Search for Big Bear

Now that we’re two weeks into the Chicago Bears coaching search, and now that they’ve got a General Manager in place, the list has narrowed and so have my preferences.

As far as we know, there’s 3 finalists. I tend to believe there may be more that we haven’t heard about, at least I hope so.

Here’s my thoughts:

DAN QUINN- One of the three known finalists. Of the three, he’s my preference of the three. Two weeks ago, I wanted no part of Quinn, but I’ve warmed to him.

He got Atlanta to a Super Bowl in his second season, and should have won it if not for that epic meltdown. His run with the Falcons was never the same after that. There has to be hope that he learned from the mistakes made.

He did a phenomenal job with Dallas’ defense this year and it’s said he already has a killer staff lined up. Other than one other candidate, I am leaning toward a defensive minded head coach. One that won’t insist on calling offensive plays. One that will be more likely to focus on the big picture.

Right now, that guy is Quinn.

MATT EBERFLUS- Another of the known finalists. I know little of Eberflus, except he’s had really good defenses in Indianapolis.

I wouldn’t be completely opposed to hiring Eberflus, but it would all hinge on who he brings in to run the offense.

Based solely on the individual, I prefer Quinn to Eberflus because of experience as a head coach.

JIM CALDWELL- The third of the 3 known finalists, and the only one with an offensive background.

I like Caldwell, and I think he got railroaded by Detroit. I believe he would be a steady hand, and wouldn’t stubbornly stick to his offensive plans when they don’t work out. His ego won’t get in the way of progress.

However, I’m not wild about his age and the fact he’s been out of football for a few years. I don’t like the idea of Bill Polian pushing him on the Bears because of past relationships.

I don’t hate Caldwell, but I wouldn’t be terribly excited by his hiring. Feels like John Fox 2.0 to me.

BRIAN DABOLL- While he’s not one of the known finalists, Daboll is at the top of my wish list.

I stated earlier that I prefer a defensive minded head coach because they’re less likely to micromanage the offense, Daboll is the exception to that preference.

Watching Buffalo’s offense and the growth of Josh Allen makes me dreamy about what he could do for Justin Fields.

To be honest, Justin Fields is not Josh Allen. There is only one Josh Allen, but I remember Allen’s first two years. He was a good runner, with a live arm, that showed flashes but nobody, and I mean nobody saw his ascendance to superstardom in his third year. Fields has the same traits, he may never reach Allen’s heights, but Daboll may give him the best chance.

BRIAN FLORES- When Miami unexpectedly fired Flores, he immediately became my favorite. I’ve cooled on him significantly, but I still wouldn’t be adverse to his hiring.

I think Flores is a good head coach, he turned Miami into a playoff contender and they were miles further away than Chicago is now.

There are two strikes against him, in my opinion. One is the inconsistencies of his offensive staff, in three years Miami’s offense always seemed to be in flux. The second, and most damning, is his reported handling of Tua Tagovailoa.

His lack of confidence in Tua may have been justified, but it’s concerning that he would belittle and undermine the young franchise QB because he wasn’t his choice. It gives me pause to wonder how he would handle Justin Fields and his development.

BYRON LEFTWICH- Not one of the reported finalists, and I’ve been lukewarm on his candidacy. It’s fair to wonder how much of his success as an OC is due to having Tom Brady and stellar core of weapons at his disposal. How well can he build an offense from scratch?

Leftwich impressed me in a losing effort against the Rams. Down 27-3, he never panicked, he kept a steady hand the wheel and Tampa nearly pulled off the miracle come back.

Leftwich is reportedly at the top of Jacksonville’s list.

TODD BOWLES- Number one on my list two weeks ago, I’ve cooled significantly on Bowles.

Bowles did the opposite of Leftwich against the Rams, meaning he did not impress me. To be fair, the Bucs defense had a big hand in the comeback, but it’s that Cooper Kupp play that sticks out.

I understand that there was a miscommunication on the defensive call, but that’s simply inexcusable in that situation. Under no circumstances should they have been single covering Kupp in that situation.

Bowles is rumored to be high on the Vikings list.

Here’s my current predictions for the 9 open head coaching jobs:

BEARS: Dan Quinn

BRONCOS: Nathaniel Hackett

DOLPHINS: Brian Daboll

GIANTS: Brian Flores

JAGUARS: Byron Leftwich

RAIDERS: Rich Bisaccia

SAINTS: Dennis Allen

TEXANS: Absolutely clueless on this one, if they’re smart… Demeco Ryans

VIKINGS: Todd Bowles

A Look Ahead, Part 3

Four more teams had their seasons end this weekend, so I’ll take a look at each and what to expect moving forward.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Packers seemed to have the clearest path to the Super Bowl. Every game would have to be played in frigid Lambeau Field and Aaron Rodgers was playing at an MVP level and seemed intent on thumbing his nose at all the detractors and the media.

Then they laid an egg in the postseason once again. The special teams were as bad as we’ve ever witnessed, but the vaunted offense was pretty pathetic too. Rodgers looked nothing like an MVP. Only the defense showed up, but when it mattered they couldn’t stop the run, giving up a first down on third and seven, which effectively won the game for San Francisco.

Where do the Packers go from here? First, the obvious, they’ll have a new special teams coordinator next season.

Then there’s the Aaron Rodgers situation. Will he return? Will he force a trade? Will he retire? One thing is for certain, the drama won’t last the entire off season this year.

Maybe even more concerning is the salary cap situation. Green Bay is way, way over the cap for next year and Davante Adams is a free agent. I think the Adams situation and the Rodgers situation are closely linked. Neither will return without the other, can the Packers front office get it done?

TENNESSEE TITANS: I really like how the Titans are built. They’re an old school, smash mouth football team. Play great defense, run the football. They had a QB that didn’t make mistakes, key word is had. Ryan Tannehill was quite simply awful against Cincinnati, no other way to put it. Tennessee lost because of his mistakes.

The Titans have a championship caliber roster, only some minor tweaks needed, except for QB. There’s not much they can do, they could explore a trade for an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. Maybe sign a younger QB with a little upside, Mitch Trubisky, perhaps? Jameis Winston?

Tennessee should be the favorite to win the AFC South next season, but can they make the next step with Tannehill as the QB?

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Was this Brady’s last dance? I doubt it, but you never know. Tampa Bay was decimated by key injuries and other issues (Antonio Brown), yet they still nearly pulled off a miracle.

Brady is ageless. He doesn’t appear to have lost a thing, I don’t see a reason for him to call it quits now. The question is, can they build around him? Chris Godwin is coming off an ACL injury and is a free agent. The secondary was an issue all season and the offensive line was shaky against the Rams.

The Bucs are also likely to lose at least one of their coordinators.

If Brady returns, just some minor tweaks are needed, if not, full rebuild mode.

BUFFALO BILLS: As I’m writing this I’m still catching my breath from that epic clash with the Chiefs. I feel crushed for the Bills and their fans. Josh Allen was everything he was supposed to be, and Patrick Mahomes denied him, again.

It will take awhile to get over this loss, but Buffalo can be secure in a bright future. Allen is a superstar. They’re always going to have a chance if he’s on the field.

They’ll lose OC Brian Daboll, for sure, maybe even DC Leslie Frazier. They need some upgrades along the O-Line, and on defense to try to slow down the Chiefs, but this is a team on the verge of greatness.

After going 6-0 in Wildcard weekend, I fell back to earth in the Divisional Round, going 1-3. Oddly, my only win was the biggest upset of the weekend, San Francisco over Green Bay.

All my Super Bowl picks are now eliminated, so I get to start fresh.

CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY

I love the Bengals story, and the Burrow/Chase connection is fun to watch, but NINE SACKS! They’re extremely lucky to be here, and we’re talking Patrick Mahomes and the juggernaut Chiefs.

I wasn’t picking Cincy in this one, even if Buffalo had one. No way. Great story, but they’re just not ready yet.

CHIEFS 38 Bengals 20

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

I want, with all my heart, to pick the Niners. I love George Kittle. I love Robbie Gould. I even love Jimmy Garrapolo, but sheesh, he was pretty bad for most of Saturday night.

I had questions about Matthew Stafford and his ability to make plays when it mattered. He answered those against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. LA nearly gave it away by continually shooting themselves in the foot, but in the end Stafford, and Cooper Kupp, made the play.

Niners have owned the Rams. Kyle Shanahan has had McVay’s number, but I really think LA gets over that hump this time.

RAMS 24 49ers 16

A Look Ahead, Part 2

Now that Wild Card Weekend is over and six more teams have seen their seasons end, I’ll assess those teams and where they go from here.

ARIZONA CARDINALS- The Cardinals are Kyler Murray. When he’s one hundred percent healthy and he has his full complement of weapons, the Arizona offense is virtually unstoppable. The problem is, Murray doesn’t seem to be able to stay completely healthy.

It’s a combination of factors, including his style of play and his smaller stature, but we’ve seen over the last 2 seasons, when Kyler isn’t fully healthy he just doesn’t have the magic.

The Cardinals do need to upgrade the offensive line, maybe that would help keep Murray from taking so many dangerous risks with his body? Another go to WR wouldn’t hurt either.

Upgrades at every level of the defense are also in order.

DALLAS COWBOYS- A promising season goes down in flames, once again.

The biggest problem in Dallas, besides Jerry Jones’ ego, is head coach Mike McCarthy. I’ve been critical of McCarthy for years, I feel he’s been the most overrated coach in the NFL for years. He made, and won, one Super Bowl in all his years in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers.

Yes, he was at the helm of a good turnaround this year, but that was mainly due to the healthy return of Dak Prescott and Dan Quinn improving the defense.

Almost all of Dallas’ losses this season had a head scratching coaching decision and the loss to SF was no different. Calling a QB draw with 14 seconds on the clock and no timeouts is baffling. Kicking a 51 yard field goal, which is no guarantee, instead of going for it on a manageable fourth down while down 16 in the fourth quarter, was also questionable.

The Cowboys were in a position to possibly take a Hail Mary shot not because of McCarthy’s coaching but because of Kyle Shanahan’s penchant for getting overly conservative with a sizable lead.

Bottom line, Jones should strongly consider moving on from McCarthy but he probably won’t. It could cost him one or both of his coordinators, who have more to do with Dallas’ success than the HC.

The Cowboys actually have a pretty sound team that should be a contender next season. Ezekiel Elliot is probably washed up and they should focus their running game more on Tony Pollard. The offensive line is aging and could stand an injection of youth. The defense was much improved but could always use some more pieces.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- The Raiders have already relieved their GM of his duties and all signs point to a coaching change. That would be a shame. Rich Bisaccia did a magnificent job navigating a sea of adversity to get the Raiders to the playoffs, he deserves a full season at the helm.

I think we can finally put to bed the whispers of whether Vegas will move on from QB Derek Carr. The guy is a winner and just needs more help.

I expect LV to be players for high profile WRs, O-Lineman and defense in free agency.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- I’ve never witnessed a Bill Belichick defense get as thoroughly dominated as it was by Buffalo. You can believe that will be addressed in the off-season.

It was a pretty remarkable run for the Patriots this season. Mac Jones had his growing pains down the stretch, but NE has found their next franchise QB.

The Patriots were uncharacteristically major spenders in free agency last year, I expect them to revert to form this year and merely nibble at the edges, shopping for hidden gems.

A true number one WR wouldn’t be out of the question. Nor would a tinkering of the defense to counteract Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Philly had to be feeling pretty good about their season heading into their Wildcard game, then they played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Now, they have to question whether Jalen Hurts is the future at QB. They can seriously consider moving on because they’re equipped with THREE first round draft picks. They can leverage those picks to upgrade at QB, either by moving up in the draft, though the QB class is rather underwhelming, or perhaps by prying a disgruntled veteran away from his current team.

Obviously, it would be ideal if Hurts could be the Eagles franchise QB and they could use those picks to add talent to other areas of the team. Hurts’ performance against Tampa, however, opens the door for questions.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS- While not yet official, it sure seems like Ben Roethlisberger has taken his last NFL snap. That leaves Pittsburgh with a huge void to fill.

The Steelers have Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins under contract, but neither inspires much confidence. This QB draft class is quite underwhelming, and it’s doubtful that any clear upgrades on Rudolph/Haskins will be available on the free agent market.

Elsewhere, Pittsburgh could still use upgrades along the offensive line and on defense. They’re also likely to lose WR Juju Smith-Schuster in free agency.

The Pittsburgh Steelers seem poised for a rebuilding year, for the first time in two decades.

I went 6-0 with my Wild Card weekend picks, which leaves me in a bit of a quandary for the Divisional Round. Buffalo-Kansas City is an absolute toss up for me, and even though it’s in KC, I was incredibly impressed with Josh Allen and the Bills offense.

In the NFC, SF is one of those teams capable of going into Lambeau and winning, but I don’t wholly trust Kyle Shanahan to win a big game. I seriously reconsidered my Super Bowl pick because of how impressive the Rams looked, but I absolutely do not trust Matthew Stafford in a big game.

Thus, my picks for the Divisional Round Playoffs:

TITANS 24 Bengals 17

49ERS 27 Packers 24

BUCCANEERS 24 Rams 17

BILLS 38 Chiefs 31

A Look Ahead

With the regular season over, I thought I’d take a quick look at the teams that didn’t make the playoffs, where I think they are, what I think they need to do, in some cases who they should target.

I’ll go division by division starting with the AFC East:

MIAMI DOLPHINS- Totally surprised by the firing of Brian Flores as head coach. Apparently he lost a power struggle with the GM, in my opinion Dolphins ownership made the wrong call.

I’m wondering whether the rift had anything to do with their pursuit of Deshaun Watson? I think it would be a mistake to trade for Watson and all his baggage, especially since Tua showed some impressive growth down the stretch.

The roster is decent, capable of being a playoff team next year with a few tweaks. I like Miami to target one of the higher end RBs in free agency, as well as a second tier WR.

Top Free Agent Target: James Conner, RB

NEW YORK JETS- Rough first year for head coach Robert Saleh and QB Zach Wilson, but I think the Jets are on the right track.

They need to be patient and not do the totally Jets thing of overpaying in free agency for what are essentially luxury items for a rebuilding team.

Allen Robinson would be a reasonably priced WR that would help Wilson’s development, unless, of course, he’d prefer a more immediate contender.

BALTIMORE RAVENS- If John Harbaugh wasn’t the safest head coach south of New England, he might be on the hot seat for his decision to go for 2 instead of a tie against both Pittsburgh and Green Bay, both games they ultimately lost which ultimately cost them a playoff berth. Personally, I loved the move, especially against Pittsburgh, but a coach is always second guessed when a risk fails.

Honestly, this season might have been one of Harbaugh’s best coaching jobs. The Ravens lost their top 2 RBs before the season even started, and also Marcus Peters. Lamar Jackson missed the last month plus and Baltimore still came within a whisper of the playoffs.

As long as at least one of the RBs are ready to go for the start of next season, I don’t think Baltimore needs to make any major moves.

Top Free Agent Target: Akiem Hicks, DL

CLEVELAND BROWNS- The Browns were this season’s biggest disappointment, for me anyway, since I picked them to make the Super Bowl.

They need to make a decision on an extension for Baker Mayfield. I wouldn’t pay him franchise QB money, which is what it would take to retain him. I don’t think he’s worth it, but he’s a starting caliber QB and that’s the price of doing business in the NFL. Cleveland would be better served in the long run by letting him walk, kicking the tires on possible trades and keeping a sharp eye on the college ranks.

For next season, I like the Browns to target a top tier WR, Davante Adams might not be available, Chris Godwin is coming off an ACL tear and likely will miss half the season, but Allen Robinson would be a nice fit too.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- The Colts are a very good team with a very big problem. Carson Wentz is a bottom tier starter, at best.

This is a playoff team with a better QB, a Super Bowl contender with the right one. Can they find one?

Top Free Agent Target: Mike Williams, WR

HOUSTON TEXANS- The 2021 season started as a dumpster fire in Houston, it ended as something not quite that bad. The Deshaun Watson situation is still a mess and needs to be resolved one way or another. They need to figure out if Davis Mills is the future and if so, give him the reins.

This is maybe the least talented roster in the NFL. They should only be bargain shopping in free agency and stockpiling younger players and draft picks. The playoffs are still out of the question next season.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- The Jags were a clown show most of the season, but a lot of that relates to Urban Meyer. He’s gone, but Jacksonville needs to get this right this time. I like Doug Pedersen or Brian Daboll. Both have a track record of helping a young QB grow.

The Jaguars should be all about Trevor Lawrence and giving him everything he needs to succeed. They have cap space, so a couple splash moves in free agency isn’t out of the question.

Top Free Agent Target: Re-signing Cam Robinson, OT

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- LA challenges Cleveland for most disappointing, at least LA had a shot at the playoffs in Week 18. I’m scratching my head trying to figure out how they even found themselves in that position.

In my view, the Chargers have everything needed to be a contender, what went wrong I have no idea.

Top Free Agent Target: Nate Solder, OT

DENVER BRONCOS- Broncos are in a similar situation as Indianapolis, a roster close to contention, held back by subpar QB play.

First things first, though, they have to find a new coach. Denver has always had different parameters for a head coach than most teams, so it’s difficult to predict where they might turn. I like the idea of Nathaniel Hackett if they want to try to pry Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay.

I could see them bringing back Von Miller in free agency, especially if they’re able to land Rodgers.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Well, I guess they’ll have a new name come February. Beyond that, not sure what they’ll do.

They could use help everywhere, but they don’t have any gaping holes. A QB upgrade would be nice, but I’m not sure it’s available on the open market. I see them being minor players in free agency, picking up bits and pieces at discount prices.

Top Free Agent Target: Re-signing Brandon Scherff, OT

NEW YORK GIANTS- The Giants cleaned house with the firing of Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman’s retirement. They also need to make a decision on QB Daniel Jones.

I have an interesting idea for NY, bringing in Brian Daboll as head coach and signing Mitchell Trubisky to compete with Jones. Daboll worked with Trubisky this year, he knows his offense and he’d not only push Jones, but likely supplant him as starter.

Added bonus, after four years in Chicago, Trubisky knows how to handle a hostile press and fan base.

CHICAGO BEARS- Da’ Bears also cleaned house in the front office and head coach. They need a GM in place before making a final decision on coach.

Chicago has some attractiveness with Justin Fields in place as QB. As a fan, I really like the idea of Brian Flores or Todd Bowles as head coach.

Top Free Agent Target: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR

DETROIT LIONS- The Lions flirted with being the first 0-17 team in NFL history, they ultimately showed some fight and improvement under first year coach Dan Campbell.

Outside Houston, Detroit has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL. Jared Goff is no franchise QB, but they may be able to remedy that in the draft.

I normally mock lesser teams for making a big splash in free agency, but I think Detroit is one team that can afford to pay Chris Godwin and have him miss half the season recovering from his torn ACL.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Sean Payton did one of his better coaching jobs this season, having to use 4 starting QBs, not having Michael Thomas all season and Alvin Kamara missing some time.

The defense is top notch, they have pieces on offense, they need to decide if Jameis Winston will recover fully from his torn ACL for next season. If so, they can do worse than bringing him back.

Top Free Agent Target: Re-signing Terron Armstead, if possible.

ATLANTA FALCONS- The Falcons are a team in limbo, not quite good enough to contend, not bad enough to tear it down and rebuild.

They’re bringing back Matt Ryan at QB, he’s a better than average option at this point in his career. The biggest question mark is the status of Calvin Ridley. Should he return and return to form, Ryan should have sufficient weapons to work with.

The defensive side of the ball should still be Atlanta’s focus.

Top Free Agent Target: Haason Reddick, EDGE

CAROLINA PANTHERS- 2022 will be a make or break season for head coach Matt Rhule. I don’t think he’s a bad coach, but his offense has underwhelmed. The fragility of Christian McCaffery hasn’t helped. Nor has subpar QB play. They gave up assets for Sam Darnold so they might be stuck with him for next season.

In desperation, I can see Carolina overpaying for a WR like Zay Jones.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- As of now, Pete Carroll is still head coach and Russell Wilson is still their QB, I don’t see this lasting into next season.

Seattle is about to embark on a rebuild, with or without both Carroll and Wilson. As the oldest coach in the league, does Carroll have it in him? Does Russ have the patience to waste his prime on a rebuild?

The defense could use some work, but most importantly they need to better protect Wilson.

Top Free Agent Target: Terron Armstead, OT

Now, for my playoff predictions. I picked Cleveland to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, that’s obviously out. Until beaten, the AFC still runs through Kansas City, but I like Tennessee to rise up with the return of Derrick Henry.

In the NFC, I picked Tampa Bay, I’ll stick with that only because Brady is the only QB I trust to win in Green Bay and I cannot pick the Packers.

I’ll pick Tampa Bay to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

As for this weekend’s Wild Card games:

BENGALS 31 RAIDERS 27

BILLS 19 PATRIOTS 14

BUCCANEERS 27 EAGLES 17

49ERS 24 COWBOYS 20

CHIEFS 42 STEELERS 17

RAMS 38 CARDINALS 35