As we start Thanksgiving week, I thought it was a good time to recalibrate my power rankings. I wanted to make sure I had playoff contenders above teams I think are pretty much eliminated. I also wanted my rankings to better reflect how good I actually think teams are and not who has the better record.

To do this I began by ranking the teams in each conference and drawing a line between contenders and pretenders in each conference. Then, I compared each list and decided who I felt was stronger. This resulted in quite the shakeup.

I hope this will allow my rankings to continue to reflect my true thoughts on teams going forward. I’ve split the teams into three tiers, as we move forward there may be more:

Contenders

Previous: #2, won vs Tampa Bay, 34-7

The Rams have been the best team in the NFL for the last month or so & Matthew Stafford has probably surged ahead in the MVP race. The road to the Super Bowl runs through Los Angeles in the NFC.

Upcoming: at #18 Carolina

Previous: #5, won at Tennessee, 30-24

The Seahawks only blemish over the last several weeks was a road loss to the Rams, a game they had a chance to win despite four turnovers. They get a chance to avenge that loss in a week 16 Thursday night tilt, a game that could decide the number one seed in the NFC. I do have reservations about Sam Darnold, who seems to play his worst in high stakes games.

Upcoming: vs #25 Minnesota

Previous: #1, lost at Dallas, 24-21

The Eagles have the defense to repeat, but Jalen Hurts and the offense has been wildly inconsistent. At their offensive best, they can beat anyone, but I think home field advantage would be huge for them. Right now, I can’t see them beating LA or Seattle on the road.

Upcoming: vs #10 Chicago

Previous: #7, won vs NY Jets, 23-10

After a 1-5 start where they often looked listless, the Ravens have stormed back to 6-5 and the lead in the AFC North. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, they’re once again my pick to emerge from the AFC, though they’ll likely have to win a couple road games in the playoffs to do it.

Upcoming: vs #24 Cincinnati

Previous: #11, won vs NY Giants, 34-27

Even though the Lions are currently third in the NFC North, I think they’ll eventually emerge with the division crown. They’re the most complete team in the division & Jahmyr Gibbs is probably the most explosive player in the NFC. I don’t think they’re on the same level as the top three teams in the conference, but they have the potential to get there.

Upcoming: vs #11 Green Bay

Previous: #3, won at Cincinnati, 26-20

I believe in the Patriots. Drake Maye is firmly in the MVP conversation & Mike Vrabel is the front runner for Coach of the Year, but they still have a lot to prove before I can comfortably pick them to emerge from the AFC. Remember, this was a four win team a year ago.

Upcoming: vs #29 NY Giants

Previous: #6, BYE

The Broncos have a championship level defense, but I’ve got no confidence in Bo Nix and this offense. They have a stranglehold on the AFC West and should end the Chiefs decade long reign in the division. Getting the number one seed would be huge for their Super Bowl chances.

Upcoming: at #28 Washington

Previous: #8, won vs Indianapolis, 23-20

The Chiefs have no margin for error as we approach December. They’re third in the AFC West, three games behind the Broncos & they’ve already lost to Denver & the Chargers. They’re still on the outside looking in for the AFC Playoff picture, but Patrick Mahomes cannot be counted out.

Upcoming: at #19 Dallas

Previous: #4, lost at Kansas City, 23-20

The Colts have fallen back to the pack after dominating the first two months of the season. Their lead in the AFC South has shrunk to one game over Jacksonville with Houston another game back. If Jonathan Taylor can continue his MVP level season, the Colts should secure at least a playoff berth.

Upcoming: vs #13 Houston

Previous: #9, won vs Pittsburgh, 31-28

The Bears are surprisingly alone atop the NFC North standings and riding a four game winning streak. The next two games are tough road tilts and the final four games aren’t much easier. I think Caleb Williams can lead them to the playoffs, but they’ll fall short of the division crown.

Upcoming: at #3 Philadelphia

Previous: #12, won vs Minnesota, 23-6

The Packers defense is very good & they have the weapons on offense, but I’m just not sure Jordan Love has it. He’s the new version of Kirk Cousins, in my opinion, he’ll put up big numbers, fool you into thinking he’s elite, but then lays an egg when you need him most. Green Bay should make the playoffs & they could win the division, but I expect an early exit.

Upcoming: at #5 Detroit

Previous: #16, won vs Carolina, 20-9

The 49ers have had a rash of injuries this year, playing long stretches without their QB1, they’ve lost their top pass rushers & their All-World linebacker. They’ve got no true number one receiver, but they keep winning. The reason? Christian McCaffrey is once again playing at an MVP level.

Upcoming: at #23 Cleveland

Previous: #17, won vs Buffalo, 23-19

After an 0-3 start, the Texans have clawed their way back into contention in the AFC & the AFC South division. They’ve managed this with CJ Stroud missing multiple games due to a concussion. Houston’s defense is playing at a championship level right now.

Upcoming: at #9 Indianapolis

Previous: #10, lost at Houston, 23-19

I’ve been out on the Bills for quite awhile now. I’ve certainly got them ranked much lower than everyone else, but I’ll stick to my guns. Buffalo is NOT a Super Bowl contender. Josh Allen will probably will this team to the playoffs and maybe advance a round, but the lack of complimentary talent and suspect coaching will ultimately doom them.

Upcoming: at #20 Pittsburgh

Previous: #18, won at Arizona, 27-24

The Jaguars suddenly find themselves just a game back in the AFC South, with Houston lurking. I’m not sure Trevor Lawrence can push them into the postseason, though. Their defense is opportunistic and the running game is decent, but they’re down a few receivers and I’m just not a true believer, yet.

Upcoming: at #32 Tennessee

Previous: #13, lost at LA Rams, 34-7

The rash of injuries finally caught up with the Buccaneers after a hot start to the season. The latest injury, to Baker Mayfield, may be enough to break their hold on the NFC South crown.

Upcoming: vs #26 Arizona

Previous: #14, BYE

The Chargers offensive line has been decimated by injuries & the last we saw them Justin Herbert was being beat up. LA has the talent to make the postseason, but I wonder if the lack of protection will doom them.

Upcoming: vs #31 Las Vegas

Previous: #19, lost at San Francisco, 20-9

The Panthers have been a bit inconsistent, looking great for a couple games, then laying an egg. Tampa’s injury issues, however, have opened the door for Bryce Young to lead this team into the postseason.

Upcoming: vs #1 LA Rams

Previous: #21, won vs Philadelphia, 24-21

The Cowboys have gotten themselves back into the playoff conversation, but they’ve still got an uphill climb to get there. If they do, Dak Prescott will surely be mentioned in MVP conversations.

Upcoming: vs #8 Kansas City

Previous: #15, lost at Chicago, 31-28

The Steelers were gifted with a massive head start to win the AFC North & they’ve squandered it. I’m not sure Aaron Rodgers has enough juice left to get them into the playoffs at this point. The streak of winning records is in dire jeopardy.

Upcoming: vs #14 Buffalo

On the Fringe

Previous: #20, BYE

The Dolphins have shown some life lately & may be saving Mike McDaniel’s job. They’ve also gotten themselves into the fringe of contention, though it seems highly unlikely that Tua Tagovailoa can get them there. For now, though, they linger.

Upcoming: vs #30 New Orleans

Previous: #24, won at New Orleans, 24-10

The Falcons are still alive simply because Tampa Bay is faltering. Make no mistake, I don’t think Kirk Cousins can rally the most underachieving team in the NFL to make a run at the postseason.

Upcoming: at #27 NY Jets

Previous: #31, won at Las Vegas, 24-10

The Browns have the slightest of chances only because the NFC North hasn’t been good and the Myles Garrett led defense is scary. Playoffs are probably out of reach, but Garrett’s pursuit of the single season sack record will be fun to watch.

Upcoming: vs #12 San Francisco

Previous: lost vs New England, 26-20

Like Cleveland, the Bengals have slim hopes because of the AFC North & because Joe Burrow may return soon. The defense, however, is this team’s Achilles heel. They could’ve had a better chance to survive Burrow’s absence but that defense is abysmal.

Upcoming: at #4 Baltimore

Previous: #22, lost at Green Bay, 23-6

The Vikings remain on the fringe, barely. They have a JJ McCarthy problem, though. His play has been bad enough to completely nullify any hope they might have remaining.

Upcoming: at #2 Seattle

Put a Fork in ‘Em

Previous: lost vs Jacksonville, 27-24

The Cardinals have played most games close this season, and they’ve been much better offensively without Kyler Murray. The questions that need to be answered down the stretch are; do they move on from Murray. & do they fire head coach Jonathan Gannon?

Upcoming: at #16 Tampa Bay

Previous: #25, lost at Baltimore, 23-10

The Jets have been dead for weeks now, they’re just playing out the string. Justin Fields has been benched and New York fans should be looking ahead to the draft to find their next quarterback.

Upcoming: vs #22 Atlanta

Previous: #27, BYE

The Commanders have been on a downward spiral since losing to Chicago in Week 6. Jayden Daniels could return before the end of the season, but should he? This season is lost, no need to risk the franchise quarterback.

Upcoming: vs #7 Denver

Previous: #28, lost at Detroit, 34-27

The Giants are the first team to be officially eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve fired their head coach and now their defensive coordinator. At least they can be confident knowing they probably have their quarterback in Jaxson Dart.

Upcoming: at #6 New England

Previous: #30, lost vs Atlanta, 24-10

Outside of Tennessee, the Saints might be the least talented team in the NFL, but they’ve played hard for most of the season. The remainder of the season is about determining if Tyler Shough is the answer or if they need to use a high draft pick on a quarterback.

Upcoming: at #21 Miami

Previous: #29, lost vs Cleveland, 24-10

The Raiders are a mess and only a 1 win team keeps them out of #32. Geno Smith has been an absolute disaster & it’s fair to wonder if this will be Pete Carroll’s final season as an NFL head coach.

Upcoming: at #17 LA Chargers

Previous: #32, lost vs Seattle, 30-24

The Titans are just playing out the string. Their focus should be on finding the right coach to maximize the potential of Cam Ward.

Upcoming: vs #15 Jacksonville