1. Cleveland Browns– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– If I’m Cleveland’s GM, knowing the track record of bad QB’s, I’m taking Darnold. Don’t get me wrong, I love Josh Allen, I think he’s going to be great, but there is risk. The Browns should be as risk averse as possible, they don’t need a home run here, just a hit. Allen is a swing for the fences, and a perfectly Browns move.
2. New York Giants– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– All the talk of the Giants wanting a ‘gold jacket’ guy is pure obfuscation. The chances of being in a position to land their next franchise QB without selling the farm are slim. Eli isn’t getting any younger, and Darnold fell in their lap. Slam dunk.
3. New York Jets– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– This is obviously a QB and I think the Jets had their sights set on either Allen or Mayfield. With Cleveland taking Allen, Mayfield heads to New York.
4. Cleveland Browns– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– Once again, if I’m John Dorsey, this wouldn’t be the pick. I’d pair Chubb with last year’s overall number one Myles Garrett and form a devastating edge rush tandem for years to come. Even after adding Carlos Hyde, the Browns can’t resist adding the best player in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– Rumor has Elway enamored with Mayfield. With him off the board, Denver opts to improve the protection for Case Keenum with the best OL in the draft.
6. Indianapolis Colts– Bradley Chubb,EDGE, NC State– I had Indy trading out of this spot in my last mock, but that was with Chubb off the board. Here, they stay put and take the guy they would have at #3.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Derwin James, S, Florida State– I mocked Barkley here in both my previous mock drafts, but he’s off the board here. Tampa opts to shore up the back end of their defense instead.
8. Buffalo Bills*– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– When Rosen begins to fall, Buffalo knows they need to get in front of Miami and also compete with New England. They pay a steep price to move up, but not as steep as it could have been to get their franchise QB.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– San Fran lands the top corner in the draft.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– Gruden has made some questionable moves since taking over so this pick could be a wild card. Smith is one of the least risky picks in the first round and fills a major need.
11. Miami Dolphins– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– Miami covets Rosen, but they don’t have the draft capital to prevent Buffalo from leap frogging them. They settle for a replacement for Ndamukong Suh.
12. Chicago Bears*– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Once Nelson is off the board, Chicago is a willing trade partner for a QB needy team, Buffalo comes calling. Netting another second round pick and recouping the third rounder they gave up to get Trubisky, the Bears still add they guy I mocked to them at #8 in my first two mock drafts. Big win for Ryan Pace.
13. Washington Redskins– Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama– The best DB in the draft falls to #13 due to the uncertainty of his position in an NFL defense. Washington benefits and will happily find a spot for him.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– One of the few picks I haven’t changed for any of my mocks. It makes too much sense, especially in a division that has seen a major upgrade in the passing game.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– I’ve been seeing WR in this spot quite a bit recently, but I still think Arizona has to upgrade the QB spot. Bradford cannot stay healthy and Glennon is just terrible.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– I could flip flop the Arizona/Baltimore picks, I’m pretty confident Jackson and Ridley will go to either of them.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers could be the class of the AFC West this season, keeping Philip Rivers upright will make or break their season. Adding the best OT in the draft should help.
18. Seattle Seahawks– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– Seattle lost a lot of firepower on their once vaunted D, but the O-Line has been a problem for years.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– I was convinced Dallas would go defense here, then they released Dez Bryant. They need a target for Dak Prescott. For my money, Sutton is the best WR in the draft.
20. Detroit Lions– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– Mocked a RB here in my last mock, but I remembered Matt Patricia is a defensive guy from the Belichick school. Landry beefs up the Detroit pass rush.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– Offensive line is a definite possibility, but with Vontaze Burfict suspended again, Cincy looks to his future replacement.
22. Buffalo Bills– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Buffalo had to trade this pick to get their QB in my last mock. They keep it in this one and use it strengthen their defense.
23. New England Patriots– Leighton Vander Esche, LB, Boise State– Vander Esche just seems like the perfect Patriots linebacker.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– I absolutely love this fit. Adding weapons and/or protection for Cam Newton is a possibility, but I think the value is lacking at this spot.
25. Tennessee Titans– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– I’ve gone back and forth on this pick. Mocked Davenport in my first mock, went Wynn in my second. I’m back to Davenport.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Taven Bryan, DL, Florida– I mocked Payne to the Falcons in my previous two mocks. He’s off the board now, but the need remains. Rumor has it Atlanta is enamored with Bryan.
27. New Orleans Saints– Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State– I flirted with the idea of the Saints picking Drew Brees’ successor here, but instead gave them the TE they’ve been lacking since Jimmy Graham.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– The Steelers have been the hardest team for me to mock, I’ve had them going in three different directions now. Guice is the RB that will allow Pittsburgh to let someone else break the bank for Le’Veon Bell after this season.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA– Plenty of mock drafts have the Jags taking a QB here, but that really isn’t Tom Coughlin’s style. Building from the trenches is, after adding Andrew Norwell, they draft the best tackle available.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– The top ranked defense, the jewel of free agency, a dynamic RB coming back from an injury shortened rookie season, solid receiving corps. Minnesota’s needs are few, offensive line is one and they add the best lineman available.
31. New England Patriots– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado– I mocked a WR here last time, but the value isn’t really there. I do think the Patriots are in the market for Tom Brady’s successor, but their eyes are on Rosen, they won’t reach for anyone else. Instead, they’ll fill a need with the best player available.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida– The defending champs have few needs and none offer a similar value at this spot. Eagles traded for Worley, then released him after his arrest. This pick makes sense.