Monthly Archives: February 2021

N&D 2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.2 (Trades)

Posted by henpunk2 on

Doing a mock draft with projected trades prior to free agency is an exercise in futility. You pretty much have to speculate on what free agents wind up where, especially with quarterbacks, but also including wide receivers, running backs and other key positions.

I decided if I was going to do a mock with trades prior to the start of free agency (March 17), I was going to be BOLD with my projections. In doing so, I’ve made predictions on how the QB carousel plays out along with a couple other high profile players.

Without further ado, I present my first mock draft of 2021 with projected trades.

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No need to get too crazy here. This pick is set in stone.

2. NEW YORK JETS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Most view NY as the most likely landing spot for Deshaun Watson should he force Houston to trade him. It makes sense, the Jets have the most draft capital with which to pry him away from the Texans. However, if everyone thinks this could happen, then it’s not bold enough. Instead the Jets stand pat and use this pick to draft their franchise QB. This pick changed from my first mock, but I’m becoming convinced NY is enamored with Wilson.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS (Projected trade w/ Miami)- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: Admittedly, this BOLD trade idea did not originate with me. The credit goes to Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports, but as soon as I saw it the idea became cemented in my mind.

In my version, Houston would acquire this pick, the 81st pick in this draft & Miami’s 2022 first round pick PLUS Tua Tagoviola in exchange for Deshaun Watson. In my mind, it makes total sense. Houston might get a bigger draft haul from the Jets, but they would still need to draft a QB. Here they get a second year, possible franchise QB plus a decent draft haul, which they can use exclusively to improve Tua’s surrounding cast.

For Miami, I doubt they’d move on from Tua after only one year UNLESS it was for a superstar like Watson. Deshaun Watson would instantly make the Dolphins a Super Bowl contender AND they would still hold on to their other first round pick in this draft.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I’ve rejected the idea of Atlanta using this pick to grab Matt Ryan’s replacement, but here I’m projecting a BOLD move that is entirely of my own making. What if the Falcons were to trade Ryan? I’ll address that a bit later.

5. DENVER BRONCOS (Projected trade w/Cincinnati)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Some team is going to make the move to this spot to grab the last of the big 4 quarterbacks. In this case, I’m thinking Denver. Drew Lock is not the answer and the Broncos need to get ahead of Carolina & Philadelphia to ensure themselves of getting Lance. They pay a premium to move up four spots, but they may finally have their next franchise QB.

Trade details: Denver acquires this pick in exchange for the #9 & #235 picks this year plus next years first and third round picks.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Rumor has it Philly covets Fields but they won’t get him without trading up. They might be better served giving the reins fully to Jalen Hurts, acquiring a veteran back up (Nick Foles?) and improving the supporting cast. Addressing the offensive line wouldn’t be the worst idea, but adding the Heisman trophy winner to last year’s first round pick Jaelen Raegor would vastly improve their receiving corps.

7. DETROIT LIONS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: Detroit’s entire receiving corps are set to hit free agency and I had the Lions addressing the position in my first mock, but Paye wasn’t available at #7 in that one. Defense has been the Lions’ Achilles heel, adding a dynamic pass rusher is the right move.

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: I don’t see the Panthers paying the steep price it would require to move up for a QB, not with Teddy Bridgewater in the fold. Parsons filling their Luke Keuchly void would be a good step in returning Carolina’s defense to relevancy.

9. CINCINNATI BENGALS (Projected trade w/ Denver)- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: Cincy trades down 4 spots for a nice draft haul AND still lands the player they would likely have taken at #5. Sewell is the best tackle in the draft and protecting franchise QB Joe Burrow trumps giving him more weapons, for now.

10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: One way or another, Dak Prescott will remain in Dallas for at least 2021, meaning the Cowboys most pressing needs are on the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner is always a welcome addition.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Yes, NY has Evan Engram at TE, but Pitts is so much more than just a TE. He’s a WR in a tight end’s body. Some think he may be the best pass catcher in the draft. The Giants need to give Daniel Jones more reliable targets.

12. ATLANTA FALCONS (Projected trade w/ San Francisco)- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Here’s the BOLD move I alluded to earlier. Atlanta ships Matt Ryan to San Fran in exchange for this pick, pick #156 this year and a third rounder next year. Atlanta can sign a veteran bridge QB until Fields is ready to take over (Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton would make sense) and use this pick to help their porous defense.

San Francisco is only a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance with an erratic and oft-injured Jimmy Garrapolo at QB. The 49ers boast a solid roster that was decimated by injuries last year. They don’t need to groom a young QB, they need a solid veteran QB to take the reins. Remember this, Matt Ryan was the NFL MVP the last time he was in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to protect him.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami-Fl: Offensive line is a possibility, but it feels like Mike Zimmer would love to improve his defense. This is the same position I had the Vikings addressing in my first mock, but a different player. I’ve become convinced that most scouts have Rousseau higher than Joseph Ossai.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: I had NE taking Mac Jones in my first mock and he’s still available here, but two things have changed. First, I think Belichick will bring back Jimmy G, either by trade or free agency should San Fran release him and Waddle is available at this spot. No matter who plays QB for the Patriots they need better receivers.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: The Cardinals could have their pick of the best RBs in the draft here, or improve Kyler Murray’s protection, but Horn feels like a natural fit for the Arizona defense.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah: First, the Raiders will not trade Derek Carr, so no need to reach for a QB here. Second, LV could go in several directions with this pick but a hybrid LB/S like Owusu-Koramoah seems like the kind of player Jon Gruden would love.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: Miami made the BOLD move to acquire Deshaun Watson and I’m going to boldly predict they land RB Aaron Jones in free agency. Their offensive line is decent and can be addressed later in the draft. Their defense is solid. What they could use is another pass catcher for Watson. Bateman is a solid WR with a high floor and high ceiling.

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: My BOLD prediction for the Football Team is that they’ll sign Cam Newton in free agency, reuniting him with Ron Rivera. I think Washington really likes Taylor Heinecke, who showed promise late in the season and won’t look to make a big splash at QB. Instead they’ll conserve their resources for this year and improve other areas. Darrisaw is a plug and play tackle that could alleviate the possible loss of Brandon Scherff. This is the same position, but a different player, that I had Washington addressing in my first mock, reflecting a change in my thinking of player rankings.

20. CHICAGO BEARS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC: I don’t think Chicago has the draft capital to move up for a QB nor trade for a veteran like Watson or Carr. I also think they’re unlikely to move Nick Foles’ contract, so they may be stuck with him. What I think the Bears will do at QB is acquire Sam Darnold from the Jets.

Carson Wentz was traded for a third round pick and a conditional second rounder. Darnold’s price should be lower. I’m thinking a conditional third rounder and one of Chicago’s three sixth rounders this year could get it done. The hope for the Bears is that Darnold wins the starting job and shows signs of being the QB Mitchell Trubisky never would be. If he fails, a new regime in Chicago would be better positioned to draft a franchise QB next year.

I also need to address Allen Robinson. Somehow, someway he’ll remain in Chicago through 2021, so no need to go WR here. This pick should therefore be used to improve the offensive line. With Darrisaw gone, the Bears nab the versatile Vera-Tucker instead.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida: Indy addressed their biggest issue by acquiring Carson Wentz from Philly and they did so without relinquishing this pick. The Colts are a solid team with very few holes. TY Hilton may leave in free agency, so a complimentary receiver next to Michael Pittman could be in order.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Azeez Ojulari. EDGE, Georgia: Tennessee has to get better defensively. I had them taking Rousseau in my first mock, but he’s off the board here. Ojulari is next on the list of Edge rushers.

23. NEW YORK JETS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: The Jets landed their new franchise QB earlier, now they need to give him weapons. WR is possible, but the position is deep in this draft. Nothing helps a young QB like a solid running game, Jets have their pick of the litter at RB.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Ben Roethlisberger will most likely come back for one more season and the Steelers took a flyer on Dwayne Haskins so I don’t see them drafting a QB this year. Pittsburgh’s running game was practically non-existent last season and they may lose Alejandro Villenueva in free agency, they need to improve their blocking.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama: The Jags got their franchise QB, now they need to keep him upright. Same position but different player as my first mock as my player rankings evolve.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Ifeatu Melifownu, CB, Syracuse: Cleveland actually has very few glaring needs. A solid corner opposite Denzel Ward would be a nice addition.

27. ATLANTA FALCONS (Projected trade w/ Baltimore)- Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama: The Falcons make another BOLD move trading Julio Jones and the 183rd pick in this draft to Baltimore for this pick and a third rounder next year. Atlanta uses the pick to nab the top interior defensive lineman in the draft.

Baltimore would likely have used this pick to draft a WR, instead they give Lamar Jackson a reliable, future Hall of Fame pass catcher.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: It feels like Drew Brees will retire. Sean Payton may say he’s fine with Taysom Hill as his starter, but he can’t pass up Jones here.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Travis Etienne- RB, Clemson: I predicted that Aaron Jones would take his talents to South Beach, so RB becomes a need for the Packers. Getting Etienne, who is a decent pass catcher, would allow the Aaron Rodgers led offense to not miss a beat.

30. BUFFALO BILLS- Joesph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: Buffalo has a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. You can never have enough Edge rushers. Ossai wasn’t available here in my first mock, the Bills pounce on him now.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: KC absolutely has to improve Patrick Mahomes’ protection. Jenkins was off the board in this spot in my first mock, the Chiefs don’t hesitate.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State: The champs seem likely to lose Shaq Barrett in free agency. Replacing him with a freak athlete like Oweh isn’t a bad consolation prize.

I may attempt a three round mock before free agency, or I may not. I may just relax and see how things unfold on March 17.

As always, thanks for reading.

Chicago Bears 7 Round Mock Draft 1.0 (No trades)

Posted by henpunk2 on

So, Carson Wentz will not be a Chicago Bear. I, like many Bears fans breathed a sigh of relief. Look, Wentz may revert to his near MVP form, but it wasn’t worth the risk for me. It would have taken more than Indy gave up to land him and there was no guarantee he’d ever stick around. If he failed in Chicago it would have meant the end of the Pace/Nagy era. I’m fine with Pace being gone, he’s found some late round gems and some rather cheap free agent wins, but his big swings have mostly been misses. Roquan Smith has been his only first round success and Allen Robinson was his only real big ticket free agent win, and now he may have alienated his best offensive player.

On the other hand, I differ from a lot of Bears fans (at least the ones that I read online) in that I like Matt Nagy. Maybe it’s because I live in Nagy’s hometown. Maybe it’s because with an imperfect QB he’s led us to the playoffs twice and hasn’t had a losing season. Remember when we jettisoned Lovie Smith after a winning season that fell short of the playoffs? It took nearly a decade to get back there. Nagy can win, with the right QB.

And that bring us to the crux of the issue. The Chicago Bears need a QB. They should and probably will move on from Mitchell Trubisky. Can they be a playoff team with Trubisky? Absolutely, he’s proven that much, but he’s also proven his limitations and the fact that he is not a franchise QB. The only reason to bring him back is if you think there’s another level he can reach. Nagy benched him this past season because he knows that other level isn’t there.

So, where does that leave us? Trade for a QB? Possibly. Is Deshaun Watson truly available? Are we willing to part with the picks it will take to land him? We should be, but the real question is will we be able to put the best package together? That’s a pretty definitive no. Derek Carr? Personally, this is the option I like best, as far as trades go. He’ll cost at least one first round pick, and we’d have to find a way to unload salary (Nick Foles, especially) to get under the cap. Carr isn’t an elite QB, but he’s solid and he can win games for you. With our D, we don’t really need elite QB play, above average puts us in the playoffs. Does it get us above Green Bay? No, but honestly nothing will until Aaron Rodgers moves on. Adding Carr, though, keeps us in the game, within striking distance.

But, alas, I’m not speculating trades at this point. Nor am I hypothetically considering free agent acquisitions, which to be honest don’t offer a real upgrade at the QB position, only stop gaps. One such stop gap I would like to mention, however, is Alex Smith. Smith has injury concerns to be sure, but when healthy he is the very definition of steady and capable. He could be had relatively cheap, and he’s capable of holding the reins while Nagy and company develop a rookie. We can make the playoffs with a healthy Alex Smith. Of course, to follow this path means finding a way out of Nick Foles contract.

Which brings me to the most likely scenario, right now. Nick Foles will the Chicago Bears starting QB for 2021. This may make you cringe, it makes me cringe a little, but consider this: Nick Foles played behind a terrible offensive line last year, and with his mobility issues that’s less than ideal. The Bears found some stability on the line during the latter half of the season and they’ll welcome back James Daniels from injury. The solid run game the Bears showed down the stretch will help Foles as well. Foles being the QB1 isn’t as terrifying as you might think. It would mean drafting a QB is a must, and preferably trading up in the first round to do so (Trey Lance, I’m looking at you).

I’ll reiterate that I’m not considering trades in this mock, and I’m going with the assumption that Nick Foles is our QB1. I used http://thedraftnetwork.com for this mock, so actual pick numbers may be skewed. Without further ado, my first Chicago Bears 7 round mock draft of 2021:

First Round, Pick #20- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Without trading up, the top 4 QBs are off the board. Mac Jones is available but I’m not sold on his fit with Chicago. I prefer a more athletic QB for our offense. Jones would be okay for us, but not in the first round. Tackle is our second most pressing need. Bobby Massie is a likely cap casualty, even still the Bears need to upgrade at tackle. I mocked Darrisaw to us in my full first round mock and he’s sitting there for me here. Plug and play tackle upgrades our line.

Round Two, Pick #52- Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: Mac Jones is off the board when we reach the Bears pick in round two. No other QB is worth a second round nod. Bears have two pressing needs on a solid defense, a complimentary Edge rusher for Khalil Mack and a safety. Tashaun Gipson was good last year, but he was on a one year deal and will cost more to retain. Chicago is a bit cap strapped, so it’s likely to let him walk. Moehrig is a day one starter and with Eddie Jackson’s return to All-Pro form would give the Bears a formidable back end of the D.

Round Three, Pick #83- Kyle Trask, QB, Florida: Without trading up, this is the best case scenario for the Chicago Bears. Trask isn’t a perfect fit, as I said earlier I’d prefer a more athletic QB, but this is round 3 not round 1, and of the QBs left, Trask has the best shot of developing into a solid starter.

Round Five, Pick #165– Bryce Thompson, CB, Tennessee: Buster Skrine is a likely cap casualty so the Bears have a need for a nickel corner. Thompson is best suited for the outside, but corner depth is welcome. His ball hawking skills cannot be overlooked.

Round Six, Pick #205- Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech: Ryan Pace has had draft success in later rounds and this pick would continue that trend. Herbert would provide a nice one-two punch with David Montgomery and could carry the load should injury strike.

Round Six, Pick #219- Austin Watkins, WR, UAB: If the Bears let Allen Robinson walk (big mistake) they’d need to address WR earlier, but here Ryan Pace finds another late round gem. Watkins has some serious upside and many other mock drafts have him coming off the board much earlier. He’s here and I’ll disregard offensive line depth and a developmental Edge rusher for a possible late round home run.

As I said, I’m not one hundred percent sure the picks are accurate- for example, I’m pretty sure the Bears have a seventh round pick from the Adam Shaheen deal, but it’s not listed here. No matter, this is an early preliminary mock draft and much will change between now and April 30.

BEAR DOWN, CHICAGO!

N&D 2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Posted by henpunk2 on

For my first mock draft of 2021, I’m not considering any trades or speculating on who ends up where during the QB carousel. I do, very briefly, consider possible losses via free agency.

Some dates to remember: Free Agency officially starts on March 17, with legal tampering allowed on March 15. The NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 29.

I used TheDraftNetwork.com to make this mock draft.

  1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: No need to over-think this. Lawrence is the best QB prospect to enter the draft since Peyton Manning.
  2. NEW YORK JETS- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: I believe the new regime in NY will move on from Sam Darnold. Either they take Fields here or move the pick to get Deshaun Watson.
  3. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: There is some chatter about Miami moving on from Tua already, not a chance. The Dolphins may trade out of this spot, but for now they take the best tackle in the draft.
  4. ATLANTA FALCONS- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan: Many pundits think Atlanta will take Matt Ryan’s successor here, I’m not convinced yet. Instead I think they strengthen the defense with the best Edge rusher.
  5. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU: With Sewell off the board, Cincy reunites Joe Burrow with one of his favorite college targets.
  6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: Eagles continue their search for a true #1 receiver and land the Heisman trophy winner.
  7. DETROIT LIONS- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: I had been targeting Zach Wilson here, but the Stafford/Goff trade changed that. Lions add what may be the most dynamic WR in the draft.
  8. CAROLINA PANTHERS- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: Another team that could be players in the QB market, but I like the fit of Parsons stepping into the Luke Keuchly void too much to pull the trigger here.
  9. DENVER BRONCOS- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: Wilson won’t be here at #9 on draft night, and I’m not sure Denver trades up to get him, but they can’t pass up moving on from Drew Lock if given the chance.
  10. DALLAS COWBOYS- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama: Unless they somehow let Dak Prescott walk, Dallas has to address the defense here.
  11. NEW YORK GIANTS- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Pitts isn’t a normal TE, he’s a young Jimmy Graham type. Physical mismatch for any individual defender.
  12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Niners likely would need to move up to land Lance, but I like the fit here if they move on from Jimmy G.
  13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: LA found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert, now they need to protect him.
  14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas: It just feels like Mike Zimmer will address his defense with this pick.
  15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: Jones might not last this long, but he feels like a perfect fit for a Belichick team.
  16. ARIZONA CARDINALS- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: Arizona could go in several directions, just feels like defense takes priority.
  17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: Another team that may be in the QB market. Owusu-Koramoah just feels like a Gruden guy to me.
  18. MIAMI DOLPHINS- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: WR is a possibility here, but nothing helps a young QB like a solid running game.
  19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas: Yet another team in the QB market, won’t have a shot without trading up, so they bolster the protection instead.
  20. CHICAGO BEARS- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech: Chicago is also in the QB mix, but solidifies the line instead.
  21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Another team in the QB market, they address defense instead.
  22. TENNESSEE TITANS- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami: Feels like the Titans must address defense here.
  23. NEW YORK JETS- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota: This would be a home run of a first round for the Jets. Landing the franchise QB and a number one receiver.
  24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC: Steelers run game was atrocious this year. They address blocking first.
  25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS- Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan: The Jaguars landed their franchise QB, now they need to protect him.
  26. CLEVELAND BROWNS- Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa: Cleveland finally ended their playoff drought, not many holes in this roster. Another disruptive force on defense is never a bad idea.
  27. BALTIMORE RAVENS- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU: Giving Lamar Jackson another weapon seems a likely direction for the Ravens to go.
  28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri: As good as the Saints’ defense can be, they’ve been a little lacking at the second level. Bolton can change that.
  29. GREEN BAY PACKERS- Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State: Improving the offensive line seems the most likely direction for the Packers to take.
  30. BUFFALO BILLS- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami: Defensive side of the ball is Bills’ most pressing need. Can never have enough pass rushers.
  31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS- Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame: As the Super Bowl proved, Chiefs need to protect Patrick Mahomes better.
  32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: Defending Super Bowl champs have the luxury of picking the best player available. Adding to an already impressive defense is an added bonus.