I’m doing these rankings a bit differently during the playoffs. I’m going to rank the AFC & NFC teams separately. I’ll do a final, full ranking after the Super Bowl.

AFC

5th Seed

The Texans are my pick to come out of the AFC. There’s no team hotter, they’ve won 9 in a row after a sluggish start to the season. They boast the most ferocious defense in the NFL, and if CJ Stroud & the offense can provide a little bit and avoid mistakes, Houston will be a tough out. I know, as a wildcard, they’ll have to win at least two road games to get to the dance, but I trust this defense to get it done.

First Round: at Pittsburgh

3rd Seed

The Jaguars are almost as hot as Houston, winners of 8 straight entering the playoffs. They’re more balanced than Houston, their offense is humming and the defense, while not as stingy as Houston, is opportunistic. They, too, might have to win two road games to get to the Super Bowl, but at least they start the trip with a home game.

First Round: vs Buffalo

1st Seed

I have a lot of reservations about Bo Nix and the Broncos offense, but there is no doubt that Denver has a championship defense. They’ve got home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but we saw Jacksonville come into Denver and manhandle the Broncos just before Christmas. I’m not ready to pick them to go all the way.

First Round: BYE

2nd Seed

The Patriots have had a remarkable season & Mike Vrabel could get Coach of the Year, and Drake Maye is in the running for MVP, but I just don’t see New England emerging from the AFC to make the Super Bowl, I don’t even see them making it to Championship Sunday. This is a young, inexperienced team that benefited greatly from a soft schedule, I just don’t think they’re ready, yet.

First Round: vs LA Chargers

6th Seed

The Bills are the sexy pick to come out of the AFC because they’re familiar & because of Josh Allen, but I’ve been cooler on Buffalo than most all season. I do think they have a better chance than New England, the only reason I have them ranked lower is because I’m less confident they’ll make it out of the first round. Even if they do, I don’t think they could handle defenses like Denver & Houston on the road.

First Round: at Jacksonville

7th Seed

I like the Chargers, but they have a track record of flaming out in the playoffs and they have a beat up offensive line and a beat up quarterback. They’re capable of stunning the Patriots on the road, but that’s as far as they’ll go. There is no way they’re winning two road playoff games, let alone the three it would take to make the Super Bowl.

First Round: at New England

4th Seed

The Steelers earned their playoff berth and you can never count out an Aaron Rodgers led team, but I’d be totally shocked if they made it past Houston, even if it is at home. If they somehow do, they’d almost certainly have to go on the road in the divisional round and that would be the end of the road.

First Round: vs Houston

NFC

3rd Seed

And you thought it was controversial that I ranked Houston first in the AFC? The Eagles are my pick to make the Super Bowl from the NFC. Why? Because of their defense and their championship pedigree. They are the only team that I think is capable of going on the road and beating anyone, and they’re not going to lose at home.

First Round: vs San Francisco

1st Seed

The Seahawks have the defense to make a Super Bowl run and they have home field advantage. That’s huge for them, because I definitely wouldn’t trust Sam Darnold to win a road playoff games. I think only Philly & the Rams are capable of winning in Seattle, but it won’t be easy.

First Round: BYE

5th Seed

The Rams are certainly capable of making a run to the Super Bowl & a month ago they would have been my number one team, but they’ve looked sloppy down the stretch. They should certainly make it out of the first round, but I have to wonder how they’d fare on the road in Philly or Chicago.

First Round: at Carolina

2nd Seed

Not how I wanted to see the Bears enter the playoffs, on a 2 game skid. Green Bay won’t be easy, but it’s in Chicago & the Bears just beat them there 3 weeks ago. They’re also guaranteed a home game in the divisional round if they win, so the path to Championship Sunday is doable.

First Round: vs Green Bay

6th Seed

The Niners went from a shot at the number one seed to the sixth seed and a trip to Philly. Ouch. The Niners offense can hang with anyone, but their defense can’t stop anyone. Even if they somehow get past the first round, I don’t see them getting past either of their division rivals.

First Round: at Philadelphia

7th Seed

The bad news? The Packers enter the playoffs on a four game losing streak. The good news? Aside from Micah Parsons, they should be at full strength. No Parsons, though, is a huge deal. They do get Chicago in the first round, a team they’ve dominated over the years, but this isn’t the same old Bears.

First Round: at Chicago

4th Seed

The Panthers made the playoffs and they should be proud, even if they backed in. They did beat the Rams, in Carolina, at the end of November, but I’d be shocked if they did it again. Still, they should be proud to have made it this far.

First Round: vs LA Rams

Wildcard Round

The Carolina Panthers beat the Los Angeles Rams in Carolina at the end of November, which might suggest this isn’t as big of a mismatch as it would appear.

The Rams haven’t been playing their best football the last several weeks, which might also suggest that the Panthers have a chance.

Carolina, however, quite literally backed into the playoffs. They are almost entirely devoid of any playoff experience on this roster. The Rams, meanwhile, are loaded with it.

I’m picking the Rams to win, but I’ll take the upstart Panthers & the points. CAR (+10.5)

Rams 31-23

The Green Bay Packers & Chicago Bears meet for a third time after splitting their two regular season games. Each team won on their own home field in two wildly competitive games.

The Packers rested their starters in the regular season finale, while the Bears played theirs in a lackluster effort against the Lions.

Green Bay has to be as confident as any seventh seed can be. They’ve had the Bears number for years, and it took an insane comeback, and some major luck, for Chicago to emerge victorious in their last matchup.

These Bears are different, though. Ben Johnson & Caleb Williams know the stakes of this one. The Bears can completely change the landscape of the NFC North with a victory.

They will. CHI (-1.5)

Bears 24-21

No Kansas City Chiefs, no Baltimore Ravens has a lot of people thinking this is the year for the Buffalo Bills to get over the hump in the AFC. I am not one of those.

First off, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last month & it could be argued that they are the best team in the AFC.

Josh Allen may be Superman, but Trevor Lawrence is playing just as good, right now.

I think the Jaguars defense is the difference. JAX (+1.5)

Jaguars 31-28

That was a costly loss in the season finale for the San Francisco 49ers. Not only did they the number one seed, they fell all the way to sixth. Instead of going to Carolina, they now have to travel to Philly.

The Philadelphia Eagles are the defending champions, but are somehow flying under the radar. Sure, their offense has been disjointed all season, but this is still a stellar defense with plenty of championship level talent on offense.

At home, I don’t see the Eagles getting beat, but San Fran will put up a fight. SF (+4.5)

Eagles 20-17

This matchup is one of the harder ones for me to forecast. The New England Patriots have been a great story this season, and Drake Maye deserves some of the MVP buzz, but they’ve really benefited from a soft schedule & I’m not sure they’re ready for the bright lights of playoff football.

The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, are a team that never seems to be able to get over the hump and out of the first round. The Chargers have the talent, but their offensive line is banged up and so is Justin Herbert.

I’ll take the Patriots at home. NE (-3.5)

Patriots 27-20

The Pittsburgh Steelers earned this berth in the playoffs, and I’d never discount Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, especially at home. But,

The Houston Texans are maybe the hottest team in football and they certainly have the best defense. The Texans are the scariest matchup for anyone in the AFC.

I just don’t see the Steelers pulling this off. HOU (-3.5)

Texans 20-13

My Evolving Super Bowl Pick

Philadelphia Eagles over Houston Texans