With the regular season over, I thought I’d take a quick look at the teams that didn’t make the playoffs, where I think they are, what I think they need to do, in some cases who they should target.
I’ll go division by division starting with the AFC East:
MIAMI DOLPHINS- Totally surprised by the firing of Brian Flores as head coach. Apparently he lost a power struggle with the GM, in my opinion Dolphins ownership made the wrong call.
I’m wondering whether the rift had anything to do with their pursuit of Deshaun Watson? I think it would be a mistake to trade for Watson and all his baggage, especially since Tua showed some impressive growth down the stretch.
The roster is decent, capable of being a playoff team next year with a few tweaks. I like Miami to target one of the higher end RBs in free agency, as well as a second tier WR.
Top Free Agent Target: James Conner, RB
NEW YORK JETS- Rough first year for head coach Robert Saleh and QB Zach Wilson, but I think the Jets are on the right track.
They need to be patient and not do the totally Jets thing of overpaying in free agency for what are essentially luxury items for a rebuilding team.
Allen Robinson would be a reasonably priced WR that would help Wilson’s development, unless, of course, he’d prefer a more immediate contender.
BALTIMORE RAVENS- If John Harbaugh wasn’t the safest head coach south of New England, he might be on the hot seat for his decision to go for 2 instead of a tie against both Pittsburgh and Green Bay, both games they ultimately lost which ultimately cost them a playoff berth. Personally, I loved the move, especially against Pittsburgh, but a coach is always second guessed when a risk fails.
Honestly, this season might have been one of Harbaugh’s best coaching jobs. The Ravens lost their top 2 RBs before the season even started, and also Marcus Peters. Lamar Jackson missed the last month plus and Baltimore still came within a whisper of the playoffs.
As long as at least one of the RBs are ready to go for the start of next season, I don’t think Baltimore needs to make any major moves.
Top Free Agent Target: Akiem Hicks, DL
CLEVELAND BROWNS- The Browns were this season’s biggest disappointment, for me anyway, since I picked them to make the Super Bowl.
They need to make a decision on an extension for Baker Mayfield. I wouldn’t pay him franchise QB money, which is what it would take to retain him. I don’t think he’s worth it, but he’s a starting caliber QB and that’s the price of doing business in the NFL. Cleveland would be better served in the long run by letting him walk, kicking the tires on possible trades and keeping a sharp eye on the college ranks.
For next season, I like the Browns to target a top tier WR, Davante Adams might not be available, Chris Godwin is coming off an ACL tear and likely will miss half the season, but Allen Robinson would be a nice fit too.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- The Colts are a very good team with a very big problem. Carson Wentz is a bottom tier starter, at best.
This is a playoff team with a better QB, a Super Bowl contender with the right one. Can they find one?
Top Free Agent Target: Mike Williams, WR
HOUSTON TEXANS- The 2021 season started as a dumpster fire in Houston, it ended as something not quite that bad. The Deshaun Watson situation is still a mess and needs to be resolved one way or another. They need to figure out if Davis Mills is the future and if so, give him the reins.
This is maybe the least talented roster in the NFL. They should only be bargain shopping in free agency and stockpiling younger players and draft picks. The playoffs are still out of the question next season.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- The Jags were a clown show most of the season, but a lot of that relates to Urban Meyer. He’s gone, but Jacksonville needs to get this right this time. I like Doug Pedersen or Brian Daboll. Both have a track record of helping a young QB grow.
The Jaguars should be all about Trevor Lawrence and giving him everything he needs to succeed. They have cap space, so a couple splash moves in free agency isn’t out of the question.
Top Free Agent Target: Re-signing Cam Robinson, OT
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- LA challenges Cleveland for most disappointing, at least LA had a shot at the playoffs in Week 18. I’m scratching my head trying to figure out how they even found themselves in that position.
In my view, the Chargers have everything needed to be a contender, what went wrong I have no idea.
Top Free Agent Target: Nate Solder, OT
DENVER BRONCOS- Broncos are in a similar situation as Indianapolis, a roster close to contention, held back by subpar QB play.
First things first, though, they have to find a new coach. Denver has always had different parameters for a head coach than most teams, so it’s difficult to predict where they might turn. I like the idea of Nathaniel Hackett if they want to try to pry Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay.
I could see them bringing back Von Miller in free agency, especially if they’re able to land Rodgers.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Well, I guess they’ll have a new name come February. Beyond that, not sure what they’ll do.
They could use help everywhere, but they don’t have any gaping holes. A QB upgrade would be nice, but I’m not sure it’s available on the open market. I see them being minor players in free agency, picking up bits and pieces at discount prices.
Top Free Agent Target: Re-signing Brandon Scherff, OT
NEW YORK GIANTS- The Giants cleaned house with the firing of Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman’s retirement. They also need to make a decision on QB Daniel Jones.
I have an interesting idea for NY, bringing in Brian Daboll as head coach and signing Mitchell Trubisky to compete with Jones. Daboll worked with Trubisky this year, he knows his offense and he’d not only push Jones, but likely supplant him as starter.
Added bonus, after four years in Chicago, Trubisky knows how to handle a hostile press and fan base.
CHICAGO BEARS- Da’ Bears also cleaned house in the front office and head coach. They need a GM in place before making a final decision on coach.
Chicago has some attractiveness with Justin Fields in place as QB. As a fan, I really like the idea of Brian Flores or Todd Bowles as head coach.
Top Free Agent Target: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
DETROIT LIONS- The Lions flirted with being the first 0-17 team in NFL history, they ultimately showed some fight and improvement under first year coach Dan Campbell.
Outside Houston, Detroit has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL. Jared Goff is no franchise QB, but they may be able to remedy that in the draft.
I normally mock lesser teams for making a big splash in free agency, but I think Detroit is one team that can afford to pay Chris Godwin and have him miss half the season recovering from his torn ACL.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Sean Payton did one of his better coaching jobs this season, having to use 4 starting QBs, not having Michael Thomas all season and Alvin Kamara missing some time.
The defense is top notch, they have pieces on offense, they need to decide if Jameis Winston will recover fully from his torn ACL for next season. If so, they can do worse than bringing him back.
Top Free Agent Target: Re-signing Terron Armstead, if possible.
ATLANTA FALCONS- The Falcons are a team in limbo, not quite good enough to contend, not bad enough to tear it down and rebuild.
They’re bringing back Matt Ryan at QB, he’s a better than average option at this point in his career. The biggest question mark is the status of Calvin Ridley. Should he return and return to form, Ryan should have sufficient weapons to work with.
The defensive side of the ball should still be Atlanta’s focus.
Top Free Agent Target: Haason Reddick, EDGE
CAROLINA PANTHERS- 2022 will be a make or break season for head coach Matt Rhule. I don’t think he’s a bad coach, but his offense has underwhelmed. The fragility of Christian McCaffery hasn’t helped. Nor has subpar QB play. They gave up assets for Sam Darnold so they might be stuck with him for next season.
In desperation, I can see Carolina overpaying for a WR like Zay Jones.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- As of now, Pete Carroll is still head coach and Russell Wilson is still their QB, I don’t see this lasting into next season.
Seattle is about to embark on a rebuild, with or without both Carroll and Wilson. As the oldest coach in the league, does Carroll have it in him? Does Russ have the patience to waste his prime on a rebuild?
The defense could use some work, but most importantly they need to better protect Wilson.
Top Free Agent Target: Terron Armstead, OT
Now, for my playoff predictions. I picked Cleveland to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, that’s obviously out. Until beaten, the AFC still runs through Kansas City, but I like Tennessee to rise up with the return of Derrick Henry.
In the NFC, I picked Tampa Bay, I’ll stick with that only because Brady is the only QB I trust to win in Green Bay and I cannot pick the Packers.
I’ll pick Tampa Bay to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
As for this weekend’s Wild Card games:
BENGALS 31 RAIDERS 27
BILLS 19 PATRIOTS 14
BUCCANEERS 27 EAGLES 17
49ERS 24 COWBOYS 20
CHIEFS 42 STEELERS 17
RAMS 38 CARDINALS 35