Serious Contenders

Previous: #1, lost at #18 Carolina, 31-28

I’m keeping the Rams at #1, despite the loss in Carolina. Long road trip, inclement weather & uncharacteristic Stafford turnovers. LA lost the top seed in the NFC, for now, but I think they’re still the team to beat.

Upcoming: at #25 Arizona

Previous: #2, won vs #25 Minnesota, 26-0

The Seahawks are right there with LA, but I can’t put them ahead of the Rams, yet, because I don’t trust playoff Darnold. Seattle might have the best defense in the NFC.

Upcoming: at #23 Atlanta

Previous: #6, won vs #29 NY Giants, 33-15

Patriots roll into their bye on a ten game winning streak. I don’t fully trust this young team, yet, but I’m not sure I trust any team in the AFC.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #7, won at #28 Washington, 27-26

The Broncos haven’t earned many style points in their ten game winning streak, but they keep finding ways. The defense is elite and could be enough to carry them all the way to the Super Bowl.

Upcoming: at #31 Las Vegas

Previous: #10, won at #3 Philadelphia, 24-15

What a week for the Bears. They utterly dominated the defending champs on Black Friday, then they slide into the #1 seed in the NFC on Sunday. Huge battle with their bitter rivals this week.

Upcoming: at #7 Green Bay

Previous: #3, lost vs #10 Chicago, 24-15

The Eagles are out of sorts on offense and their defense got bullied by the Chicago offensive line, but they are the defending champs. Philly has the horses to turn this around and make another run at the Super Bowl.

Upcoming: at #18 LA Chargers

Previous: #11, won at #5 Detroit, 31-24

Packers swept Detroit, but suddenly they have a challenger for NFC North supremacy they weren’t expecting. Battle for first place with Chicago in Lambeau this week.

Upcoming: vs #5 Chicago

Contenders

Previous: #12, won at #23 Cleveland, 26-8

Somehow, despite the injuries, the Niners are hanging in there in the NFC West, only a half game back. They seem to have a firm grip on at least a wildcard spot.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #13, won at #9 Indianapolis, 20-16

The Texans have surged back into the AFC playoff race behind the best defense in the NFL. I think it’s that defense that will propel them to the AFC South crown.

Upcoming: at #19 Kansas City

Previous: #14, won at #20 Pittsburgh, 26-7

Let me be clear, I think the Bills are frauds. This is not a legit Super Bowl contender, in my opinion, but they’ll probably get in to the playoffs and could pull out a road win in the Wildcard round.

Upcoming: vs #20 Cincinnati

Previous: #4, lost vs #24 Cincinnati, 32-14

The Ravens are another team I do not expect much from in January, they just seem off. That said, they have the clearest path to the postseason from the mediocre AFC North.

Upcoming: vs #21 Pittsburgh

Previous: #5, lost vs #11 Green Bay, 31-24

The Lions should be in desperation mode. The division title is probably out of reach now, and they have little margin for error in the wildcard race, but Detroit does have a team that can make it happen.

Upcoming: vs 17 Dallas

Previous: #16, won vs #26 Arizona, 20-17

The Buccaneers got a much needed victory and kept their tenuous hold on the NFC South, for another week. Tampa owns this division until someone takes it from them, but Carolina is knocking.

Upcoming: vs #30 New Orleans

Previous: #15, won at #32 Tennessee, 25-3

The Jaguars overtook Indy for first place in the AFC South. They’ve been quietly lurking all season. Their grasp may be fleeting, though, as Houston is surging.

Upcoming: vs #15 Indianapolis

Fighting for their Lives

Previous: #9, lost vs #13 Houston, 20-16

The Colts are plummeting back to earth and the landing promises to be rough. It’s not all on Daniel Jones, but I have always had reservations about Indianapolis because of him. Colts need to right the ship or they could be on the outside looking in.

Upcoming: at #15 Jacksonville

Previous: #18, won vs #1 LA Rams, 31-28

Panthers just aren’t going away. The win over LA is the signature win of Bryce Young’s career. If Tampa gives them an opening, Carolina could seize the division.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #19, won vs #8 Kansas City, 31-28

Since the trade deadline, the Cowboys have been surging. The division is probably out of reach at this point, but Dallas is poised to make some noise in the wildcard race.

Upcoming: at #12 Detroit

Previous: #17, won vs #31 Las Vegas, 31-14

I dropped the Chargers one spot, after a win, because I’m just not sure they can weather all these injuries. The latest is the biggest, possibly. Justin Herbert broke bones in his non-throwing hand and his status going forward is unclear.

Upcoming: vs #6 Philadelphia

Previous: #8, lost at #19 Dallas, 31-28

The Chiefs have squandered any margin for error they might have had. The division is lost, and they likely have to run the table to make it as a wildcard. With Mahomes, KC is never out of it, but the door is closing.

Upcoming: vs #9 Houston

Hanging by a Thread

Previous: #24, won at #4 Baltimore, 32-14

Joe Burrow returned and saved the Bengals season, for now. If Cincy was in any other division, they’d be dead in the water, but the AFC North is eminently winnable for the Bengals, but they have very little margin for error.

Upcoming: at #10 Buffalo

Previous: #20, lost vs #14 Buffalo, 26-7

The Steelers are still alive, because the AFC North is terrible, but it feels like Pittsburgh is circling the drain. I’m reasonably confident that this will be Aaron Rodgers’ swan song and could be Mike Tomlin’s as well.

Upcoming: at #11 Baltimore

Previous: #21, won vs #30 New Orleans, 21-17

The Dolphins are saving their coach’s job and lingering on the periphery of the playoff hunt. I still find it unlikely, but each win increases their chances.

Upcoming: at #26 NY Jets

Dead in the Water

Previous: #22, lost at #27 NY Jets, 27-24

Put a fork in ‘em, the Falcons are done. Heads are going to roll in Atlanta after another underachieving season.

Upcoming: vs #2 Seattle

Previous: #28, lost vs #7 Denver, 27-26

The Commanders jump four spots despite another loss, because Jayden Daniels is about to return. Washington has no hope of making the playoffs, but they could play spoiler.

Upcoming: at #28 Minnesota

Previous: #26, lost at #16 Tampa Bay, 20-17

The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention and big changes could be coming in Arizona this offseason.

Upcoming: vs #1 LA Rams

Previous: #27, won vs #22 Atlanta, 27-24

The Jets are showing some signs of growth in Aaron Glenn’s first season. Now, if they could finally complete their endless search for a franchise quarterback.

Upcoming: vs #22 Miami

Previous: #23, lost vs #12 San Francisco, 26-8

It’s a shame the Myles Garrett’s historic season is being wasted on a terrible Browns team. Cleveland will probably be searching for a new coach come January.

Upcoming: vs #32 Tennessee

Previous: #25, lost at #2 Seattle, 26-0

The Vikings made a terrible mistake letting Sam Darnold walk. Can Kevin O’Connell fix JJ McCarthy? If not, Minnesota could occupy the basement in the NFC North for years to come.

Upcoming: vs #24 Washington

Previous: #29, lost at #6 New England, 33-15

Giants season is lost and they need to protect Jaxson Dart from himself the rest of the season.

Upcoming: BYE

Previous: #30, lost at #21 Miami, 21-17

The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention, but Tyler Shough is giving New Orleans something to think about. He may have earned another season as starting quarterback, letting the Saints address other areas in the draft.

Upcoming: at #13 Tampa Bay

Previous: #31, lost at #17 LA Chargers, 31-14

The Raiders have been eliminated from playoff contention and reports suggest that Vegas is just as dysfunctional as ever. I think this could be Pete Carroll’s final season as an NFL head coach.

Upcoming: vs #4 Denver

Previous: #32, lost vs #15 Jacksonville, 25-3

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. The good news, they can probably ransom the first overall pick for a pretty sizable haul.

Upcoming: at #27 Cleveland