The final 2021 edition, maybe. Barring another trade involving a first round pick before Thursday, this should be my final mock draft.

There’s picks I’m extremely confident in, others that I’ve gone back and forth on, and still others that I’ve just basically thrown a dart on.

The top two picks are set in stone. They’ve been the same for weeks, and it would absolutely set the draft board on fire if either would end up differently.

After that, the Falcons at #4, Detroit at #7 and Carolina at #8 are the teams to watch as what they do will shape the draft. Stay put or trade down? Take a QB of the future if they’re there (which, in Atlanta’s case, one certainly will be)?

What teams will be willing to pay the price to move up for a QB, especially the fourth or fifth one off the board? The Niners gave up 2022 & 2023 first round picks to swap this year’s first round picks with Miami (#12 to #3), I think that’s the ballpark we’re looking at to move up to 4, slightly less to 7 or 8.

I’ll try to answer some of those questions in this mock. Here we go:

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: This is the Peyton Manning of this class of QBs. Not only is Lawrence the consensus number one, he’s the generational talent that has been pegged as a number one overall pick since he set foot on Clemson’s campus.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: The Jets have been locked in on Wilson nearly as long as Jacksonville has been on Lawrence. In my opinion he might not even be the second best QB in this class, but he’s still a pretty solid choice and should have a great pro career.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Has the talk linking Jones to the Niners been nothing but a smokescreen? That’s not unheard of during draft season but my question is why the need for deception? Nobody can get in front of San Fran, everyone knows that Lawrence is going to Jacksonville and Wilson will head to New York. There is literally zero need for a smokescreen.

The latest reports say head coach Kyle Shanahan prefers Jones, while the scouting department prefers Trey Lance. In the end, I think the coach gets what he wants.

It’s not my choice, but SF has a championship caliber roster and Jones probably needs less pro seasoning than the others, even if his ceiling is considerably lower.

4. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (From Atlanta)- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: Nobody wants SF to take Mac Jones more than the Atlanta Falcons. The price for their number 4 pick will shoot through the roof.

In addition to NE, QB needy teams like Denver, Washington & Chicago should be willing to mortgage their future. Even teams like Pittsburgh and New Orleans that aren’t as desperate may kick the tires. There’s probably even some under the radar teams like Las Vegas or Tennessee that could be in the mix.

Justin Fields is worth it. I have him as the number two QB in the class, no offense to Zach Wilson. Watch his destruction of Clemson from January or some of the jaw dropping throws he made at his pro day. Lawrence and Wilson might be more can’t miss, but Fields’ ceiling is just as high.

The Patriots have been uncharacteristically aggressive this offseason. Missing the playoffs in the first post-Brady season will do that. They’ve upgraded the roster, but Belichick cannot put all his chips on Cam Newton. A couple first rounders plus other picks from an organization that hasn’t exactly been a draft day juggernaut doesn’t seem like too big a risk.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: Lots of chatter about reuniting Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase or grabbing the best non QB talent in the class, Kyle Pitts, but Cincy needs to play this smart.

Burrow’s promising rookie season was cut short because of a knee injury. A knee injury he sustained because his offensive line was a sieve. Protecting the franchise QB has to be their top priority, the receiver class is deep, they can get weapons later.

6. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: After trading down from #3 to #12, Miami traded back up to #6. All this means they’ve targeted someone they know won’t be available at 12.

There’s three players that fit this bill: Sewell, Ja’Marr Chase and Pitts.

Chase is generally considered the top WR in the class, but he’s not head and shoulders above the Alabama duo, at least one of which should be available at 12.

Sewell is considered the top tackle, but tackle isn’t a huge need for Miami, and there’s not much gap between him and the next couple tackles that they’d surely be able to land at 12.

Pitts is different. There is no other TE even in his universe, let alone orbit. TE isn’t a huge need for the Dolphins, they have Mike Gesicki after all, but Pitts is generational. He’s Jimmy Graham from his New Orleans days. A WR in a tight end’s body. A match up nightmare that will keep defensive coordinators up all night.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: The Lions are a bit of a wild card here, with one first round worthy QB still on the board.

For starters, Jared Goff is not a franchise QB, so it may be tempting to get one. Even if they decide not to, there’s teams that would be eager to jump ahead of Denver.

Ultimately, I think the combination of value, need and talent will lead Detroit to take Chase. They lost both starting WRs in free agency, and Chase could be their new Calvin Johnson.

8. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (From Carolina)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: First things first, Carolina did not trade for Sam Darnold only to immediately draft his replacement, so they’re out of the QB mix.

They could stay here and take an OT like Rashawn Slater or one of the Bama WRs, or hope that Pitts somehow slips to them, but the draft capital they could recoup is too good to pass up.

The market for this pick won’t be as robust as it was for Atlanta, but there should still be multiple teams bidding, ultimately I think Washington wins out.

They signed the ultimate bridge QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick who can hold the reins and lead this team back to the playoffs, while grooming Lance to lead the franchise into the future.

9. DENVER BRONCOS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Denver misses out on a QB because they balk at the steep price they’d have to pay. They’ll gamble that Drew Lock can take a step forward this season.

Parsons could be the QB for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense. It might be a bit of a surprise pick, but it wasn’t long ago that Parsons was considered a top five talent.

One final note, if SF passes on Mac Jones, this is the likely landing spot for him, in my opinion.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Jerry Jones is said to be enamored with Kyle Pitts, but Dallas has no chance of landing him. Upgrading the offensive line has to be considered, but Dallas’ Achilles heel has been defense, particularly pass defense.

Surtain is a lock down corner that will vastly improve their secondary and take some pressure off the rest of the defense.

Outside the top two picks, this is as confident as I am about any of my picks.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: The Giants brought in Kenny Golloday, but they still lack that game breaking, take the top off the defense WR they haven’t had since shipping out OBJ.

Waddle is that guy. I think he may be the most dynamic WR in the class. He’ll give opposing DCs nightmares.

Daniel Jones will have no excuses if he doesn’t take the next step this season.

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Philly fans are going to hate this pick, since Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith is still on the board, but this is the smarter play.

The WR class is deep, and Philly has a ton of picks, they’ll get a good one.

The NFC East has some talented pass catchers that the Eagles will have to deal with six times every season. Pairing Horn with Darius Slay could give Philly one of the best corner tandems in the NFL.

13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA should be ecstatic about how this board has fallen. I’ve mocked Slater to LA in every single mock draft, and there were times I thought they’d have to move up to secure him.

Much like Cincy, the Chargers have found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to keep him upright. They can add weapons later.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: Part of me thinks Mike Zimmer is more inclined to draft defense here, particularly an edge rusher, but offensive line should be a higher priority.

Vera-Tucker excelled at tackle this past season, but he’s better suited to the interior, making him the top IOL in the class. This matches what should be considered the Vikings biggest need.

Don’t count out Minnesota trading down from this spot and going defense.

15. ATLANTA FALCONS (From New England)- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: The Falcons get a substantial haul to move down 11 spots.

CB is a bigger need, but with Surtain and Horn off the board, the value isn’t there. Atlanta goes with the top Edge rusher instead. Who that is is open to interpretation.

Paye is an athletic freak with tremendous upside. His athletic profile could make him very enticing to a team in desperate need of defensive help.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Cardinals get the gift of the first round as size concerns push the Heisman Trophy winner down the board.

Arizona has other, more pressing needs but pairing Smith with DeAndre Hopkins would make Kliff Kingsbury’s offense very scary.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: The Raiders could go several directions here, Edge or LB are certainly possibilities but Darrisaw represents the best value at this spot.

Jon Gruden wants an old school, smash mouth offense. That starts in the trenches. Darrisaw will step right into the spot vacated by Trent Brown.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Dolphins fans would probably prefer Najee Harris here, and I’ve mocked him to Miami several times. But, they added a weapon earlier in the draft, now they’ll shift focus to defense.

Talent wise, Phillips is the top Edge in the draft, probably a top ten talent, but injury issues push him down the board.

The Dolphins will accept that risk and bring him across town from the U.

19. CAROLINA PANTHERS (From Washington)- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Farley is another player that slips down the board because of injury concerns. Arguably the top CB in the class, and a top ten selection, if not for his offseason back surgery.

In an NFC South with multiple Pro-Bowl WRs, Farley’s talent is worth taking a risk on.

Carolina adds at least one future first rounder to move down 11 spots.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: There is a better than average chance Chicago doesn’t pick in this spot. They are certainly in the mix to trade up for a QB, and they’re also a candidate to trade down seeking better value.

If they truly covet Jenkins, and as a fan I believe they should, they may even need to move up a couple spots to secure him.

The fit is perfect. Jenkins is a right tackle, which is the Bears weakest spot on the OL. He’d solidify it for the next decade and bring a mean streak to the offensive line they’ve lacked since Kyle Long’s departure.

There are some that would prefer a CB or WR at this spot, but Jenkins is the best fit and value without trading back.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: The Colts likely covet Teven Jenkins to replace Anthony Costanza, but Chicago scooped him up.

I’m not sure there’s another tackle worth taking at this spot. CB or Edge are possibilities, but I think Indy will opt to give Carson Wentz another weapon.

Bateman is a tier below the top three WRs, but I’ve compared him favorably to Allen Robinson in past mocks. Colts fans would not be disappointed.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: Tennessee could have eyes for Bateman, or an Edge rusher here, but they’ll gladly scoop up Newsome, whose been one of the rising talents at CB.

This pick and the two previous picks are pretty interchangeable. I could see any of Jenkins, Bateman or Newsome landing in Chicago, Indy or Tennessee.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: Jets fans probably prefer another offensive weapon for new franchise QB Zach Wilson, but new head coach Robert Saleh is a defensive guy.

The Jets have an early round two selection to go RB, WR or even OL, they’ll add an Edge rusher here.

I’ve had Ojulari as the first Edge off the board in a couple of mocks and this is about as far down the board as I’ve had him. He might not have the pure talent of Phillips or the huge upside of Paye, but his leadership qualities along with above average athleticism and talent make him a quality get.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama: Pittsburgh needs to fix their offensive line, first and foremost. Longtime center and line anchor, Maurkice Pouncey, retired and Dickerson is the best center in the class.

He comes with injury concerns, but he’s tough as nails and a natural fit for the Steelers.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: I’ve mocked Moehrig to Jacksonville almost as long as I’ve had Trevor Lawrence there. The fit, value and talent are just perfect.

Jacksonville picks first in the second round where they’ll easily be able to grab a WR or OT.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: I was really tempted to put Alabama IDL Christian Barmore here, but Owusu-Koramoah is too talented to pass up.

He’s a hybrid LB/S that NFL DCs have started to embrace. He could help take Cleveland’s defense to the next level.

27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU: I’ve mocked an Edge rusher to Baltimore in almost every mock draft I’ve done. It is their biggest need since they lost both of their starters in free agency. But, they’ve acquired KC’s first round pick in the Orlando Brown trade, so now they have options.

Getting Lamar Jackson some more weapons is another priority, and Marshall would instantly become his number one.

He’s been overshadowed the past couple of years by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, but Marshall is supremely talented and has a nose for the end zone.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa: Saints are a hard team to pin down. They could go in several different directions with this pick. I’ve finally settled on them taking a tone setter on defense.

Collins is a throwback linebacker. Big and bruising. The Saints could use some more physicality on their defense.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State: Packers fans would rather see a WR here, but it isn’t happening. Green Bay simply doesn’t take WRs in the first round. A corner is a possibility, but I’m going with improving Aaron Rodgers’ protection.

Radunz is a bit of a surprise first rounder, but he’s got all the makings of a foundational left tackle.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: Buffalo was a win away from the Super Bowl last year and they’ve got a pretty solid roster with few holes.

Adding a workhorse RB, who is also an adept pass catcher, would take the Josh Allen led offense to another level.

31. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: Baltimore gets their Edge rusher with their second first rounder, acquired from Kansas City in the Orlando Brown trade.

Oweh is raw, but athletically gifted. He could, and should develop into the Ravens next great Edge rusher.

32. MIAMI DOLPHINS (From Tampa Bay)- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Some team always trades back into the back end of the first round to get that fifth year option on another player. A lot of analysts think that could be a team like Chicago to get the sixth QB off the board, but there’s no rule saying it has to be a QB.

Miami makes this move for several reasons. First, Etienne is a talented runner and receiver and they’d get a fifth year option on him. Second, they’ve got the third pick in round two so it won’t cost much to move up, and they’ve got picks to burn. And finally, Dolphins fans will really love that it screws the Jets, who have to be eyeballing Etienne early in the second round.

Tampa Bay is the defending champions and they brought everyone back from that squad. They can afford to trade out of the first round and add picks.

RECAP

Jacksonville and the New York Jets are locked in at #1 & #2, I’m supremely confident those are the picks.

I’m not so sure on San Francisco at #3. I would go Fields there, but everything I’m hearing says otherwise.

I’ve never been a believer that Atlanta would take a QB at #4, I think the smart play would be to trade down.

Cincinnati at #5 and the Los Angeles Chargers at #13 are in similar positions, second year franchise QBs they need to protect. I think Cincy should definitely go OT, though they could go WR. The Chargers might not have the choice depending on how the board breaks, but if they have a shot at Slater or Darrisaw they should take it.

I think Miami at #6 is focused on three players, Pitts, Chase and Sewell. Pitts is the priority, with the other two as fall back options.

Detroit at #7 and Carolina at #8 will both be fielding calls about their picks with at least one QB still on the board. Either could move down if the price is right. If Carolina stays put, I could see them taking Slater or one of the Alabama WRs at that spot.

Denver is certainly in the mix when it comes to QBs, but I think they’d prefer not to pay a premium and hope one falls to them at #9. They could also be in play for Teddy Bridgewater or Gardner Minshew if they strike out on first round QBs.

I’m locked on Dallas taking Surtain if he’s on the board at #10.

The Giants could go in several directions depending on how the board goes. They’re in play for Slater, Parsons or an Edge rusher at #11 as well as WR.

Eagles fans want a WR at #12, but I don’t think they’ll burn a first round pick on a WR in back to back drafts. CB is the right move, but Edge or OT is another possibility.

Vera-Tucker is a perfect fit for Minnesota at #14, I’d be more confident in that pick if Mike Zimmer wasn’t so defense oriented, and the Vikings D took a big step back last year.

New England has been super aggressive this offseason and I’d be very surprised if they stay at 15. If they don’t land a QB, one of the Alabama WRs could be their target.

I have little confidence in my picks for Arizona at #16 or Las Vegas at #17. Both teams could go in multiple directions.

Miami is a bit of a wildcard not only at #18, but for the whole draft. They have the ability to land a bunch of talent in this draft.

Washington at #19 and Chicago at #20 are in similar positions. Both could move up for a QB, both could be in the OT or WR market. Chicago could also go CB.

Indianapolis at #21 and Tennessee at #22 are probably looking at the same group of players and what they do really depends on what Chicago does and who is left on the board.

The Jets are much like the Dolphins in that they have enough picks to add some serious talent in this draft. They’re in play to take the first RB off the board at #23.

I feel Pittsburgh has to go OL at #24, but an Edge to replace Bud DuPree is a possibility.

I’m nearly as confident in Jacksonville’s pick at #25 as I am in their pick at #1. It just makes too much sense.

Cleveland at #26 and Buffalo at #30 both have pretty solid rosters that just need minor tweaks, best player available is apt for both.

Baltimore at #27 and #31 will almost surely take at least one Edge rusher, they could possibly double dip at the position.

New Orleans at #28 and Green Bay at #29 could both go WR or CB if the value is there.

Tampa Bay at #32 is certainly in best player available mode, and could very well trade out of the first round.

That’s it for now. Can’t wait for Thursday!