers

Week 17– at San Francisco 49ers

Week 18– vs Detroit Lions

Those two Packers games probably decide the division. If Chicago defends their home field, they’ll win the NFC North. Probably need a minimum 4-1 to get the #1 seed.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Chicago Bears

Week 15– at Denver Broncos

Week 16– at Chicago Bears

Week 17– vs Baltimore Ravens

Week 18– at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay probably needs to sweep Chicago to win the division. Not an easy road, but the Packers should make the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs New Orleans Saints

Week 15– vs Atlanta Falcons

Week 16– at Carolina Panthers

Week 17– at Miami Dolphins

Week 18– vs Carolina Panthers

Those two games with Carolina will decide the division. Bucs have an outside shot of a wildcard, but it seems like winning the division is their best bet.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– BYE

Week 15– vs Tennessee

Week 16– at Indianapolis Colts

Week 17– vs Chicago Bears

Week 18– vs Seattle Seahawks

Niners are a near lock for the playoffs and they’re right there in the NFC West race, but they need help. The final two versus Chicago & Seattle could determine seeding.

Right There

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– BYE

Week 15– at New Orleans Saints

Week 16– vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 17– vs Seattle Seahawks

Week 18– at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Panthers best bet is to win the NFC South, and the two games against Tampa should decide the division.

Need Help

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– vs Dallas Cowboys

Week 15– at Los Angeles Rams

Week 16– vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 17– at Minnesota Vikings

Week 18– at Chicago Bears

Lions have little margin for error. It feels like the Dallas game is a must win for both. Their division hopes are probably lost.

Remaining Schedule

Week 14– at Detroit Lions

Week 15– vs Minnesota Vikings

Week 16– vs Los Angeles Chargers

Week 17– at Washington Commanders

Week 18– at New York Giants

Dallas has no margin for error. Any loss probably eliminates them from division contention & playoff contention.

My Picks

1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (NFC West Champion)
2. CHICAGO BEARS (NFC NORTH Champion)
3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (NFC East Champion)
4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (NFC South Champion)
5. LOS ANGELES RAMS
6. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
7. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Last Week: 11-5 / 10-6

Season: 128-66 / 100-94

Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Detroit Lions

Huge game. One of these teams will stay alive, the other will be on the ropes. I’ll take Detroit in a tight one.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Battle for first place in the AFC North. Baltimore hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, but Pittsburgh has been worse.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow is back & Cincy is looking to make a push, but winning in Buffalo is tough.

Seattle Seahawks (-8) @ Atlanta Falcons

Seattle seems destined for a deep playoff run. Atlanta seems destined for a complete overhaul.

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett could break the single season sack record in this game. Other than that, there’s no reason to watch this one.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)

Winner gets sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Jacksonville has the momentum.

Washington Commanders (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Two teams that aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, but they’re eliminated. Jayden Daniels might be back, so I’ll take Washington.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ New York Jets

Miami looking to stay alive, the Jets looking to play spoiler. Miami has been kind of hot lately.

New Orleans Saints (+8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa has an excellent chance to pull a full game ahead in the NFC South.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)

Broncos will win, but they don’t cover against anyone.

Chicago Bears (+5.5) @ Green Bay Packers

Battle for first in the NFC North. I’ll give the nod to the home team, reluctantly.

Los Angeles Rams (-8) @ Arizona Cardinals

Rams bounce back by blasting a Cardinals team just playing for pride.

Houston Texans (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Houston has been hot and I want to pick them, I just can’t pick against Mahomes in December, yet.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Philly bounces back against a banged up QB playing behind a banged up offensive line.

BYES

Week 13 Recap

Trash Pandas vs Achilles Heels

This was a bad loss for the Pandas. I could’ve all but clinched a playoff spot with a win, nearly sewed up the division & stayed undefeated in it. Instead, I’ve fallen a game back in the division race & dropped down to the seventh seed.

The week started bad when Jahmyr Gibbs managed only 7 points against Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day.

It got worse on Black Friday when Rome Odunze threw up a goose egg & the Philadelphia Eagles defense managed only 1 point, but my Bears got a HUGE win, so I’m not complaining.

My opponent had some good performances during the early slate on Sunday, but I was able to chip away during the afternoon games. Brock Bowers was pretty much the dominant force he usually is, scoring 18 points & winning the TE battle by 16.

Ernest Jones IV had one of the the better IDP games on the season and gave me some hope going into Sunday night.

Unfortunately, Bo Nix put up 30 to beat Justin Herbert by 12 points in the QB matchup.

I still had a slight chance on Monday night with TreVeyon Henderson & Andy Borregales going. It was frustrating to watch New England essentially split touches between Henderson & Rhamondre Stevenson, even though Henderson is clearly the superior back.

I’m disappointed, but on the bright side, I didn’t make any managerial mistakes that cost me this game, I just got beat.

Jones IV gets my MVP, now on to the next one.

Week 14 Preview

Trash Pandas vs Xandar Guardians

Previous Matchup

This is a big matchup for both of us. The winner essentially clinches a playoff spot, while the loser enters the final week desperate.

I won our first matchup by getting solid, if unspectacular, performances from every player on my roster. I did cost myself nearly 40 points by not playing the right kicker, but it didn’t hurt me.

Right now, I’ve got about a 50/50 chance to win this. I lost Henderson to a bye, my opponent lost Amon-Ra St. Brown to injury. I need to pick up a kicker.

My keys to the week:

1. Trevor Lawrence: Managerial decision to go with Lawrence over Herbert. Lawrence’s matchup is only slightly better, but Herbert is dealing with a broken left hand & is playing behind a banged up offensive line against what I presume will be a pissed off Philly defense. I think Lawrence gives me the better chance at winning.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs: I need a bounce back week from Gibbs, badly. TreVeyon Henderson is on bye. Brock Bowers has a terrible matchup & my receivers don’t have good ones. Gibbs’ matchup isn’t as great as it would have been earlier in the season, but Dallas’ defense can still give up some chunk plays. Hopefully those go to Gibbs.
3. Philadelphia Eagles: The Philly defense was bullied by Chicago, so hopefully they come into this one pissed off. The Chargers offensive line is banged up and so is Herbert. I want a bunch of sacks and a turnover or 2.
4. Bhayshul Tuten: Henderson is on bye, so Tuten gets the start. I haven’t settled on which WRs I’ll play, only Jordan Addison has a decent matchup, but he’s got JJ McCarthy throwing, so I’m not sure I can count on getting much there. Tuten has been getting more touches recently and scored a TD last week. I’d love double digits from him.

As a Bears fan, I’m usually deep into mock draft season at this time, but this year I’m just now taking my first look. In between trash talking Packer fans, I decided to do my first mock draft for 2026.

Obviously, the draft order isn’t close to being set. I wasn’t going to mock trades, but with the current top two picks being the Titans & Giants, who both drafted first round quarterbacks last year, I knew I had to trade them out of those spots.

So, here we go:

Week 13 Recap

BJ & Da’Bears vs Legion of Squirrels

Another week, another loss. I’ve now clinched the worst record in the league and I lost any chance I had at playing spoiler. I’ve got a meaningless Week 14 game before the Toilet Bowl, let’s make this quick.

Kyle Monangai gets MVP for a stellar 18 point performance.

Trey McBride had another great week, sorry you got wasted on a terrible team, in real life & fantasy.

Tetairoa McMillan only had one catch, but it was a 43 yard touchdown.

Bhayshul Tuten also had a TD and a respectable 8 points.

Brian Thomas Jr has cemented himself as my worst number one pick, EVER!

Week 14 Preview

BJ & Da’ Bears vs Achane in the Membrane

Previous Matchup

Our previous matchup gave me my first victory on the season. This matchup is totally meaningless, both of us are eliminated from playoff contention.

My keys to the week:

NONE.

Who cares? This game means nothing, take a week off and go to the Toilet Bowl.

Serious Contenders

Previous: #1, lost at #18 Carolina, 31-28

I’m keeping the Rams at #1, despite the loss in Carolina. Long road trip, inclement weather & uncharacteristic Stafford turnovers. LA lost the top seed in the NFC, for now, but I think they’re still the team to beat.

Upcoming: at #25 Arizona

Previous: #2, won vs #25 Minnesota, 26-0

The Seahawks are right there with LA, but I can’t put them ahead of the Rams, yet, because I don’t trust playoff Darnold. Seattle might have the best defense in the NFC.

Upcoming: at #23 Atlanta

Previous: #6, won vs #29 NY Giants, 33-15

Patriots roll into their bye on a ten game winning streak. I don’t fully trust this young team, yet, but I’m not sure I trust any team in the AFC.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #7, won at #28 Washington, 27-26

The Broncos haven’t earned many style points in their ten game winning streak, but they keep finding ways. The defense is elite and could be enough to carry them all the way to the Super Bowl.

Upcoming: at #31 Las Vegas

Previous: #10, won at #3 Philadelphia, 24-15

What a week for the Bears. They utterly dominated the defending champs on Black Friday, then they slide into the #1 seed in the NFC on Sunday. Huge battle with their bitter rivals this week.

Upcoming: at #7 Green Bay

Previous: #3, lost vs #10 Chicago, 24-15

The Eagles are out of sorts on offense and their defense got bullied by the Chicago offensive line, but they are the defending champs. Philly has the horses to turn this around and make another run at the Super Bowl.

Upcoming: at #18 LA Chargers

Previous: #11, won at #5 Detroit, 31-24

Packers swept Detroit, but suddenly they have a challenger for NFC North supremacy they weren’t expecting. Battle for first place with Chicago in Lambeau this week.

Upcoming: vs #5 Chicago

Contenders

Previous: #12, won at #23 Cleveland, 26-8

Somehow, despite the injuries, the Niners are hanging in there in the NFC West, only a half game back. They seem to have a firm grip on at least a wildcard spot.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #13, won at #9 Indianapolis, 20-16

The Texans have surged back into the AFC playoff race behind the best defense in the NFL. I think it’s that defense that will propel them to the AFC South crown.

Upcoming: at #19 Kansas City

Previous: #14, won at #20 Pittsburgh, 26-7

Let me be clear, I think the Bills are frauds. This is not a legit Super Bowl contender, in my opinion, but they’ll probably get in to the playoffs and could pull out a road win in the Wildcard round.

Upcoming: vs #20 Cincinnati

Previous: #4, lost vs #24 Cincinnati, 32-14

The Ravens are another team I do not expect much from in January, they just seem off. That said, they have the clearest path to the postseason from the mediocre AFC North.

Upcoming: vs #21 Pittsburgh

Previous: #5, lost vs #11 Green Bay, 31-24

The Lions should be in desperation mode. The division title is probably out of reach now, and they have little margin for error in the wildcard race, but Detroit does have a team that can make it happen.

Upcoming: vs 17 Dallas

Previous: #16, won vs #26 Arizona, 20-17

The Buccaneers got a much needed victory and kept their tenuous hold on the NFC South, for another week. Tampa owns this division until someone takes it from them, but Carolina is knocking.

Upcoming: vs #30 New Orleans

Previous: #15, won at #32 Tennessee, 25-3

The Jaguars overtook Indy for first place in the AFC South. They’ve been quietly lurking all season. Their grasp may be fleeting, though, as Houston is surging.

Upcoming: vs #15 Indianapolis

Fighting for their Lives

Previous: #9, lost vs #13 Houston, 20-16

The Colts are plummeting back to earth and the landing promises to be rough. It’s not all on Daniel Jones, but I have always had reservations about Indianapolis because of him. Colts need to right the ship or they could be on the outside looking in.

Upcoming: at #15 Jacksonville

Previous: #18, won vs #1 LA Rams, 31-28

Panthers just aren’t going away. The win over LA is the signature win of Bryce Young’s career. If Tampa gives them an opening, Carolina could seize the division.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #19, won vs #8 Kansas City, 31-28

Since the trade deadline, the Cowboys have been surging. The division is probably out of reach at this point, but Dallas is poised to make some noise in the wildcard race.

Upcoming: at #12 Detroit

Previous: #17, won vs #31 Las Vegas, 31-14

I dropped the Chargers one spot, after a win, because I’m just not sure they can weather all these injuries. The latest is the biggest, possibly. Justin Herbert broke bones in his non-throwing hand and his status going forward is unclear.

Upcoming: vs #6 Philadelphia

Previous: #8, lost at #19 Dallas, 31-28

The Chiefs have squandered any margin for error they might have had. The division is lost, and they likely have to run the table to make it as a wildcard. With Mahomes, KC is never out of it, but the door is closing.

Upcoming: vs #9 Houston

Hanging by a Thread

Previous: #24, won at #4 Baltimore, 32-14

Joe Burrow returned and saved the Bengals season, for now. If Cincy was in any other division, they’d be dead in the water, but the AFC North is eminently winnable for the Bengals, but they have very little margin for error.

Upcoming: at #10 Buffalo

Previous: #20, lost vs #14 Buffalo, 26-7

The Steelers are still alive, because the AFC North is terrible, but it feels like Pittsburgh is circling the drain. I’m reasonably confident that this will be Aaron Rodgers’ swan song and could be Mike Tomlin’s as well.

Upcoming: at #11 Baltimore

Previous: #21, won vs #30 New Orleans, 21-17

The Dolphins are saving their coach’s job and lingering on the periphery of the playoff hunt. I still find it unlikely, but each win increases their chances.

Upcoming: at #26 NY Jets

Dead in the Water

Previous: #22, lost at #27 NY Jets, 27-24

Put a fork in ‘em, the Falcons are done. Heads are going to roll in Atlanta after another underachieving season.

Upcoming: vs #2 Seattle

Previous: #28, lost vs #7 Denver, 27-26

The Commanders jump four spots despite another loss, because Jayden Daniels is about to return. Washington has no hope of making the playoffs, but they could play spoiler.

Upcoming: at #28 Minnesota

Previous: #26, lost at #16 Tampa Bay, 20-17

The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention and big changes could be coming in Arizona this offseason.

Upcoming: vs #1 LA Rams

Previous: #27, won vs #22 Atlanta, 27-24

The Jets are showing some signs of growth in Aaron Glenn’s first season. Now, if they could finally complete their endless search for a franchise quarterback.

Upcoming: vs #22 Miami

Previous: #23, lost vs #12 San Francisco, 26-8

It’s a shame the Myles Garrett’s historic season is being wasted on a terrible Browns team. Cleveland will probably be searching for a new coach come January.

Upcoming: vs #32 Tennessee

Previous: #25, lost at #2 Seattle, 26-0

The Vikings made a terrible mistake letting Sam Darnold walk. Can Kevin O’Connell fix JJ McCarthy? If not, Minnesota could occupy the basement in the NFC North for years to come.

Upcoming: vs #24 Washington

Previous: #29, lost at #6 New England, 33-15

Giants season is lost and they need to protect Jaxson Dart from himself the rest of the season.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #30, lost at #21 Miami, 21-17

The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention, but Tyler Shough is giving New Orleans something to think about. He may have earned another season as starting quarterback, letting the Saints address other areas in the draft.

Upcoming: at #13 Tampa Bay

Previous: #31, lost at #17 LA Chargers, 31-14

The Raiders have been eliminated from playoff contention and reports suggest that Vegas is just as dysfunctional as ever. I think this could be Pete Carroll’s final season as an NFL head coach.

Upcoming: vs #4 Denver

Previous: #32, lost vs #15 Jacksonville, 25-3

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. The good news, they can probably ransom the first overall pick for a pretty sizable haul.

Upcoming: at #27 Cleveland

If the Packers send the Bears back to Chicago, defeated, they’ll take over first place in the NFC North. You’ll get to dunk on Bears fans, give them their comeuppance for not knowing their place.

You’ll get to remind us this is your division. That Green Bay owns us, whether it’s Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love under center. You’ll get to mock us, mercilessly, for two whole weeks. Then, you’ll have to do it again, but in Chicago this time.

See, that’s the thing, Green Bay, you need to beat the Bears twice to control your own destiny in the division, we only have to win once.

So, yeah, if you win on Sunday, it’ll hurt us. They always hurt. But, the thing is, we’re Bears fans. We’ve got layers upon layers of scar tissue. There is nothing you can say to us that we haven’t already heard a dozen times over the last 30 years.

Well take our licks and two weeks later we’ll get a shot at redemption, in Soldier Field. I wonder, Green Bay, if you’ve considered, for a moment, the alternative?

If the Bears march into Lambeau and do to your Packers what they just did to Philly, how will you cope?

How will you cope knowing there is a new king in the North, because, make no mistake, if the Bears win in Lambeau this Sunday, they are winning the North. It won’t matter what you do. It won’t matter if you come to Chicago and win, we’ll still be ahead of you, unless you get some help. Have you considered that?

Even if the Packers win and seize control of the NFC North, it will not crush us. We’ve been down that road many, many times. We know the way back.

We will survive. But, will you?

You can put on the brave face. Pretend you’re not worried. That’s cool, confidence is admirable. But, deep down, somewhere in that part of your soul you don’t speak of in polite company, the thought has crossed your mind. What if these aren’t the same old Bears?

What if that big swing for the fences you took with Micah Parsons was all for naught, because Chicago had already trumped it last January when they hired Ben Johnson.

Face it, Green Bay, if you win you can dunk on us all you want, but nothing you say will affect us, we’ve been there, done that. But if the Bears win, your world, as you know it, crumbles to ash.

No pressure, Green Bay, none whatsoever.

Just remember,

I was planning on writing this after next week’s game against Green Bay, but I find myself with some free time on a Sunday and I’m still buzzing about the huge win against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bears haven’t lost since the Sunday before Halloween. They just went 5-0 in November, the last two victories over division leaders, Pittsburgh and the aforementioned Eagles.

They enter December in first place in the NFC North. The last time they led the division this late in the season was 2018, and I can draw a significant parallel between that season and this one.

In 2018, I was enjoying the Bears winning after several down years, but deep down I wasn’t sure how good they actually were. They had gotten to 8-3 by the end of November, they had some impressive wins but the only one over a decent opponent was at home against the Vikings.

They opened December by losing to a below average Giants team and sat at 8-4 entering a Sunday night matchup with the 11-1 Los Angeles Rams. The Bears did not play well, offensively, in that game but the defense was utterly dominant. So dominant, in fact, that the New England Patriots studied the tape of that game prior to holding the Rams to 3 points in the Super Bowl.

The Bears win over the Rams was the game where I finally knew, this team was good. Of course, we all know how that season ended. The double doink robbed us Bears fans of seeing what that team could have accomplished.

This season, while not following the same trajectory as 2018, had a similar feeling. I was happy with the wins, but deep down I was wondering how good are the Bears, really?

They had barely escaped with wins against the lowly Raiders, Giants & Bengals without Joe Burrow. Sure, they had shutdown a high powered Cowboys offense and beat the Commanders with a fully healthy Jayden Daniels, but they also lost to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings & Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. Their only victory over a team with a winning record was over the Steelers, who were playing without Aaron Rodgers.

Then, Black Friday came. I didn’t hold out much hope. The Eagles are a juggernaut. Their offense is inconsistent, but their defense is elite. I was looking at this game as a measuring stick. I just wanted the Bears to look respectable, play a true Super Bowl contender close in their own building.

The Bears exceeded my loftiest hopes. They not only went into Philly and won, they dominated. The final score, 24-15, doesn’t tell the story of how utterly Chicago dominated this game.

The Bears offensive line bullied one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Bears rushed for 280+ yards & both D’Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai had over 100 yards rushing.

The Bears defense forced two turnovers against an offense that had the fewest turnovers in the league coming in. They shut down Saquon Barkley and really the entire Philly offense, except AJ Brown.

I’m sitting here, smiling as I write this, because I now know the Chicago Bears are a good football team. Not only do I know that we’ll be playing meaningful games in December, but we’ll be in the playoffs come January.

The Bears are now 9-3. Ten wins might get them in the playoffs, 11 surely will. A 2-3 stretch drive isn’t being overly optimistic, in fact I think it’s too pessimistic. Winning all five is probably asking too much, but why not 4-1 or 3-2?

3-2 probably wins the division, especially if at least one of the wins is against Green Bay. 4-1 certainly wins the North. Win the North and they get a home playoff game.

So what are the keys to make this happen?

• Getting Healthy & Staying Healthy: The Bears defense has been decimated by injuries this season. Their top two cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson & Kyler Gordon, have missed significant time this season. Tyrique Stevenson has also been banged up. Johnson & Gordon returned against Philly & Stevenson should be back for Green Bay. The Bears are also down 4 linebackers. Tremaine Edmunds, who was having a career year, is on IR. TJ Edwards has missed multiple games, Noah Sewell missed the last two games & Ruben Hyppolite missed the Eagles game. D’Marco Jackson & Amen Ogbongbemiga have played well in relief, but getting Edwards & Edmunds back would be huge. Hopefully, the Bears can also avoid any more significant injuries, especially to…
• The Offensive Line: In my opinion, this is the main reason the Bears are 9-3. This is the best offensive line Chicago has had since 1985. Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times last season, he’s on pace to suffer less than half that many this year. The Bears are also the number two rushing offense in the NFL. A case could be made for Joe Thuney, Darnell Wright, Jonah Jackson & Drew Dalman to each make the Pro Bowl. Ironically, an injury may have helped the Bears find their permanent left tackle. Theo Benedet was serviceable, but a bit of a liability in pass protection. His injury forced rookie Ozzy Trapilo into the starting lineup and he’s looked good. He’s had some hiccups, but he offers more upside as a blindside protector. If this unit can stay intact, the Bears should have a chance in every game they play.

HOLY SHIT! AS I’M WRITING THIS, THE CAROLINA PANTHERS BEAT THE LOS ANGELES RAMS AND THE BEARS ARE CURRENTLY THE NUMBER ONE SEED IN THE NFC!

Now, back to it…

• Turnovers: This is the other big reason the Bears are in the position they are. The defense hasn’t been good. They’ve given up a ton of yards and have struggled to put teams away, but they’ve taken the ball away… a lot! Kevin Byard leads the NFL with 6 interceptions, Nahshon Wright is right behind him with 5 ( and also has 3 fumble recoveries) & Tremaine Edmunds has four. They’ve managed this while generating little pass rush. If they can keep this up through December, it bodes well for their chances of getting a high seed.
• Caleb Williams: Williams has shown elite sack avoidance this season and the super important clutch gene, but he’s yet to put everything together. Critics like to point out his less than stellar completion percentage, but those box score critics aren’t actually watching the games. Yes, Williams has missed some throws, but he’s also been a victim of some bad luck. He’s had a lot of drops and especially in the Eagles game he had a couple of receivers lose their footing on what were actually perfectly thrown balls. Williams has been very good protecting the football and making the right reads. He’s made big time plays with his arm and his legs when the Bears have needed them most. If his accuracy improves on the simpler throws and he gets some help from his receivers his completion percentage will go up and watch out. The Bears are a dangerous team and their franchise quarterback hasn’t even reached his peak, yet.

The Rest of the Season

@ Green Bay- A couple weeks ago, I was hoping the Bears would split their two games with the Packers. Now, I want the sweep and I don’t think it’s out of the question. Green Bay has a good defense, but not as dominant as Philadelphia and the Bears just bullied the Eagles defensive line. It’s entirely fathomable that they can do similar to Green Bay. Lambeau is a tough place to win, but if the Bears offensive line can control the line of scrimmage, it’s very possible. The Packers have already lost twice at home, to Philly and to Carolina. I want the Bears to hand them number three next week.

vs Cleveland- The Browns defense, especially Myles Garrett, worries me a little bit. Their offense, however, has me salivating. Cleveland will be starting a rookie quarterback, either Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel, in what will likely be a raucous Soldier Field. I anticipate the Bears defense forcing several turnovers, creating short fields for the offense to offset a stingy Browns defense.

vs Green Bay- Yes, I want the sweep, but this is the gotta have it game against the Packers. Defend Soldier Field and they have a decent shot at winning the NFC North. Speaking of defending, the Bears defense could be as close to full strength as they’ve been all season for this game. TJ Edwards should be back by then and Tremaine Edmunds is eligible to come off IR for this one. I think the Bears could force Jordan Love into a couple turnovers in this one.

@ San Francisco- I have to admit, as the season has progressed and the Bears have gotten better and better, this game has started to concern me more. The reason is because the Niners are a gutsy team that has battled through numerous injuries to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. A west coast road trip this late in the season is tough and San Fran could be fighting for their playoff lives. It’s a winnable game for the Bears, but also a prime spot for a letdown if they beat the Packers the week before.

vs Detroit- The Lions annihilated Chicago in week two, but that was a different Bears team. Detroit still poses a threat. They have superb playmakers in Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St.Brown & Jameson Williams. They have a quarterback, Jared Goff, who can use those weapons to great effect if he’s not pressured. Add in the fact that Detroit might be very desperate for a win to make the postseason and this one could be a nail biter, if the Bears don’t have things wrapped up by then. Can Dennis Allen dial up some pressure on Goff and force a couple mistakes?

I think the Bears go 3-2 down the stretch, but I do think 4-1 is possible. I can’t, in good conscience, pick the sweep of Green Bay, but I do think we’ll get the split and that will be enough to win the NFC North.

In addition to the two games with the Bears, Green Bay also has to go to Denver and they host Baltimore. If Chicago goes 3-2, Green Bay has to go 4-1 to wrest the division from our grasp. Detroit would need to go 5-0.

3-2 is probably not good enough to secure the number one seed, because the Rams & Seahawks have identical records to Chicago and each are capable of going 5-0 down the stretch, though they do play each other. Philadelphia also remains a threat, though they do have 2 tough road games remaining and they’re a game behind Chicago and the Bears own the tiebreaker.

Up to Date NFL Predictions

MVP

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
2. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Dark Horse– Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Dark Horse– George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
2. Will Anderson, DE, Houston Texans
3. Kevin Byard, S, Chicago Bears

Dark Horse– Jordyn Brooks, LB, Miami Dolphins

Offensive Rookie of the Year

1. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
2. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts

Dark Horse– Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears

Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns
2. Nick Emmanwori, S, Seattle Seahawks
3. Abdul Carter, DE, New York Giants

Dark Horse– Will Johnson, CB, Arizona Cardinals

Coach of the Year

1. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
2. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears
3. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Dark Horse– Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

Updated Super Bowl Pick

OVER

Last Week: 9-5 / 6-8

Season: 117-61 / 90-88

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Green Bay dominated the first matchup, but this one is in Detroit. I like the Lions.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives, I’ll bet on the Chiefs recent history.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens

Joe Burrow will be back, but I think the Ravens are going to pull away in the AFC North.

Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

I don’t think the Bears are on the Eagles level, yet, but there is a non-zero chance of an upset here.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)

The Browns defense is legit, don’t count them out, but I think the Niners pull this one out.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) @ Tennessee Titans

Jaguars should roll and keep marching to a possible playoff spot.

Houston Texans (+4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Texans are resurgent and I like them to pull off the mild upset here and really tighten up the AFC South.

New Orleans Saints (+6) @ Miami Dolphins

I like the Dolphins to pick up another win, but I’d never take them to cover more than a field goal.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets (+2.5)

I’ll take the Jets at home because I just don’t trust the Falcons.

Los Angeles Rams (-10) @ Carolina Panthers

Panthers really need this game, but the Rams are just too good.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

I think the Buccaneers finally get back on track here at home.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)

Darnold & the Seahawks show the Vikings the mistake they made.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

Chargers have offensive line problems, but the Raiders are trash.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)

Both teams should be desperate. I think the Bills pull out the road win.

Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders (+6.5)

Broncos should win, but I don’t trust them to cover.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-7.5)

The Patriots keep marching towards that number one seed.