Here we are, on the cusp of free agency frenzy, and I’m doing another mock draft that I swore I wouldn’t do. The problem is, my last mock was kind of a knee jerk reaction to the Jalen Carter news. I’ve revised my thinking on how far he falls down the board.

Since publishing Mock Draft 2.3, there has also been some QB news. Derek Carr is now a Saint, and getting PAID! Speaking of getting paid, Geno Smith got paid by Seattle. Still some QB dominoes to fall, but I don’t think they’re going to be the major, earth shattering moves that most want to talk about.

Aaron Rodgers will still be a Packer. Lamar Jackson will still be in Baltimore. I think the Raiders will sign Jimmy G. I think Tampa Bay will land Baker Mayfield. I think, to the dismay of Jets fans, that Zach Wilson will get one more chance, because they don’t really have any other options.

I’ve also clarified my thoughts on what happens with the number one overall pick. I’ve known from the end of the 2022 regular season that Chicago would trade the pick, the popular trade partner has been Indianapolis, but I don’t think Indy will give up the capital the Bears want, because at 4 their guaranteed a QB, and they all shined at the combine.

No, I think it’s Carolina that’s desperate enough to give up the haul Ryan Poles wants, specifically 3 firsts; this year’s and the next two. They have to make a move, they won’t get one at number nine. Moving to three, in a trade with Arizona, would be cheaper but still pricey, but if you’re going to spend why not go all in and get YOUR guy?

With all that said, let’s kick this pig!

*TRADE*

Carolina receives pick #1, Chicago receives picks #9 & 39, Carolina’s first & second round picks in 2024 & their first round pick in 2025.

1. CAROLINA PANTHERS- CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State: Like I said, go get your guy. I just think Stroud is new HC Frank Reich’s guy. The total package. Size, athleticism, accuracy, strong arm and results.

2. HOUSTON TEXANS- Bryce Young, QB, Alabama: Young would be the slam dunk first overall pick if he was five inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. He’s smaller, but he’s shown what he can do on the field.

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama: Cardinals explore trading back, but ultimately decide to stay put and add a generational pass rusher.

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Will Levis, QB, Kentucky: GM Chris Ballard has said Indy is fine staying at 4, I think this is why. I think they’ve had their eye on Levis for awhile.

5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech: Seattle re-signed Geno Smith, but that doesn’t necessarily take them out of the QB market, and they could be a trade back target for QB needy teams like Tennessee or Tampa Bay, but I think they’ll stay put and take a super long pass rusher with a very high ceiling.

6. DETROIT LIONS- Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia: Detroit has a decision here. On one hand, I think Detroit is a perfect landing spot for Anthony Richardson, a QB with all the tools that needs some seasoning. With Jared Goff on board, there would be no rush to push him on the field. However, Carter could transform this defense and make Detroit a playoff team and fringe contender in a weak NFC.

7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida: Yes, I think Vegas signs Jimmy G in free agency, but he’s not a long term solution. He just allows the Raiders to bring a rookie along slowly while still being competitive. As I said before, Richardson has tremendous potential as the most athletically gifted QB in this draft.

8. ATLANTA FALCONS- Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa: Interestingly there hasn’t been a whole lot of buzz connecting Atlanta to any QBs. They’re an under the radar team, maybe they’ll be the one to give Carson Wentz a fourth chance? Here they take a pass rusher with a ton of untapped potential.

9. CHICAGO BEARS- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State: Chicago extracted a king’s ransom from Carolina to move down into the perfect spot to land the WR1 of this class. An injury riddled 2022 season had pushed JSN down draft boards, but the NFL Combine sends him skyrocketing back up. This is the guy Justin Fields needs to take that next step.

10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois: Philly should still be the favorite in the NFC this year, but they’re losing some key pieces to free agency, one of those is CB James Bradberry. Witherspoon could step right into that vacancy.

11. TENNESSEE TITANS- Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern: Tennessee is a team in transition. Will Ryan Tannehill be back? Will they actually move Derrick Henry? Plenty of questions to answer. They’ll go with the top OL in the draft, Skoronski may kick inside to guard because of his shorter arms, but he’s the best blocker in the draft.

12. HOUSTON TEXANS- Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU: Houston got their QB1 earlier, now they get him a WR1 to grow with.

13. NEW YORK JETS- Paris Johnson Jr, OT, Ohio State: Unless the Jets land Aaron Rodgers, which they won’t (sidebar: I’m sick of the yearly Aaron Rodgers drama, he’ll stay in GB, they don’t have the balls to trade him and he just wants the attention, he doesn’t want to prove his legacy elsewhere), I f do not see the Jets replacing Zach Wilson with a mid-level guy. Wilson is entering his third season, yes he’s been bad, but the potential is still there. NY uses this pick to improve the offensive line.

14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon: Patriots need pass catchers for Mac Jones, but I can’t seen Belichick using a first round pick on one. Defense is his game, always has been. Pass defense will be the way New England goes.

15. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Brian Branch, S, Alabama: The Packers need for receivers isn’t as acute as some think. Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs flashed enough as rookies for GB to have confidence there. TE is possible, but I think only in a trade down. I couldn’t find a trade partner for them, so they stay here and take a perfect fit for the back end of their defense.

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS- Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State: Washington is one of those fringe QB needy teams. Pretty much out of range of a true franchise caliber QB, they have a young QB, Sam Howell, who may prove to be a decent starter. Here, they’ll go with the top corner on the board.

17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pittsburgh: I think Kancey will go higher than 17th, but I couldn’t find a fit earlier. The comparisons to Aaron Donald are legit, same school, similar size and athleticism and motor. I’m not saying Kancey is Donald 2.0, but the traits are there.

18. DETROIT LIONS- Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland: I stated previously that I think Detroit could be a playoff team with some tweaks. Those tweaks are almost all on the defensive side. They got the game wrecker for their front end earlier, now they strengthen the back end.

19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson: Bresee should go higher, but again I couldn’t find a fit for an IDL. Tampa needs a QB, but I think they’ll grab a veteran with some upside like Baker Mayfield. It’s time Tampa got younger and cheaper everywhere.

*TRADE*

Buffalo receives pick #20, Seattle receives picks #27 & 59.

20. BUFFALO BILLS- Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma: Buffalo moves up to grab the top offensive lineman on the board.

21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah: In a deep TE class, Kincaid may be the best of them. Justin Herbert could use a reliable security blanket at TE.

22. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia: WR is possible, but an athletic freak like Smith seems like a Ravens type player.

23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson: Murphy has been usurped in recent weeks by other edge rushers, but Minnesota will be happy to add him to their lackluster defense.

24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia: Jags could lose Jawaan Taylor in free agency, they draft his replacement.

25. NEW YORK GIANTS- Jordan Addison, WR, USC: Giants have one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL, adding one of the most complete WR in the class is a must.

26. DALLAS COWBOYS- Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame: Dalton Schultz is a free agent, even if he ultimately re-signs, Dallas needs more pass catchers.

27. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- Mazi Smith, IDL, Michigan: Seattle continues to rebuild its defense after trading back.

28. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State: Bengals get a massive, MASSIVE, protector for Joe Burrow.

29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE, Northwestern: Athletic freak of a pass rusher finds himself in the first round after shooting up draft boards.

30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas: This Eagles offense will be scary, and virtually unstoppable if they add the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College: Chiefs just won a Super Bowl with a patchwork group of receivers. Adding a dynamic home run threat will only make them scarier.