So, Carson Wentz will not be a Chicago Bear. I, like many Bears fans breathed a sigh of relief. Look, Wentz may revert to his near MVP form, but it wasn’t worth the risk for me. It would have taken more than Indy gave up to land him and there was no guarantee he’d ever stick around. If he failed in Chicago it would have meant the end of the Pace/Nagy era. I’m fine with Pace being gone, he’s found some late round gems and some rather cheap free agent wins, but his big swings have mostly been misses. Roquan Smith has been his only first round success and Allen Robinson was his only real big ticket free agent win, and now he may have alienated his best offensive player.

On the other hand, I differ from a lot of Bears fans (at least the ones that I read online) in that I like Matt Nagy. Maybe it’s because I live in Nagy’s hometown. Maybe it’s because with an imperfect QB he’s led us to the playoffs twice and hasn’t had a losing season. Remember when we jettisoned Lovie Smith after a winning season that fell short of the playoffs? It took nearly a decade to get back there. Nagy can win, with the right QB.

And that bring us to the crux of the issue. The Chicago Bears need a QB. They should and probably will move on from Mitchell Trubisky. Can they be a playoff team with Trubisky? Absolutely, he’s proven that much, but he’s also proven his limitations and the fact that he is not a franchise QB. The only reason to bring him back is if you think there’s another level he can reach. Nagy benched him this past season because he knows that other level isn’t there.

So, where does that leave us? Trade for a QB? Possibly. Is Deshaun Watson truly available? Are we willing to part with the picks it will take to land him? We should be, but the real question is will we be able to put the best package together? That’s a pretty definitive no. Derek Carr? Personally, this is the option I like best, as far as trades go. He’ll cost at least one first round pick, and we’d have to find a way to unload salary (Nick Foles, especially) to get under the cap. Carr isn’t an elite QB, but he’s solid and he can win games for you. With our D, we don’t really need elite QB play, above average puts us in the playoffs. Does it get us above Green Bay? No, but honestly nothing will until Aaron Rodgers moves on. Adding Carr, though, keeps us in the game, within striking distance.

But, alas, I’m not speculating trades at this point. Nor am I hypothetically considering free agent acquisitions, which to be honest don’t offer a real upgrade at the QB position, only stop gaps. One such stop gap I would like to mention, however, is Alex Smith. Smith has injury concerns to be sure, but when healthy he is the very definition of steady and capable. He could be had relatively cheap, and he’s capable of holding the reins while Nagy and company develop a rookie. We can make the playoffs with a healthy Alex Smith. Of course, to follow this path means finding a way out of Nick Foles contract.

Which brings me to the most likely scenario, right now. Nick Foles will the Chicago Bears starting QB for 2021. This may make you cringe, it makes me cringe a little, but consider this: Nick Foles played behind a terrible offensive line last year, and with his mobility issues that’s less than ideal. The Bears found some stability on the line during the latter half of the season and they’ll welcome back James Daniels from injury. The solid run game the Bears showed down the stretch will help Foles as well. Foles being the QB1 isn’t as terrifying as you might think. It would mean drafting a QB is a must, and preferably trading up in the first round to do so (Trey Lance, I’m looking at you).

I’ll reiterate that I’m not considering trades in this mock, and I’m going with the assumption that Nick Foles is our QB1. I used http://thedraftnetwork.com for this mock, so actual pick numbers may be skewed. Without further ado, my first Chicago Bears 7 round mock draft of 2021:

First Round, Pick #20- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Without trading up, the top 4 QBs are off the board. Mac Jones is available but I’m not sold on his fit with Chicago. I prefer a more athletic QB for our offense. Jones would be okay for us, but not in the first round. Tackle is our second most pressing need. Bobby Massie is a likely cap casualty, even still the Bears need to upgrade at tackle. I mocked Darrisaw to us in my full first round mock and he’s sitting there for me here. Plug and play tackle upgrades our line.

Round Two, Pick #52- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: Mac Jones is off the board when we reach the Bears pick in round two. No other QB is worth a second round nod. Bears have two pressing needs on a solid defense, a complimentary Edge rusher for Khalil Mack and a safety. Tashaun Gipson was good last year, but he was on a one year deal and will cost more to retain. Chicago is a bit cap strapped, so it’s likely to let him walk. Moehrig is a day one starter and with Eddie Jackson’s return to All-Pro form would give the Bears a formidable back end of the D.

Round Three, Pick #83- Kyle Trask, QB, Florida: Without trading up, this is the best case scenario for the Chicago Bears. Trask isn’t a perfect fit, as I said earlier I’d prefer a more athletic QB, but this is round 3 not round 1, and of the QBs left, Trask has the best shot of developing into a solid starter.

Round Five, Pick #165– Bryce Thompson, CB, Tennessee: Buster Skrine is a likely cap casualty so the Bears have a need for a nickel corner. Thompson is best suited for the outside, but corner depth is welcome. His ball hawking skills cannot be overlooked.

Round Six, Pick #205- Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech: Ryan Pace has had draft success in later rounds and this pick would continue that trend. Herbert would provide a nice one-two punch with David Montgomery and could carry the load should injury strike.

Round Six, Pick #219- Austin Watkins, WR, UAB: If the Bears let Allen Robinson walk (big mistake) they’d need to address WR earlier, but here Ryan Pace finds another late round gem. Watkins has some serious upside and many other mock drafts have him coming off the board much earlier. He’s here and I’ll disregard offensive line depth and a developmental Edge rusher for a possible late round home run.

As I said, I’m not one hundred percent sure the picks are accurate- for example, I’m pretty sure the Bears have a seventh round pick from the Adam Shaheen deal, but it’s not listed here. No matter, this is an early preliminary mock draft and much will change between now and April 30.

BEAR DOWN, CHICAGO!