The first of the draft dominoes has fallen with San Francisco moving up to the number 3 spot, Miami moving down to 12 then back up to number 6 and Philadelphia moving down to 12.

Quarterbacks will, most certainly, go 1-2-3 and likely fourth, as well. The Deshaun Watson wildcard is still out there, but with the allegations against him (and I’m not commenting on the veracity of the allegations just on their effect on his trade market), the likelihood of a Watson trade is diminished.

As many as five teams could be vying to move up into the top five for a QB, but I think it will likely come down to Carolina or Denver. Which one will cough up a package similar to what the 49ers did?

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No words necessary.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: 95 percent certain this is the pick. Five percent chance the Jets either go with a different QB or trade out of this spot.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: The Niners didn’t give up the bounty they did to move up not to take a QB. They also didn’t do this without having a specific QB in mind, all signs point to that QB being Lance.

4. DENVER BRONCOS (from Atlanta)- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: First things first, Atlanta should absolutely trade out of this spot. Matt Ryan still has years of quality football ahead and they can demand a king’s ransom from a more QB needy team. Let the bidding war begin.

I think the winner of that bidding war will be the Broncos. Teams like Washington and Chicago are too far down in the draft order and can’t offer as much. New England is not likely to sacrifice assets to move up, leaving only Denver and Carolina. Of the two, Denver is probably more desperate. Drew Lock is not the answer and the new GM will want to make a splash. It’ll be costly, but the Broncos will land their franchise QB.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: There’s a temptation to reunite Joe Burrow with his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, but protecting the franchise QB should be a higher priority.

6. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: After trading down to number 12, then trading back up to six, Miami has to be targeting a specific player they know won’t be there later. It could be a tackle, but it seems more likely to be the top WR in the class.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: The Lions lost their top two WRs to free agency, so even though their defense needs work, grabbing a dynamic, game breaking WR is the more likely route.

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: After striking out in their bid for one of the top 4 QBs, Carolina could explore a trade down, but they’d be better served giving Teddy Bridgewater more weapons. Number 8 is high for a TE, but Pitts is more of a hybrid TE/WR. A match up nightmare.

9. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (from Denver through Atlanta)- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: Atlanta trades down a second time, accruing more future assets. The Chargers should be targeting protection for Justin Herbert and they should be wary of Dallas, so they’ll jump ahead of them to secure Slater.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: If Slater was still on the board, Dallas might be tempted to upgrade the offensive line, but defense is the better move. Not only is Surtain the best defensive player on the board, he’s the top corner in the draft.

11. ARIZONA CARDINALS (from NY Giants)- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Arizona needs a replacement for Patrick Peterson and there are a couple teams ahead of them that might go cornerback, so the Cardinals make the move up to grab their guy.

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Eagles move down 6 spots and still land the Heisman Trophy winner. Will this satisfy Philly fans?

13. ATLANTA FALCONS (from LA Chargers)- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Through two trade downs, Atlanta has added a war chest of future assets. Now they address their atrocious defense by adding a tone setting linebacker.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: Mike Zimmer wants to fix his defense and he starts with what I have as the top edge rusher in the class, at the moment.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: I mentioned in my introduction that I didn’t think New England would trade up for a QB, but that didn’t mean they wouldn’t take one. So long as no team leap frogs them (I honestly don’t think any will) and Jones is there at 15, I like the fit. The Belichick-Saban connection is tight.

16. NEW YORK GIANTS (from Arizona)- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: The Giants trade down and take a dynamic defender in hybrid LB/S Owusu-Koramoah.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Jon Gruden wants a ground and pound offense and that starts in the trenches. Darrisaw is the top OL on the board.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: Miami added the top WR in the class earlier, now they add the top RB. The Dolphins are giving Tua all the tools to succeed.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: Tucker proved capable of playing tackle at USC and Washington should try him there, but he may be better suited to play guard. Either way, Washington has upgraded their offensive line.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: The Bears need a QB, but I think they’re more likely to add one on day two. Tackle might be a higher priority, but the value isn’t there at number 20. Allen Robinson’s future in Chicago is uncertain, so picking an ARob clone to either pair with him or replace him is very enticing.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: With Bateman off the board, the WR value isn’t there for the Colts. Defense is a possibility but a road grader at OT seems more likely.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: The value isn’t there at WR, so this pick has to be defense. Titans pass up on an edge rusher to bolster their back end with the top safety in the class.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: The Jets could go several different directions with this pick. I opted to give them the best edge rusher and best player on the board.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: Steelers could opt to upgrade their offensive line or take a running back, but with the loss of Bud Dupree in free agency, pairing the athletic freak in Oweh with TJ Watt seems like a perfectly Pittsburgh move.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: The Jaguars got their franchise QB, now they need to protect him.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jaelon Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Phillips would be a top ten pick on pure talent, injury history pushes him down the board where the Browns eagerly pair him with Myles Garrett to give opposing QBs nightmares.

27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: The Ravens lost both starting edge rushers in free agency and while I have others ranked higher, Ossai seems like he was born to be a Raven.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: The Saints don’t have any real pressing needs, so they go best player available and pair Newsome with Marshon Lattimore.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: It’s high time the Packers give Aaron Rodgers a reliable second option to Davante Adams.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Buffalo is thrilled to see Farley on the board at this point.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri: The Chiefs addressed their offensive line in free agency, but could still use more. However, the value isn’t there at this point. Instead they address their defense with a aggressive run stuffing LB.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: The defending champions go best player available and address one of their few needs.

More dominoes are likely to fall in the coming weeks. Will any team jump up to number 4 before the draft? Will Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson get trades? How about Sam Darnold or Jimmy Garappalo? I’ll update whenever a major move takes place.

As always, thanks for reading.