The first round of the NFL Draft hinges on Quarterbacks and what teams are desperate enough to make the big move.

There are several teams in the QB market in the first round. Obviously, Jacksonville and the New York Jets are well positioned to grab a franchise QB with the first two picks, but others may need to make a trade to get themselves into position.

As I see it, the teams most likely to trade up for a QB are the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Washington Football Team & the Chicago Bears.

To a lesser extent, teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and the reigning champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could take a QB if one falls to them or make a minor move to acquire one,

The elephant in the room, of course, is Deshaun Watson. Houston has to realize that Watson is adamant about never playing another down in a Texans’ uniform. They’ll trade him, preferably to a team with a top ten draft pick and they may still need to trade up further to get a replacement. I address this in this mock, as you will see.

All that being said, I present my first post- free agency mock draft of 2021:

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: Done. This pick is a lock.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Jets could throw the whole draft for a loop if they decide to stick with Sam Darnold. They won’t, the new regime will start fresh with a new franchise QB, and I don’t believe they’re serious players in the Watson sweepstakes.

*TRADE ALERT*

Miami trades the third overall pick to Houston for a package including the eighth overall pick, which Houston acquired from Carolina as part of the package in exchange for Deshaun Watson.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Houston ships Watson to Carolina for a bevy of picks and QB Teddy Bridgewater. With Philly and Atlanta ahead of them, and others jockeying to move into position, the Texans flip some of the picks acquired to Miami and move up to get their new franchise QB. Lance can sit behind Bridgewater for a year to learn the ropes, his upside is HUGE.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Atlanta Falcons trade the fourth overall selection to the Denver Broncos for a package including the ninth overall pick.

4. DENVER BRONCOS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: The phone in Atlanta will be ringing off the hook, ultimately Denver gives Atlanta the best return and grabs their franchise QB. They have to have seen enough from Drew Lock to know he’s a decent back up at best, time to take another shot.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: The run on Quarterbacks allows Cincy’s preferred target to fall to them at #5. They need to protect Joe Burrow, they can find him weapons later in the draft.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Philly could pounce if Justin Fields is still available, but I don’t see them trading up. They’ll stick with Jalen Hurts at QB and bring in a high end back up like Philly hero Nick Foles. The Eagles will likely ship out Zach Ertz on draft night and Pitts would fit in nicely as a hybrid TE/WR and overall match up nightmare.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: The Lions lost their entire receiving corps to free agency, lucky for them they have their pick of a deep and talented class of wide receivers,

8. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: Dolphins trade out of the three spot and add more draft capital, then scoop up Tua Tagoviola’s former Crimson Tide teammate, who may be the most dynamic player in the entire draft.

9. ATLANTA FALCONS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Atlanta trades down and adds the top corner in the draft to a porous defense.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Dallas Cowboys trade the tenth overall selection to the Los Angeles Chargers for a package including the thirteenth overall selection.

10. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: In the first non quarterback related trade, the Chargers target a stud tackle and jump 3 spots to secure him.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Giants have to give Daniel Jones the weapons to succeed. (As I was writing this, NY signed Kenny Golloday, which may get me to rethink this pick in later mocks)

12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Niners will explore a trade up for a QB, but ultimately decide the price is too high. Instead, I think they’ll trade a later round pick or two to the Jets and bring in Sam Darnold to compete with Jimmy Garrapolo. With their first round pick, the Niners snag a replacement for Richard Sherman.

13. DALLAS COWBOYS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: The Cowboys should be addressing defense, but rebuilding their offensive line is another priority. Darrisaw is simply too good to pass up here.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia: The Vikings offensive line needs help, but Mike Zimmer prides himself on defense and Minnesota’s was lacking in 2020.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Parsons is a top ten talent, but character concerns and fit push him down the board. Bill Belichick won’t hesitate to add another piece to his defense.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: Cardinals lost Kenyan Drake in free agency, so they nab his replacement here.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Jon Gruden would love to have a ground and pound offense and that starts in the trenches. Jenkins would add a mean streak to the Raiders’ offensive line.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Miami Dolphins trade the eighteenth overall selection to the Chicago Bears for a package including the twentieth overall pick.

18. CHICAGO BEARS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Chicago is picking a QB in this draft. They’ll explore a trade up into the top ten for a shot at Lance/ Fields but ultimately don’t have enough draft capital to outbid Houston or Denver. They may be content to look at second or third round prospects (Trask, Mills, Mond), but when Jones gets within range they pull the trigger to leapfrog Washington and grab their potential franchise QB.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: With Jones off the board, Washington goes best player available and selects an enticing hybrid LB/S to add to an already stellar defense.

20. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Miami does it again, trades down a couple spots, adding draft capital and then adds another weapon to Tua’s supporting cast. Etienne is a fantastic rusher and accomplished pass catcher, the Dolphins offense could make great strides in 2021.

*TRADE ALERT*

The Indianapolis Colts trade the twenty first overall selection to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for a package including the twenty seventh overall pick.

21. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: The Ravens lost 2 edge rushers in free agency, when Paye slips out of the top twenty Baltimore swings the deal to scoop him up.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: The Titans had eyes for Paye but get thwarted by Baltimore, instead they add a potential lock down corner.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Jets could go offensive line here, but Bateman is too good to pass up. They give Zach Wilson a potential number one receiver to grow and learn with.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: The Steelers lost Bud Dupree in free agency, but rebuilding their offensive line trumps adding another edge rusher. Vera-Tucker could be a day one starter at guard or tackle.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Have to protect the new franchise QB and Cosmi is the best tackle on the board.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami-Fl: The Browns go best player available and pair Phillips with Myles Garrett to form a potentially lethal edge rushing duo.

27. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern: The Colts trade down and add a corner to an already solid defense.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Drew Brees retired but New Orleans won’t trade up or reach for a QB. They lost Trey Hendrickson in free agency and find his replacement here.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: The Packers could upgrade Aaron Rodgers’ protection but opt to give him another weapon instead.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Best player available scenario for Buffalo and they snag a disruptive force for their defensive line.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan: The Chiefs made some moves in free agency to bolster Patrick Mahomes’ protection, another addition is not out of order.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: The Super Bowl champs go best player available and add the best safety in the draft to a stellar defense.

There are still plenty of free agency moves to come, and dominoes to fall in the QB carousel. Also, as pro days progress we should get a better idea of how teams view certain prospects. I’ll do another mock in a few weeks, and probably a seven round mock for some select teams.

Thanks for reading, as always.