We’re in the home stretch towards the NFL Draft, one of my favorite weeks of the year. Hope springs eternal for all 32 NFL fan bases. For this mock, I’m analyzing the options for each pick. There are no trades, but I do speculate on possible moves.

Barring any major shake ups, this will be my final first round mock until draft week. Here we go:

1. CAROLINA PANTHERS- This is going to be a QB, no question, the only question is which one. In my opinion, I think it’s between CJ Stroud & Bryce Young, but for the sake of this exercise there’s also a non-zero chance it could be Anthony Richardson.

Panthers paid a premium to move up to this spot, they cannot afford to miss. Young has tested off the charts & he’s the most accomplished of the QBs, but his slight stature is a risk. Richardson has tremendous upside, but he’s raw. That’s why I think the pick will be:

2. HOUSTON TEXANS- The choice here is between the two QBs Carolina passed over, in this case Bryce Young & Anthony Richardson and the best player in the draft, Alabama edge rusher, Will Anderson.

I toyed with the idea of Houston passing on a QB here and waiting for their pick at #12, but I don’t think they can afford that risk. So, the pick comes down to the QBs. I think it’ll be:

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS- For Arizona, the question comes down to the two best defensive players or trading back for more draft capital.

Unless a team in the top ten comes calling, trying to jump ahead of Indianapolis, I think the Cardinals will stay put. I don’t think they’ll be willing to move too far down the board.

The choice then becomes Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. Carter is immensely talented, but questions about his work ethic and his off field issues make this pick easy.

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- The general consensus is that Indy will pick a QB, but they haven’t been very aggressive in securing one. They allowed Carolina to leap frog them and are now relegated to the third QB off the board. With Arizona directly in front of them, there’s a chance they get jumped again. Would they be satisfied with the fourth QB off the board?

To me, it depends on the QB. If it’s Anthony Richardson, I think they’ll take him. He fits the athletic profile that new head coach, Shane Steichen, had with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.

If Will Levis is the one left, I’m not so sure the Colts don’t just roll with Gardner Minshew this season with an eye to next year’s draft when the QBs are more elite.

So, I think Indy’s choice is between Richardson, Levis and the top OT in the draft, Paris Johnson Jr, in my opinion. As the board has fallen, thus far, the pick is easy:

5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Seattle is a bit of a wildcard early in this draft. If one of Stroud, Young or Richardson slips past Indy, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks pounce.

If Arizona trades out of #3 and QBs go 1-4, then Will Anderson would be a no brainer.

Neither of those scenarios happens in this mock, so Seattle chooses between Jalen Carter & Tyree Wilson. The questions surrounding Carter cause him to slip further:

6. DETROIT LIONS- Detroit might consider Richardson if he’s still on the board. I actually think this would be a perfect landing spot for him, Jared Goff could hold down the fort, even lead a playoff drive, while Richardson acclimates to the NFL.

I think edge rusher could be a possibility, if Anderson or Wilson are still available, but they’re not in this mock.

So, it comes down to Jalen Carter and the top CB, Christian Gonzalez. Carter would be a beast for the Lions and totally transform their defense, but those questions about his character linger. I don’t see Dan Campbell wanting anyone with a questionable work ethic. The pick:

7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Vegas could sniff around a QB, but I don’t think they’ll move up for one. Will Levis is the only one I think will slip past the top 5.

Conversely, I think the Raiders are sitting in the sweet spot for a team to move up for that fourth QB.

Corner could be an option, Gonzalez, if he’s there, or Devon Witherspoon. Or, the Raiders could take the top OT in the draft, Paris Johnson Jr.

With Gonzalez off the board, I think the pick will be:

8. ATLANTA FALCONS- I just don’t get the sense that Atlanta is considering a QB here, I suppose things could change depending on the board, but I don’t see it.

Tyree Wilson would be the pick if he’s available, but he’s not in this mock. Same for Christian Gonzalez.

For me, the pick comes down to Jalen Carter & Devon Witherspoon. The slide stops in his home state:

9. CHICAGO BEARS- Chicago traded down from #1 already, but they might not be done. With Levis still on the board, they’re open for business.

If Tyree Wilson is somehow still on the board, I think he’s easily the pick. He’s not in this case.

Jalen Carter would warrant some consideration if he’s there. He’s not, so it’s not a consideration at all.

I don’t think the Bears will take a skill position player here, so I think their choice will come down to top edge rusher, Myles Murphy, top CB, Devon Witherspoon or top OT, Paris Johnson Jr or Broderick Jones.

I think the pick will be:

10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Philly is apparently the team that told Jalen Carter they’d take him if he’s there, but he’s not so let’s shift our focus elsewhere.

With Howie Roseman at the wheel, you can never count out the Eagles trading back, but there’s no trades in this mock.

I think the Eagles choice comes down to edge rusher, cornerback and Texas RB Bijan Robinson.

I wouldn’t be surprised by Robinson, he’s definitely a top ten talent, but RB isn’t a premium position and Philly doesn’t draft them in the first round.

Either Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness would fit on the Eagles defense, but I think the best player available is:

11. TENNESSEE TITANS- The word is Tennessee aggressively pursued the #1 pick, so with Will Levis still on the board, there’s a possibility they could go QB.

I think they’ll also consider Northwestern OT, Peter Skoronski, who may end up kicking inside to guard, or the top WR on their board.

The Titans drafted Malik Willis last year, while he’s not ready to be the starter yet he still possesses intriguing potential. I don’t think Tennessee will see Levis as an upgrade, so I think they’ll go:

12. HOUSTON TEXANS– After taking their franchise QB earlier, Houston could switch to defense and take either Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness, or they could give their new QB a true number one WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

If Carolina opts for either Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson, and Houston gets CJ Stroud, I’d say JSN is a slam dunk pick. Even without Stroud, I like the pick:

13. NEW YORK JETS- Reports are stating that Green Bay is backing off their insistence on this pick being part of the package for Aaron Rodgers, but until a deal gets done, I’m not completely dismissing the idea.

If the Jets keep this pick, I think their choices come down to the top offensive lineman left, the top edge rusher left or the top safety in the entire draft, Brian Branch.

I think #13 is too high for Branch. Edge rushers, Lukas Van Ness & Myles Murphy are intriguing, but ultimately I think the Jets bigger needs lie elsewhere. With Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones & Peter Skoronski off the board, Darnell Wright is the next OT on the board.

Most draft analysts have him as a late first, early second round guy, but he’s been climbing draft boards lately, so:

14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- I think New England will decide between cornerback, edge rusher & wide receiver.

Ultimately, I don’t see Belichick drafting a receiver early. CB is possible, but this guy’s name just screams Patriots’ defense:

15. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Green Bay’s first post-Aaron Rodgers draft (maybe?) could start with giving Jordan Love more weapons or fixing an aging defense.

Notre Dame TE, Michael Mayer, has been a popular mock draft target for the Packers, but I’m not on board. I think they’ll draft a TE, but not in the first round.

Alabama safety, Brian Branch, would fill a need, but I think it’s still a bit early for him.

In the end, I think Green Bay goes with a pass rusher:

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS- Washington is a candidate to move up for a QB. With Will Levis still on the board, I think it’s a consideration.

Minnesota IOL, John Michael Schmitz, is the best center in the draft. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him go in the first round, but #16 seems really high.

I think the Commanders are going to give Sam Howell a real chance to take hold of the QB spot, so they’ll take the top CB here:

17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- I think Pittsburgh’s choices come down to defensive line, secondary or offensive line. I’m not sure the value is there for an offensive lineman, leaving DL & DB.

In both cases, the Steelers have a close connection. DL will be between Bryan Bresee and Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey. DB comes down to Deonte Banks or son of a Steelers’ legend, Joey Porter Jr.

Porter is off the board, so I think Pittsburgh stays close to home and takes the fast rising IDL:

18. DETROIT LIONS- Detroit passed over Will Levis with their first pick, but they have to consider him here.

I think TE is possible, but it’s still early and the TE class is pretty deep.

I think the Lions will bolster their defensive line, with either Clemson’s Bryan Bresee or Georgia’s Nolan Smith. The pick is:

19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Tampa is another potential landing spot for Will Levis, either by trading up or staying put.

I also think they’ll consider Georgia edge, Nolan Smith and Maryland corner, Deonte Banks.

I think they’ll opt for the freak athleticism of:

20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Seattle will pass, again, on a second chance at Levis. I don’t think he represents the upgrade over Geno Smith and Drew Lock that warrants a first round pick.

The Seahawks will look closely at Minnesota center, John Michael Schmitz and Alabama safety, Brian Branch, but ultimately they’ll take the best WR on their board:

21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- I feel like the Chargers will take an offensive weapon here. Either USC WR, Jordan Addison, Texas RB, Bijan Robinson or Notre Dame TE, Michael Mayer.

If LA trades Austin Ekeler, I think Robinson will be the choice. They could still take him, regardless.

They don’t really have a great TE on the roster, so they may go there.

Ultimately, though, I think they go with an eventual replacement for Keenan Allen:

22. BALTIMORE RAVENS- With the Lamar Jackson situation unresolved, Baltimore has to consider Will Levis here. Perhaps they trade Jackson and move further up the board (Indy?).

I do think Jackson plays in Baltimore this season, so they’ll pass on Levis.

They’ve needed a receiver forever, so they’ll look, but the mini run on them will make them pivot to the secondary:

23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Minnesota’s Achilles heel was their defense last season, so they should look on that side. There are corners and edge rushers available that are worthy of this spot.

The thing is, Kirk Cousins is 34 years old and he can become a free agent after this season. The Vikings won’t move up for a QB, but if one falls in their lap:

24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Jacksonville is one of the toughest teams to pick for. There’s so many directions I think the Jaguars could go.

Positional value, overall value and team needs lead me to believe this pick will either be in the secondary or Ohio State offensive tackle, Dawand Jones, who would fill the void left by Jawaan Taylor.

I think Jacksonville takes the best safety in the class:

25. NEW YORK GIANTS- I think the Giants will weigh the options between wide receiver, offensive line and defensive back.

I think Florida IOL, O’Cyrus Torrence, is a real possibility, but the Giants receiving corps was really bad last season and the addition of Darren Waller still leaves it wanting.

Zay Flowers or Jalin Hyatt?

26. DALLAS COWBOYS- I think Dallas will add an offensive skill position with this pick. It could be a TE to replace Dalton Schultz, Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid. It could be a speedy running mate for Cee Dee Lamb, Jalin Hyatt.

In all honesty, if this guy is still on the board, it’s a slam dunk. I wouldn’t rule out the Cowboys trading up for him:

27. BUFFALO BILLS- Buffalo would seriously consider Robinson if he made it past Dallas, he won’t. They may consider Alabama RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, though.

Offensive line is the other consideration. Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison or Ohio State’s Dawand Jones merit consideration.

I think the Bills go guard, though:

28. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Dawand Jones makes a lot of sense, if Cincy moves on from Jonah Williams.

It never hurts to have more DBs, so there’s a chance the Bengals go secondary, but I think adding the top TE in a deep class to an already dangerous offense would make them damn near unstoppable:

29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- New Orleans could look at Notre Dame TE, Michael Mayer, but Dennis Allen is a defensive coach, so I think they’ll go that route.

The Saints haven’t had the best track record with first round edge rushers, so I think they’ll take a DL that can play inside or outside. One of my favorite players in the draft:

30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Philly went corner earlier, so I don’t see them going back to the secondary. RB could be an option if either Robinson or Gibbs are on the board, they’re not.

As I stated earlier, you can never rule out a Philly trade back. I can really see a team moving up for that extra year of control on Tennessee QB, Hendon Hooker.

Staying put, I think the Eagles add a pass rusher:

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- KC could add a pass rusher to replace Frank Clark. They could add another OT or address the secondary.

Instead, I think they’ll add the speed threat to their receiving corps they haven’t had since Tyreek Hill departed. This addition will make the Chiefs offense even scarier: