Author Archives: henpunk2

N&D NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (Post Free Agency)

Posted by henpunk2 on

The first round of the NFL Draft hinges on Quarterbacks and what teams are desperate enough to make the big move.

There are several teams in the QB market in the first round. Obviously, Jacksonville and the New York Jets are well positioned to grab a franchise QB with the first two picks, but others may need to make a trade to get themselves into position.

As I see it, the teams most likely to trade up for a QB are the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Washington Football Team & the Chicago Bears.

To a lesser extent, teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and the reigning champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could take a QB if one falls to them or make a minor move to acquire one,

The elephant in the room, of course, is Deshaun Watson. Houston has to realize that Watson is adamant about never playing another down in a Texans’ uniform. They’ll trade him, preferably to a team with a top ten draft pick and they may still need to trade up further to get a replacement. I address this in this mock, as you will see.

All that being said, I present my first post- free agency mock draft of 2021:

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: Done. This pick is a lock.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Jets could throw the whole draft for a loop if they decide to stick with Sam Darnold. They won’t, the new regime will start fresh with a new franchise QB, and I don’t believe they’re serious players in the Watson sweepstakes.

*TRADE ALERT*

Miami trades the third overall pick to Houston for a package including the eighth overall pick, which Houston acquired from Carolina as part of the package in exchange for Deshaun Watson.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Houston ships Watson to Carolina for a bevy of picks and QB Teddy Bridgewater. With Philly and Atlanta ahead of them, and others jockeying to move into position, the Texans flip some of the picks acquired to Miami and move up to get their new franchise QB. Lance can sit behind Bridgewater for a year to learn the ropes, his upside is HUGE.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Atlanta Falcons trade the fourth overall selection to the Denver Broncos for a package including the ninth overall pick.

4. DENVER BRONCOS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: The phone in Atlanta will be ringing off the hook, ultimately Denver gives Atlanta the best return and grabs their franchise QB. They have to have seen enough from Drew Lock to know he’s a decent back up at best, time to take another shot.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: The run on Quarterbacks allows Cincy’s preferred target to fall to them at #5. They need to protect Joe Burrow, they can find him weapons later in the draft.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Philly could pounce if Justin Fields is still available, but I don’t see them trading up. They’ll stick with Jalen Hurts at QB and bring in a high end back up like Philly hero Nick Foles. The Eagles will likely ship out Zach Ertz on draft night and Pitts would fit in nicely as a hybrid TE/WR and overall match up nightmare.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: The Lions lost their entire receiving corps to free agency, lucky for them they have their pick of a deep and talented class of wide receivers,

8. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: Dolphins trade out of the three spot and add more draft capital, then scoop up Tua Tagoviola’s former Crimson Tide teammate, who may be the most dynamic player in the entire draft.

9. ATLANTA FALCONS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Atlanta trades down and adds the top corner in the draft to a porous defense.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Dallas Cowboys trade the tenth overall selection to the Los Angeles Chargers for a package including the thirteenth overall selection.

10. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: In the first non quarterback related trade, the Chargers target a stud tackle and jump 3 spots to secure him.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Giants have to give Daniel Jones the weapons to succeed. (As I was writing this, NY signed Kenny Golloday, which may get me to rethink this pick in later mocks)

12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Niners will explore a trade up for a QB, but ultimately decide the price is too high. Instead, I think they’ll trade a later round pick or two to the Jets and bring in Sam Darnold to compete with Jimmy Garrapolo. With their first round pick, the Niners snag a replacement for Richard Sherman.

13. DALLAS COWBOYS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: The Cowboys should be addressing defense, but rebuilding their offensive line is another priority. Darrisaw is simply too good to pass up here.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: The Vikings offensive line needs help, but Mike Zimmer prides himself on defense and Minnesota’s was lacking in 2020.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Parsons is a top ten talent, but character concerns and fit push him down the board. Bill Belichick won’t hesitate to add another piece to his defense.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: Cardinals lost Kenyan Drake in free agency, so they nab his replacement here.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Jon Gruden would love to have a ground and pound offense and that starts in the trenches. Jenkins would add a mean streak to the Raiders’ offensive line.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Miami Dolphins trade the eighteenth overall selection to the Chicago Bears for a package including the twentieth overall pick.

18. CHICAGO BEARS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Chicago is picking a QB in this draft. They’ll explore a trade up into the top ten for a shot at Lance/ Fields but ultimately don’t have enough draft capital to outbid Houston or Denver. They may be content to look at second or third round prospects (Trask, Mills, Mond), but when Jones gets within range they pull the trigger to leapfrog Washington and grab their potential franchise QB.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: With Jones off the board, Washington goes best player available and selects an enticing hybrid LB/S to add to an already stellar defense.

20. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Miami does it again, trades down a couple spots, adding draft capital and then adds another weapon to Tua’s supporting cast. Etienne is a fantastic rusher and accomplished pass catcher, the Dolphins offense could make great strides in 2021.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Indianapolis Colts trade the twenty first overall selection to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for a package including the twenty seventh overall pick.

21. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: The Ravens lost 2 edge rushers in free agency, when Paye slips out of the top twenty Baltimore swings the deal to scoop him up.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: The Titans had eyes for Paye but get thwarted by Baltimore, instead they add a potential lock down corner.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Jets could go offensive line here, but Bateman is too good to pass up. They give Zach Wilson a potential number one receiver to grow and learn with.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: The Steelers lost Bud Dupree in free agency, but rebuilding their offensive line trumps adding another edge rusher. Vera-Tucker could be a day one starter at guard or tackle.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Have to protect the new franchise QB and Cosmi is the best tackle on the board.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: The Browns go best player available and pair Phillips with Myles Garrett to form a potentially lethal edge rushing duo.

27. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: The Colts trade down and add a corner to an already solid defense.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Drew Brees retired but New Orleans won’t trade up or reach for a QB. They lost Trey Hendrickson in free agency and find his replacement here.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: The Packers could upgrade Aaron Rodgers’ protection but opt to give him another weapon instead.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Best player available scenario for Buffalo and they snag a disruptive force for their defensive line.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan: The Chiefs made some moves in free agency to bolster Patrick Mahomes’ protection, another addition is not out of order.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: The Super Bowl champs go best player available and add the best safety in the draft to a stellar defense.

There are still plenty of free agency moves to come, and dominoes to fall in the QB carousel. Also, as pro days progress we should get a better idea of how teams view certain prospects. I’ll do another mock in a few weeks, and probably a seven round mock for some select teams.

Thanks for reading, as always.

N&D 2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.2 (Trades)

Posted by henpunk2 on

Doing a mock draft with projected trades prior to free agency is an exercise in futility. You pretty much have to speculate on what free agents wind up where, especially with quarterbacks, but also including wide receivers, running backs and other key positions.

I decided if I was going to do a mock with trades prior to the start of free agency (March 17), I was going to be BOLD with my projections. In doing so, I’ve made predictions on how the QB carousel plays out along with a couple other high profile players.

Without further ado, I present my first mock draft of 2021 with projected trades.

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No need to get too crazy here. This pick is set in stone.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Most view NY as the most likely landing spot for Deshaun Watson should he force Houston to trade him. It makes sense, the Jets have the most draft capital with which to pry him away from the Texans. However, if everyone thinks this could happen, then it’s not bold enough. Instead the Jets stand pat and use this pick to draft their franchise QB. This pick changed from my first mock, but I’m becoming convinced NY is enamored with Wilson.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS (Projected trade w/ Miami)- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: Admittedly, this BOLD trade idea did not originate with me. The credit goes to Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports, but as soon as I saw it the idea became cemented in my mind.

In my version, Houston would acquire this pick, the 81st pick in this draft & Miami’s 2022 first round pick PLUS Tua Tagoviola in exchange for Deshaun Watson. In my mind, it makes total sense. Houston might get a bigger draft haul from the Jets, but they would still need to draft a QB. Here they get a second year, possible franchise QB plus a decent draft haul, which they can use exclusively to improve Tua’s surrounding cast.

For Miami, I doubt they’d move on from Tua after only one year UNLESS it was for a superstar like Watson. Deshaun Watson would instantly make the Dolphins a Super Bowl contender AND they would still hold on to their other first round pick in this draft.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I’ve rejected the idea of Atlanta using this pick to grab Matt Ryan’s replacement, but here I’m projecting a BOLD move that is entirely of my own making. What if the Falcons were to trade Ryan? I’ll address that a bit later.

5. DENVER BRONCOS (Projected trade w/Cincinnati)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Some team is going to make the move to this spot to grab the last of the big 4 quarterbacks. In this case, I’m thinking Denver. Drew Lock is not the answer and the Broncos need to get ahead of Carolina & Philadelphia to ensure themselves of getting Lance. They pay a premium to move up four spots, but they may finally have their next franchise QB.

Trade details: Denver acquires this pick in exchange for the #9 & #235 picks this year plus next years first and third round picks.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Rumor has it Philly covets Fields but they won’t get him without trading up. They might be better served giving the reins fully to Jalen Hurts, acquiring a veteran back up (Nick Foles?) and improving the supporting cast. Addressing the offensive line wouldn’t be the worst idea, but adding the Heisman trophy winner to last year’s first round pick Jaelen Raegor would vastly improve their receiving corps.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: Detroit’s entire receiving corps are set to hit free agency and I had the Lions addressing the position in my first mock, but Paye wasn’t available at #7 in that one. Defense has been the Lions’ Achilles heel, adding a dynamic pass rusher is the right move.

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: I don’t see the Panthers paying the steep price it would require to move up for a QB, not with Teddy Bridgewater in the fold. Parsons filling their Luke Keuchly void would be a good step in returning Carolina’s defense to relevancy.

9. CINCINNATI BENGALS (Projected trade w/ Denver)- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: Cincy trades down 4 spots for a nice draft haul AND still lands the player they would likely have taken at #5. Sewell is the best tackle in the draft and protecting franchise QB Joe Burrow trumps giving him more weapons, for now.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: One way or another, Dak Prescott will remain in Dallas for at least 2021, meaning the Cowboys most pressing needs are on the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner is always a welcome addition.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Yes, NY has Evan Engram at TE, but Pitts is so much more than just a TE. He’s a WR in a tight end’s body. Some think he may be the best pass catcher in the draft. The Giants need to give Daniel Jones more reliable targets.

12. ATLANTA FALCONS (Projected trade w/ San Francisco)- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Here’s the BOLD move I alluded to earlier. Atlanta ships Matt Ryan to San Fran in exchange for this pick, pick #156 this year and a third rounder next year. Atlanta can sign a veteran bridge QB until Fields is ready to take over (Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton would make sense) and use this pick to help their porous defense.

San Francisco is only a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance with an erratic and oft-injured Jimmy Garrapolo at QB. The 49ers boast a solid roster that was decimated by injuries last year. They don’t need to groom a young QB, they need a solid veteran QB to take the reins. Remember this, Matt Ryan was the NFL MVP the last time he was in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to protect him.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Offensive line is a possibility, but it feels like Mike Zimmer would love to improve his defense. This is the same position I had the Vikings addressing in my first mock, but a different player. I’ve become convinced that most scouts have Rousseau higher than Joseph Ossai.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: I had NE taking Mac Jones in my first mock and he’s still available here, but two things have changed. First, I think Belichick will bring back Jimmy G, either by trade or free agency should San Fran release him and Waddle is available at this spot. No matter who plays QB for the Patriots they need better receivers.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: The Cardinals could have their pick of the best RBs in the draft here, or improve Kyler Murray’s protection, but Horn feels like a natural fit for the Arizona defense.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah: First, the Raiders will not trade Derek Carr, so no need to reach for a QB here. Second, LV could go in several directions with this pick but a hybrid LB/S like Owusu-Koramoah seems like the kind of player Jon Gruden would love.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Miami made the BOLD move to acquire Deshaun Watson and I’m going to boldly predict they land RB Aaron Jones in free agency. Their offensive line is decent and can be addressed later in the draft. Their defense is solid. What they could use is another pass catcher for Watson. Bateman is a solid WR with a high floor and high ceiling.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: My BOLD prediction for the Football Team is that they’ll sign Cam Newton in free agency, reuniting him with Ron Rivera. I think Washington really likes Taylor Heinecke, who showed promise late in the season and won’t look to make a big splash at QB. Instead they’ll conserve their resources for this year and improve other areas. Darrisaw is a plug and play tackle that could alleviate the possible loss of Brandon Scherff. This is the same position, but a different player, that I had Washington addressing in my first mock, reflecting a change in my thinking of player rankings.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC: I don’t think Chicago has the draft capital to move up for a QB nor trade for a veteran like Watson or Carr. I also think they’re unlikely to move Nick Foles’ contract, so they may be stuck with him. What I think the Bears will do at QB is acquire Sam Darnold from the Jets.

Carson Wentz was traded for a third round pick and a conditional second rounder. Darnold’s price should be lower. I’m thinking a conditional third rounder and one of Chicago’s three sixth rounders this year could get it done. The hope for the Bears is that Darnold wins the starting job and shows signs of being the QB Mitchell Trubisky never would be. If he fails, a new regime in Chicago would be better positioned to draft a franchise QB next year.

I also need to address Allen Robinson. Somehow, someway he’ll remain in Chicago through 2021, so no need to go WR here. This pick should therefore be used to improve the offensive line. With Darrisaw gone, the Bears nab the versatile Vera-Tucker instead.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida: Indy addressed their biggest issue by acquiring Carson Wentz from Philly and they did so without relinquishing this pick. The Colts are a solid team with very few holes. TY Hilton may leave in free agency, so a complimentary receiver next to Michael Pittman could be in order.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Azeez Ojulari. EDGE, Georgia: Tennessee has to get better defensively. I had them taking Rousseau in my first mock, but he’s off the board here. Ojulari is next on the list of Edge rushers.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: The Jets landed their new franchise QB earlier, now they need to give him weapons. WR is possible, but the position is deep in this draft. Nothing helps a young QB like a solid running game, Jets have their pick of the litter at RB.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Ben Roethlisberger will most likely come back for one more season and the Steelers took a flyer on Dwayne Haskins so I don’t see them drafting a QB this year. Pittsburgh’s running game was practically non-existent last season and they may lose Alejandro Villenueva in free agency, they need to improve their blocking.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama: The Jags got their franchise QB, now they need to keep him upright. Same position but different player as my first mock as my player rankings evolve.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Ifeatu Melifownu, CB, Syracuse: Cleveland actually has very few glaring needs. A solid corner opposite Denzel Ward would be a nice addition.

27. ATLANTA FALCONS (Projected trade w/ Baltimore)- Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama: The Falcons make another BOLD move trading Julio Jones and the 183rd pick in this draft to Baltimore for this pick and a third rounder next year. Atlanta uses the pick to nab the top interior defensive lineman in the draft.

Baltimore would likely have used this pick to draft a WR, instead they give Lamar Jackson a reliable, future Hall of Fame pass catcher.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: It feels like Drew Brees will retire. Sean Payton may say he’s fine with Taysom Hill as his starter, but he can’t pass up Jones here.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Travis Etienne- RB, Clemson: I predicted that Aaron Jones would take his talents to South Beach, so RB becomes a need for the Packers. Getting Etienne, who is a decent pass catcher, would allow the Aaron Rodgers led offense to not miss a beat.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Joesph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: Buffalo has a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. You can never have enough Edge rushers. Ossai wasn’t available here in my first mock, the Bills pounce on him now.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: KC absolutely has to improve Patrick Mahomes’ protection. Jenkins was off the board in this spot in my first mock, the Chiefs don’t hesitate.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: The champs seem likely to lose Shaq Barrett in free agency. Replacing him with a freak athlete like Oweh isn’t a bad consolation prize.

I may attempt a three round mock before free agency, or I may not. I may just relax and see how things unfold on March 17.

As always, thanks for reading.

Chicago Bears 7 Round Mock Draft 1.0 (No trades)

Posted by henpunk2 on

So, Carson Wentz will not be a Chicago Bear. I, like many Bears fans breathed a sigh of relief. Look, Wentz may revert to his near MVP form, but it wasn’t worth the risk for me. It would have taken more than Indy gave up to land him and there was no guarantee he’d ever stick around. If he failed in Chicago it would have meant the end of the Pace/Nagy era. I’m fine with Pace being gone, he’s found some late round gems and some rather cheap free agent wins, but his big swings have mostly been misses. Roquan Smith has been his only first round success and Allen Robinson was his only real big ticket free agent win, and now he may have alienated his best offensive player.

On the other hand, I differ from a lot of Bears fans (at least the ones that I read online) in that I like Matt Nagy. Maybe it’s because I live in Nagy’s hometown. Maybe it’s because with an imperfect QB he’s led us to the playoffs twice and hasn’t had a losing season. Remember when we jettisoned Lovie Smith after a winning season that fell short of the playoffs? It took nearly a decade to get back there. Nagy can win, with the right QB.

And that bring us to the crux of the issue. The Chicago Bears need a QB. They should and probably will move on from Mitchell Trubisky. Can they be a playoff team with Trubisky? Absolutely, he’s proven that much, but he’s also proven his limitations and the fact that he is not a franchise QB. The only reason to bring him back is if you think there’s another level he can reach. Nagy benched him this past season because he knows that other level isn’t there.

So, where does that leave us? Trade for a QB? Possibly. Is Deshaun Watson truly available? Are we willing to part with the picks it will take to land him? We should be, but the real question is will we be able to put the best package together? That’s a pretty definitive no. Derek Carr? Personally, this is the option I like best, as far as trades go. He’ll cost at least one first round pick, and we’d have to find a way to unload salary (Nick Foles, especially) to get under the cap. Carr isn’t an elite QB, but he’s solid and he can win games for you. With our D, we don’t really need elite QB play, above average puts us in the playoffs. Does it get us above Green Bay? No, but honestly nothing will until Aaron Rodgers moves on. Adding Carr, though, keeps us in the game, within striking distance.

But, alas, I’m not speculating trades at this point. Nor am I hypothetically considering free agent acquisitions, which to be honest don’t offer a real upgrade at the QB position, only stop gaps. One such stop gap I would like to mention, however, is Alex Smith. Smith has injury concerns to be sure, but when healthy he is the very definition of steady and capable. He could be had relatively cheap, and he’s capable of holding the reins while Nagy and company develop a rookie. We can make the playoffs with a healthy Alex Smith. Of course, to follow this path means finding a way out of Nick Foles contract.

Which brings me to the most likely scenario, right now. Nick Foles will the Chicago Bears starting QB for 2021. This may make you cringe, it makes me cringe a little, but consider this: Nick Foles played behind a terrible offensive line last year, and with his mobility issues that’s less than ideal. The Bears found some stability on the line during the latter half of the season and they’ll welcome back James Daniels from injury. The solid run game the Bears showed down the stretch will help Foles as well. Foles being the QB1 isn’t as terrifying as you might think. It would mean drafting a QB is a must, and preferably trading up in the first round to do so (Trey Lance, I’m looking at you).

I’ll reiterate that I’m not considering trades in this mock, and I’m going with the assumption that Nick Foles is our QB1. I used http://thedraftnetwork.com for this mock, so actual pick numbers may be skewed. Without further ado, my first Chicago Bears 7 round mock draft of 2021:

First Round, Pick #20- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Without trading up, the top 4 QBs are off the board. Mac Jones is available but I’m not sold on his fit with Chicago. I prefer a more athletic QB for our offense. Jones would be okay for us, but not in the first round. Tackle is our second most pressing need. Bobby Massie is a likely cap casualty, even still the Bears need to upgrade at tackle. I mocked Darrisaw to us in my full first round mock and he’s sitting there for me here. Plug and play tackle upgrades our line.

Round Two, Pick #52- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: Mac Jones is off the board when we reach the Bears pick in round two. No other QB is worth a second round nod. Bears have two pressing needs on a solid defense, a complimentary Edge rusher for Khalil Mack and a safety. Tashaun Gipson was good last year, but he was on a one year deal and will cost more to retain. Chicago is a bit cap strapped, so it’s likely to let him walk. Moehrig is a day one starter and with Eddie Jackson’s return to All-Pro form would give the Bears a formidable back end of the D.

Round Three, Pick #83- Kyle Trask, QB, Florida: Without trading up, this is the best case scenario for the Chicago Bears. Trask isn’t a perfect fit, as I said earlier I’d prefer a more athletic QB, but this is round 3 not round 1, and of the QBs left, Trask has the best shot of developing into a solid starter.

Round Five, Pick #165– Bryce Thompson, CB, Tennessee: Buster Skrine is a likely cap casualty so the Bears have a need for a nickel corner. Thompson is best suited for the outside, but corner depth is welcome. His ball hawking skills cannot be overlooked.

Round Six, Pick #205- Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech: Ryan Pace has had draft success in later rounds and this pick would continue that trend. Herbert would provide a nice one-two punch with David Montgomery and could carry the load should injury strike.

Round Six, Pick #219- Austin Watkins, WR, UAB: If the Bears let Allen Robinson walk (big mistake) they’d need to address WR earlier, but here Ryan Pace finds another late round gem. Watkins has some serious upside and many other mock drafts have him coming off the board much earlier. He’s here and I’ll disregard offensive line depth and a developmental Edge rusher for a possible late round home run.

As I said, I’m not one hundred percent sure the picks are accurate- for example, I’m pretty sure the Bears have a seventh round pick from the Adam Shaheen deal, but it’s not listed here. No matter, this is an early preliminary mock draft and much will change between now and April 30.

BEAR DOWN, CHICAGO!

N&D 2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Posted by henpunk2 on

For my first mock draft of 2021, I’m not considering any trades or speculating on who ends up where during the QB carousel. I do, very briefly, consider possible losses via free agency.

Some dates to remember: Free Agency officially starts on March 17, with legal tampering allowed on March 15. The NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 29.

I used TheDraftNetwork.com to make this mock draft.

  1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No need to over-think this. Lawrence is the best QB prospect to enter the draft since Peyton Manning.
  2. NEW YORK JETS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I believe the new regime in NY will move on from Sam Darnold. Either they take Fields here or move the pick to get Deshaun Watson.
  3. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: There is some chatter about Miami moving on from Tua already, not a chance. The Dolphins may trade out of this spot, but for now they take the best tackle in the draft.
  4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: Many pundits think Atlanta will take Matt Ryan’s successor here, I’m not convinced yet. Instead I think they strengthen the defense with the best Edge rusher.
  5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: With Sewell off the board, Cincy reunites Joe Burrow with one of his favorite college targets.
  6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Eagles continue their search for a true #1 receiver and land the Heisman trophy winner.
  7. DETROIT LIONS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: I had been targeting Zach Wilson here, but the Stafford/Goff trade changed that. Lions add what may be the most dynamic WR in the draft.
  8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Another team that could be players in the QB market, but I like the fit of Parsons stepping into the Luke Keuchly void too much to pull the trigger here.
  9. DENVER BRONCOS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Wilson won’t be here at #9 on draft night, and I’m not sure Denver trades up to get him, but they can’t pass up moving on from Drew Lock if given the chance.
  10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Unless they somehow let Dak Prescott walk, Dallas has to address the defense here.
  11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Pitts isn’t a normal TE, he’s a young Jimmy Graham type. Physical mismatch for any individual defender.
  12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Niners likely would need to move up to land Lance, but I like the fit here if they move on from Jimmy G.
  13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to protect him.
  14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: It just feels like Mike Zimmer will address his defense with this pick.
  15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Jones might not last this long, but he feels like a perfect fit for a Belichick team.
  16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Arizona could go in several directions, just feels like defense takes priority.
  17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: Another team that may be in the QB market. Owusu-Koramoah just feels like a Gruden guy to me.
  18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: WR is a possibility here, but nothing helps a young QB like a solid running game.
  19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Yet another team in the QB market, won’t have a shot without trading up, so they bolster the protection instead.
  20. CHICAGO BEARS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Chicago is also in the QB mix, but solidifies the line instead.
  21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Another team in the QB market, they address defense instead.
  22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami: Feels like the Titans must address defense here.
  23. NEW YORK JETS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: This would be a home run of a first round for the Jets. Landing the franchise QB and a number one receiver.
  24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: Steelers run game was atrocious this year. They address blocking first.
  25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan: The Jaguars landed their franchise QB, now they need to protect him.
  26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa: Cleveland finally ended their playoff drought, not many holes in this roster. Another disruptive force on defense is never a bad idea.
  27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: Giving Lamar Jackson another weapon seems a likely direction for the Ravens to go.
  28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri: As good as the Saints’ defense can be, they’ve been a little lacking at the second level. Bolton can change that.
  29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Improving the offensive line seems the most likely direction for the Packers to take.
  30. BUFFALO BILLS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami: Defensive side of the ball is Bills’ most pressing need. Can never have enough pass rushers.
  31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame: As the Super Bowl proved, Chiefs need to protect Patrick Mahomes better.
  32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Defending Super Bowl champs have the luxury of picking the best player available. Adding to an already impressive defense is an added bonus.

Henry’s Final 2018 NFL Mock Draft

Posted by henpunk2 on

1. Cleveland Browns– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– If I’m Cleveland’s GM, knowing the track record of bad QB’s, I’m taking Darnold. Don’t get me wrong, I love Josh Allen, I think he’s going to be great, but there is risk. The Browns should be as risk averse as possible, they don’t need a home run here, just a hit. Allen is a swing for the fences, and a perfectly Browns move.
2. New York Giants– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– All the talk of the Giants wanting a ‘gold jacket’ guy is pure obfuscation. The chances of being in a position to land their next franchise QB without selling the farm are slim. Eli isn’t getting any younger, and Darnold fell in their lap. Slam dunk.
3. New York Jets– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– This is obviously a QB and I think the Jets had their sights set on either Allen or Mayfield. With Cleveland taking Allen, Mayfield heads to New York.
4. Cleveland Browns– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– Once again, if I’m John Dorsey, this wouldn’t be the pick. I’d pair Chubb with last year’s overall number one Myles Garrett and form a devastating edge rush tandem for years to come. Even after adding Carlos Hyde, the Browns can’t resist adding the best player in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– Rumor has Elway enamored with Mayfield. With him off the board, Denver opts to improve the protection for Case Keenum with the best OL in the draft.
6. Indianapolis Colts– Bradley Chubb,EDGE, NC State– I had Indy trading out of this spot in my last mock, but that was with Chubb off the board. Here, they stay put and take the guy they would have at #3.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Derwin James, S, Florida State– I mocked Barkley here in both my previous mock drafts, but he’s off the board here. Tampa opts to shore up the back end of their defense instead.
8. Buffalo Bills*– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– When Rosen begins to fall, Buffalo knows they need to get in front of Miami and also compete with New England. They pay a steep price to move up, but not as steep as it could have been to get their franchise QB.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– San Fran lands the top corner in the draft.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– Gruden has made some questionable moves since taking over so this pick could be a wild card. Smith is one of the least risky picks in the first round and fills a major need.
11. Miami Dolphins– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– Miami covets Rosen, but they don’t have the draft capital to prevent Buffalo from leap frogging them. They settle for a replacement for Ndamukong Suh.
12. Chicago Bears*– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Once Nelson is off the board, Chicago is a willing trade partner for a QB needy team, Buffalo comes calling. Netting another second round pick and recouping the third rounder they gave up to get Trubisky, the Bears still add they guy I mocked to them at #8 in my first two mock drafts. Big win for Ryan Pace.
13. Washington Redskins– Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama– The best DB in the draft falls to #13 due to the uncertainty of his position in an NFL defense. Washington benefits and will happily find a spot for him.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– One of the few picks I haven’t changed for any of my mocks. It makes too much sense, especially in a division that has seen a major upgrade in the passing game.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– I’ve been seeing WR in this spot quite a bit recently, but I still think Arizona has to upgrade the QB spot. Bradford cannot stay healthy and Glennon is just terrible.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– I could flip flop the Arizona/Baltimore picks, I’m pretty confident Jackson and Ridley will go to either of them.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers could be the class of the AFC West this season, keeping Philip Rivers upright will make or break their season. Adding the best OT in the draft should help.
18. Seattle Seahawks– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– Seattle lost a lot of firepower on their once vaunted D, but the O-Line has been a problem for years.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– I was convinced Dallas would go defense here, then they released Dez Bryant. They need a target for Dak Prescott. For my money, Sutton is the best WR in the draft.
20. Detroit Lions– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– Mocked a RB here in my last mock, but I remembered Matt Patricia is a defensive guy from the Belichick school. Landry beefs up the Detroit pass rush.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– Offensive line is a definite possibility, but with Vontaze Burfict suspended again, Cincy looks to his future replacement.
22. Buffalo Bills– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Buffalo had to trade this pick to get their QB in my last mock. They keep it in this one and use it strengthen their defense.
23. New England Patriots– Leighton Vander Esche, LB, Boise State– Vander Esche just seems like the perfect Patriots linebacker.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– I absolutely love this fit. Adding weapons and/or protection for Cam Newton is a possibility, but I think the value is lacking at this spot.
25. Tennessee Titans– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– I’ve gone back and forth on this pick. Mocked Davenport in my first mock, went Wynn in my second. I’m back to Davenport.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Taven Bryan, DL, Florida– I mocked Payne to the Falcons in my previous two mocks. He’s off the board now, but the need remains. Rumor has it Atlanta is enamored with Bryan.
27. New Orleans Saints– Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State– I flirted with the idea of the Saints picking Drew Brees’ successor here, but instead gave them the TE they’ve been lacking since Jimmy Graham.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– The Steelers have been the hardest team for me to mock, I’ve had them going in three different directions now. Guice is the RB that will allow Pittsburgh to let someone else break the bank for Le’Veon Bell after this season.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA– Plenty of mock drafts have the Jags taking a QB here, but that really isn’t Tom Coughlin’s style. Building from the trenches is, after adding Andrew Norwell, they draft the best tackle available.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– The top ranked defense, the jewel of free agency, a dynamic RB coming back from an injury shortened rookie season, solid receiving corps. Minnesota’s needs are few, offensive line is one and they add the best lineman available.
31. New England Patriots– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado– I mocked a WR here last time, but the value isn’t really there. I do think the Patriots are in the market for Tom Brady’s successor, but their eyes are on Rosen, they won’t reach for anyone else. Instead, they’ll fill a need with the best player available.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida– The defending champs have few needs and none offer a similar value at this spot. Eagles traded for Worley, then released him after his arrest. This pick makes sense.

* Speculated trade between Chicago and Buffalo- Chicago trades #8 overall to Buffalo for #12, #56 and #96 overall.

Henry’s NFL Mock Draft 2.0

Posted by henpunk2 on

Allow me to add a few caveats before getting into the picks. First, let me establish the teams I think could draft a QB in the first round, and the odds of them doing so. Cleveland (100%), New York Giants (90%), New York Jets (100%), Denver (25%), Miami (50%), Buffalo (99%), Arizona (75%), New Orleans (10%), Pittsburgh (10%), Jacksonville (5%), New England (1%).

That being established, allow me now to identify the teams that I believe could possibly trade down or up. New York Giants at #2, I am nearly convinced it won’t happen, but I suppose it could, Buffalo does have the firepower to make this move. Cleveland at #4 is a very real possibility, though the asking price will be huge and maybe not what a QB needy team is willing to give for the 4th QB off the board. Denver at #5 is a slight possibility. The most likely trade down teams are Indy at #6, Tampa Bay at #7, Chicago at #8, San Francisco at #9 and Oakland at #10. For the fourth QB off the board this seems to me to be the area to target.

As for the teams that could trade up, Buffalo sitting at #12 seems the most likely. If the Giants are truly shopping that pick, Buffalo has the draft capital to make the move. I don’t think the Giants are though. Buffalo will balk at Cleveland’s asking price at #4. If they think, however, that Miami might take a QB at #11 or that Arizona might leapfrog them, they will make the move up to the 6-10 range.

I think Miami will stay at #11, if one of the top 4 QBs fall to them, they may pounce, if not they’ll go another direction. Arizona is the team that Buffalo needs to be wary of. They don’t have the draft capital the Bills have, but they have as big of a need. I think, however, they would be content to stay at #15 and take the fifth option at QB.

One final note, in my opinion the top 4 players in this class are NOT QBs, though I think they will be at least the top 3 players off the board. My top 4 would be Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson, Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
I think circumstances such as the rush for QBs and the lesser emphasis on three of those four’s positions (RB, OG & S) as well as team needs will precipitate a lower draft standing than their talent warrants.

All that being said, I offer my second mock draft, precipitated by the Patriots-Rams Brandin Cooks trade…

1. Cleveland Browns– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– I am convinced Cleveland has to go QB here and I’m nearly as convinced it has to be Darnold, there’s been rumblings about Allen and to a lesser degree Rosen, but Darnold is the safest choice and Cleveland can’t afford to gamble and lose with this pick.
2. New York Giants– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– One must assume that the bounty given to Indy for the #3 pick was also offered to the Giants. To turn that down, the G-men are either looking for more from someone like Buffalo (a brave gamble) or they’re taking Eli’s successor here. The talk of Chubb and Barkley here is nonsense. This pick is a QB either by the Giants or a trade up team. If it’s the Giants, I think it’s Rosen.
3. New York Jets– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– The Jets didn’t give up the bounty they did to move to this spot for anything but a QB and they have to love 3 of them. Allen has the big arm that can make scouts and coaches drool.
4. Cleveland Browns– Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State– In my first mock draft I had Cleveland trading out of this spot to Buffalo. I’m not sure the Bills are willing to pay the steep price Cleveland will demand for what amounts to the fourth best QB. I think Cleveland stays put and the options are Chubb or Barkley. Pairing Barkley and Darnold would be interesting, but pairing Chubb with last year’s #1, Myles Garrett, could make the Cleveland’s D elite.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– I don’t believe Denver is seriously in the QB derby, Keenum was great last year and Lynch is in only his third year. Passing on a generational talent in either Nelson or Barkley for the fourth best QB in this scenario doesn’t make sense. Denver’s line was shoddy last year and Elway knows that he won 2 Super Bowls because he had a great line. Nelson is a beast.
6. Buffalo Bills*– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– Indy could stay here and take Barkley, but I think with Chubb off the board they’re very open to trading down, again. If the rumbles of either Arizona or Miami moving up get louder, Buffalo will pull the trigger. They moved up to 12 just so they could be in this position. They aren’t leaving the first round without a QB.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– If Indy stays put and takes Barkley, Tampa may either take Fitzpatrick or trade down with one of the QB needy teams. I still think Barkley stays on the board until this point and Tampa is ecstatic to add the most dynamic player in the draft.
8. Chicago Bears– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Bears are another prime candidate to trade down and add draft assets, but I think it will end up being Indy. Staying put, there are plenty of options for Chicago. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Chubb or Nelson to still be on the board (more likely Nelson) and Chicago could lean that way. Ryan Pace has shown an affinity for athletic freaks with loads of potential and that description fits Edmunds to a T.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama– The Niners are yet another trade down candidate, but I think they stay put and add the best defensive back in the draft.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– I’m beginning to wonder if Jon Gruden actually knows what he’s doing. Oakland is paying him like a coaching god, but he’s been out of the league a long time. He might want to take the game back to 1998, but those days are long gone. Either way, this is a smart, safe choice.
11. Miami Dolphins– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– I think the rumors of Miami being in the QB market are legit, if one of the top four falls to them or they can beat Buffalo to the punch, it could happen. Buffalo has more draft capital to trade up though, and I don’t think Miami will settle for the fifth or sixth best, they’ll get a younger, cheaper, less pain-in-the-ass version of Ndamukong Suh.
12. Indianapolis Colts*– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– If the draft goes like this, Indy is a big, big winner. Might be a little early for Landry, but he is the second best Edge rusher in the draft and has a high ceiling, the extra picks the Colts netted in 2 trade downs is huge.
13. Washington Redskins– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– Not a huge need for Washington, but a corner tandem of Ward and Josh Norman is intimidating as hell. Hard to pass up a top ten talent at this spot.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– This pick just makes too much sense, maybe the new Packers’ GM will actually hit on a first round DB pick.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– With the possible exception of Buffalo, Arizona has the worst QB situation in the league. Bradford is a walking MASH unit, and Mike Glennon showed he is a terrible starting option. If a team builds the right offense around Jackson, he could be the gem of the QB class.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– Another pick that makes too much sense. Baltimore needs receivers and Ridley is the consensus top WR in the class.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers are a potential playoff team with a need at tackle, they take the best one on the board to protect Philip Rivers.
18. Seattle Seahawks– Derwin James, S, Florida State– Protecting Russell Wilson should be priority number one, but I think Pete Carroll can’t resist re-loading his Legion of Boom, especially since James is still on the board.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– A full season of Ezekiel Elliott and a healthy O-Line should improve the Dallas offense, though I wouldn’t rule out a WR if Ridley or Sutton are still on the board. The Boys are going nowhere, however, if they can’t stop anyone. Evans is a solid performer from a proven program, Jerry Jones loves those kind of guys.
20. Detroit Lions– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– Detroit added LeGarrette Blount, a great, bruising RB with a championship pedigree, but he is not an every down back and not a home run hitter. Da’Ron Payne or Vita Vea if he falls is an option here. I think Detroit will opt to finally settle their backfield.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– The Bengals made the trade for Cordy Glenn but O-Line is still a big need. Linebacker and CB are a possibility as well.
22. Indianapolis Colts*– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– I think the Colts would love for Guice to be here but I have Detroit snagging him 2 spots earlier. They could go LB here, but giving Andrew Luck another weapon seems to be the play.
23. New England Patriots– Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan– The Patriots would love for Guice to be here, or one of the offensive tackles, I have all going before this. Hurst had a medical issue that has since been cleared. New England’s D was suspect last year, Hurst could help anchor the line.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– I don’t see any WR worthy of this pick and maybe the Panthers go Isaiah Wynn to replace the departed Andrew Norwell. I think Alexander makes too much sense though.
25. Tennessee Titans– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– The Titans address their biggest area of need with the best G on the board.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Not changing this pick, if Payne is still on the board he makes too much sense for the Falcons.
27. New Orleans Saints– Leighton Vander Esche, LB, Boise State– If a sixth QB is coming off the board in the first round, this could be the spot. Mason Rudolph would make a ton of sense as an understudy and eventual successor to the future Hall of Famer, Drew Brees, but I think the Saints continue to rebuild the defense by adding an athletic LB.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Justin Reid, S, Stanford– In my first mock I had the Steelers taking Rudolph. I really like that idea, it’s outside the box and a real possibility, but I’ve been hearing Reid in this spot too much lately not to take it seriously. If New Orleans passes on Vander Esche, however, the Steelers will pounce.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA– Another possible landing spot for Rudolph, but I think it would be out of character for Tom Coughlin. He is building this team old school style, and that starts in the trenches. They added Andrew Norwell in free agency and now add another lineman to clear holes for Leonard Fournette.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Minnesota– The offense seems set, though addressing the line is a possibility, I don’t think there are any more lineman worthy of first round consideration. The Vikings instead opt to add another piece to the back end of a defense that got shredded by Nick Foles.
31. New England Patriots– Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M– The Patriots lost Amendola in free agency and traded away Brandin Cooks. They still have Gronk, Chris Hogan and a returning Julian Edelman, but no true field stretcher for Brady. They still need to replace Nate Solder but no tackle offers the value here.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– The Eagles are in an interesting spot. The defending champs have a few ‘needs’, but none of them match up to the value of this spot. Many mocks have Guice falling to them and that could be huge, but I think he goes earlier. Tight end is a possibility, but with Zach Ertz not a huge need. I think they go with best player available and make a team strength even stronger.

* Speculated trade between Indianapolis and Buffalo, Buffalo trades the 12th and 22nd picks in the first round, as well as a second rounder to Indy for the 6th pick in the first round.

Henry’s NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Posted by henpunk2 on

1. Cleveland Browns– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– For the longest time I professed the wisdom of taking Barkley here and getting the QB at 4. The premise being that Barkley wouldn’t be there at 4. Moves by the Jets and pending moves by the Bills have changed that. Cleveland has to get their QB now and they’ll go the safe route in Darnold.
2. New York Giants– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– The Jets’ trade up to 3 tells me the Giants are staying at 2 and there’s only two reasons to do that- a QB or Saquon Barkley. It isn’t Barkley. Rosen is the perfect cerebral QB to learn from Manning for a year or two.
3. New York Jets– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– The Jets made the move to get their franchise QB, would have liked to get up to 2, but will settle for 3. Mayfield isn’t my choice, but something about the Jets tells me he’s theirs.
4. Buffalo Bills *– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– Bills have been positioning themselves to make this move and then the Jets beat them to the punch. Cleveland will extract a BIG price to move down, but Buffalo gets what I think could be the best QB in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– Jets and Bills leapfrog them in the QB derby, but I think Elway is okay with Keenum and not ready to give up on Lynch yet. Protecting the QB is more important and Nelson is one of the two best players in the draft.
6. Indianapolis Colts– Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State– Indy trades down and still gets the guy most mocks had them getting at 3. This is how it’s done.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– Tampa benefits from the run on QB’s and gets what I believe is the best player in the draft. The Tampa O could be electric with him in the fold.
8. Chicago Bears– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Nelson or Chubb would be nice if they fell. Fitzpatrick is good, if not a great fit, but I’ve fallen in love with the athleticism and potential of Edmunds and I think Ryan Pace and Vic Fangio will as well.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama– Another beneficiary of the QB run, San Fran gets a top 4 player to spearhead their secondary.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– One of the safer picks in the draft. Gruden gets a solid LB to help bolster the D,
11. Miami Dolphins– Derwin James, S, Florida State– There’s been speculation that Miami could be in the QB market, but I’m not sold. Who knows what they’re doing? I gave them the BPA and moved on.
12. Cleveland Browns*– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– I expect the Browns to extract a king’s ransom from Buffalo to move down and they’ll still get the best CB in the draft.
13. Washington Redskins– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– Edge rushers are the defensive equivalent of QB’s, teams tend to overvalue them. Might be a little early for Landry but he is the second best EDGE in the draft.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– GB needed secondary help before the entire NFC North upgraded their passing games. BPA meets needs here.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– Arizona is the odd team out in the QB derby and they panic. I think Jackson can be a good pro in the right system, but I’m not sold on him being top half of the first round worthy.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– Even with the Crabtree signing, Baltimore needs to upgrade the WR. Ridley is the safest pick at that position, will be a solid pro.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers are close to contending and the Philip Rivers window is still wide open, protecting him is paramount especially in the sack happy AFC West,
18. Seattle Seahawks– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– Seahawks blew up their once vaunted D, lost their TE and continue their search for a feature back since Beast Mode left. O-Line has always been a problem area for them. They reach a little for the best (non-injured) lineman left.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– Sean Lee is a stud, an oft-injured stud. Dallas adds a solid complement.
20. Detroit Lions– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– Perfect replacement for the departed Haloti Ngata.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– They added Cordy Glenn in the trade down with Buffalo, they’ll still go tackle here.
22. Buffalo Bills– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– Buffalo got their QB, now they get him a weapon. Best WR in the class in my opinion.
23. Los Angeles Rams– Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State– No offensive lineman or receivers worthy of this spot. Rams get a replacement for Alec Ogletree.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– The Bashaud Breeland signing fell through, leaving a need at CB. More weapons for Cam is a possibility, but none worthy of this spot.
25. Tennessee Titans– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– When the best player available is an EDGE rusher, you take him.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Position of need from a proven system. No brainer.
27. New Orleans Saints– Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State– I thought about them getting Drew Brees’ successor here, but I think they add a weapon instead.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State– I had three teams with aging QB’s that might add the sixth QB to the first round (NO, Pittsburgh & NE), Pittsburgh is the one that pulls the trigger. The planning for life after Ben starts now.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas– Jags are a solid, ascending team with only a few holes. LB is one and they take the best available.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida– Can never have enough corners.
31. New England Patriots– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– You will watch him carve up AFC East defenses in the fall and think, Belichick did it again. This is a steal.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado– The Super Bowl Champs go best player available while also following the never enough corners mantra.

* Speculated trade between Cleveland and Buffalo