Bear Down the Stretch

D’Andre Swift scores vs Eagles. *Photo Credit- Matt Slocum/ Associated Press*

I was planning on writing this after next week’s game against Green Bay, but I find myself with some free time on a Sunday and I’m still buzzing about the huge win against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bears haven’t lost since the Sunday before Halloween. They just went 5-0 in November, the last two victories over division leaders, Pittsburgh and the aforementioned Eagles.

They enter December in first place in the NFC North. The last time they led the division this late in the season was 2018, and I can draw a significant parallel between that season and this one.

In 2018, I was enjoying the Bears winning after several down years, but deep down I wasn’t sure how good they actually were. They had gotten to 8-3 by the end of November, they had some impressive wins but the only one over a decent opponent was at home against the Vikings.

They opened December by losing to a below average Giants team and sat at 8-4 entering a Sunday night matchup with the 11-1 Los Angeles Rams. The Bears did not play well, offensively, in that game but the defense was utterly dominant. So dominant, in fact, that the New England Patriots studied the tape of that game prior to holding the Rams to 3 points in the Super Bowl.

The Bears win over the Rams was the game where I finally knew, this team was good. Of course, we all know how that season ended. The double doink robbed us Bears fans of seeing what that team could have accomplished.

This season, while not following the same trajectory as 2018, had a similar feeling. I was happy with the wins, but deep down I was wondering how good are the Bears, really?

They had barely escaped with wins against the lowly Raiders, Giants & Bengals without Joe Burrow. Sure, they had shutdown a high powered Cowboys offense and beat the Commanders with a fully healthy Jayden Daniels, but they also lost to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings & Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. Their only victory over a team with a winning record was over the Steelers, who were playing without Aaron Rodgers.

Then, Black Friday came. I didn’t hold out much hope. The Eagles are a juggernaut. Their offense is inconsistent, but their defense is elite. I was looking at this game as a measuring stick. I just wanted the Bears to look respectable, play a true Super Bowl contender close in their own building.

The Bears exceeded my loftiest hopes. They not only went into Philly and won, they dominated. The final score, 24-15, doesn’t tell the story of how utterly Chicago dominated this game.

The Bears offensive line bullied one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Bears rushed for 280+ yards & both D’Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai had over 100 yards rushing.

The Bears defense forced two turnovers against an offense that had the fewest turnovers in the league coming in. They shut down Saquon Barkley and really the entire Philly offense, except AJ Brown.

I’m sitting here, smiling as I write this, because I now know the Chicago Bears are a good football team. Not only do I know that we’ll be playing meaningful games in December, but we’ll be in the playoffs come January.

The Bears are now 9-3. Ten wins might get them in the playoffs, 11 surely will. A 2-3 stretch drive isn’t being overly optimistic, in fact I think it’s too pessimistic. Winning all five is probably asking too much, but why not 4-1 or 3-2?

3-2 probably wins the division, especially if at least one of the wins is against Green Bay. 4-1 certainly wins the North. Win the North and they get a home playoff game.

So what are the keys to make this happen?

Getting Healthy & Staying Healthy: The Bears defense has been decimated by injuries this season. Their top two cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson & Kyler Gordon, have missed significant time this season. Tyrique Stevenson has also been banged up. Johnson & Gordon returned against Philly & Stevenson should be back for Green Bay. The Bears are also down 4 linebackers. Tremaine Edmunds, who was having a career year, is on IR. TJ Edwards has missed multiple games, Noah Sewell missed the last two games & Ruben Hyppolite missed the Eagles game. D’Marco Jackson & Amen Ogbongbemiga have played well in relief, but getting Edwards & Edmunds back would be huge. Hopefully, the Bears can also avoid any more significant injuries, especially to…
The Offensive Line: In my opinion, this is the main reason the Bears are 9-3. This is the best offensive line Chicago has had since 1985. Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times last season, he’s on pace to suffer less than half that many this year. The Bears are also the number two rushing offense in the NFL. A case could be made for Joe Thuney, Darnell Wright, Jonah Jackson & Drew Dalman to each make the Pro Bowl. Ironically, an injury may have helped the Bears find their permanent left tackle. Theo Benedet was serviceable, but a bit of a liability in pass protection. His injury forced rookie Ozzy Trapilo into the starting lineup and he’s looked good. He’s had some hiccups, but he offers more upside as a blindside protector. If this unit can stay intact, the Bears should have a chance in every game they play.

HOLY SHIT! AS I’M WRITING THIS, THE CAROLINA PANTHERS BEAT THE LOS ANGELES RAMS AND THE BEARS ARE CURRENTLY THE NUMBER ONE SEED IN THE NFC!

Now, back to it…

Turnovers: This is the other big reason the Bears are in the position they are. The defense hasn’t been good. They’ve given up a ton of yards and have struggled to put teams away, but they’ve taken the ball away… a lot! Kevin Byard leads the NFL with 6 interceptions, Nahshon Wright is right behind him with 5 ( and also has 3 fumble recoveries) & Tremaine Edmunds has four. They’ve managed this while generating little pass rush. If they can keep this up through December, it bodes well for their chances of getting a high seed.
Caleb Williams: Williams has shown elite sack avoidance this season and the super important clutch gene, but he’s yet to put everything together. Critics like to point out his less than stellar completion percentage, but those box score critics aren’t actually watching the games. Yes, Williams has missed some throws, but he’s also been a victim of some bad luck. He’s had a lot of drops and especially in the Eagles game he had a couple of receivers lose their footing on what were actually perfectly thrown balls. Williams has been very good protecting the football and making the right reads. He’s made big time plays with his arm and his legs when the Bears have needed them most. If his accuracy improves on the simpler throws and he gets some help from his receivers his completion percentage will go up and watch out. The Bears are a dangerous team and their franchise quarterback hasn’t even reached his peak, yet.

The Rest of the Season

@ Green Bay- A couple weeks ago, I was hoping the Bears would split their two games with the Packers. Now, I want the sweep and I don’t think it’s out of the question. Green Bay has a good defense, but not as dominant as Philadelphia and the Bears just bullied the Eagles defensive line. It’s entirely fathomable that they can do similar to Green Bay. Lambeau is a tough place to win, but if the Bears offensive line can control the line of scrimmage, it’s very possible. The Packers have already lost twice at home, to Philly and to Carolina. I want the Bears to hand them number three next week.

vs Cleveland- The Browns defense, especially Myles Garrett, worries me a little bit. Their offense, however, has me salivating. Cleveland will be starting a rookie quarterback, either Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel, in what will likely be a raucous Soldier Field. I anticipate the Bears defense forcing several turnovers, creating short fields for the offense to offset a stingy Browns defense.

vs Green Bay- Yes, I want the sweep, but this is the gotta have it game against the Packers. Defend Soldier Field and they have a decent shot at winning the NFC North. Speaking of defending, the Bears defense could be as close to full strength as they’ve been all season for this game. TJ Edwards should be back by then and Tremaine Edmunds is eligible to come off IR for this one. I think the Bears could force Jordan Love into a couple turnovers in this one.

@ San Francisco- I have to admit, as the season has progressed and the Bears have gotten better and better, this game has started to concern me more. The reason is because the Niners are a gutsy team that has battled through numerous injuries to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. A west coast road trip this late in the season is tough and San Fran could be fighting for their playoff lives. It’s a winnable game for the Bears, but also a prime spot for a letdown if they beat the Packers the week before.

vs Detroit- The Lions annihilated Chicago in week two, but that was a different Bears team. Detroit still poses a threat. They have superb playmakers in Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St.Brown & Jameson Williams. They have a quarterback, Jared Goff, who can use those weapons to great effect if he’s not pressured. Add in the fact that Detroit might be very desperate for a win to make the postseason and this one could be a nail biter, if the Bears don’t have things wrapped up by then. Can Dennis Allen dial up some pressure on Goff and force a couple mistakes?

I think the Bears go 3-2 down the stretch, but I do think 4-1 is possible. I can’t, in good conscience, pick the sweep of Green Bay, but I do think we’ll get the split and that will be enough to win the NFC North.

In addition to the two games with the Bears, Green Bay also has to go to Denver and they host Baltimore. If Chicago goes 3-2, Green Bay has to go 4-1 to wrest the division from our grasp. Detroit would need to go 5-0.

3-2 is probably not good enough to secure the number one seed, because the Rams & Seahawks have identical records to Chicago and each are capable of going 5-0 down the stretch, though they do play each other. Philadelphia also remains a threat, though they do have 2 tough road games remaining and they’re a game behind Chicago and the Bears own the tiebreaker.