Allow me to add a few caveats before getting into the picks. First, let me establish the teams I think could draft a QB in the first round, and the odds of them doing so. Cleveland (100%), New York Giants (90%), New York Jets (100%), Denver (25%), Miami (50%), Buffalo (99%), Arizona (75%), New Orleans (10%), Pittsburgh (10%), Jacksonville (5%), New England (1%).

That being established, allow me now to identify the teams that I believe could possibly trade down or up. New York Giants at #2, I am nearly convinced it won’t happen, but I suppose it could, Buffalo does have the firepower to make this move. Cleveland at #4 is a very real possibility, though the asking price will be huge and maybe not what a QB needy team is willing to give for the 4th QB off the board. Denver at #5 is a slight possibility. The most likely trade down teams are Indy at #6, Tampa Bay at #7, Chicago at #8, San Francisco at #9 and Oakland at #10. For the fourth QB off the board this seems to me to be the area to target.

As for the teams that could trade up, Buffalo sitting at #12 seems the most likely. If the Giants are truly shopping that pick, Buffalo has the draft capital to make the move. I don’t think the Giants are though. Buffalo will balk at Cleveland’s asking price at #4. If they think, however, that Miami might take a QB at #11 or that Arizona might leapfrog them, they will make the move up to the 6-10 range.

I think Miami will stay at #11, if one of the top 4 QBs fall to them, they may pounce, if not they’ll go another direction. Arizona is the team that Buffalo needs to be wary of. They don’t have the draft capital the Bills have, but they have as big of a need. I think, however, they would be content to stay at #15 and take the fifth option at QB.

One final note, in my opinion the top 4 players in this class are NOT QBs, though I think they will be at least the top 3 players off the board. My top 4 would be Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson, Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
I think circumstances such as the rush for QBs and the lesser emphasis on three of those four’s positions (RB, OG & S) as well as team needs will precipitate a lower draft standing than their talent warrants.

All that being said, I offer my second mock draft, precipitated by the Patriots-Rams Brandin Cooks trade…

1. Cleveland Browns– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– I am convinced Cleveland has to go QB here and I’m nearly as convinced it has to be Darnold, there’s been rumblings about Allen and to a lesser degree Rosen, but Darnold is the safest choice and Cleveland can’t afford to gamble and lose with this pick.
2. New York Giants– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– One must assume that the bounty given to Indy for the #3 pick was also offered to the Giants. To turn that down, the G-men are either looking for more from someone like Buffalo (a brave gamble) or they’re taking Eli’s successor here. The talk of Chubb and Barkley here is nonsense. This pick is a QB either by the Giants or a trade up team. If it’s the Giants, I think it’s Rosen.
3. New York Jets– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– The Jets didn’t give up the bounty they did to move to this spot for anything but a QB and they have to love 3 of them. Allen has the big arm that can make scouts and coaches drool.
4. Cleveland Browns– Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State– In my first mock draft I had Cleveland trading out of this spot to Buffalo. I’m not sure the Bills are willing to pay the steep price Cleveland will demand for what amounts to the fourth best QB. I think Cleveland stays put and the options are Chubb or Barkley. Pairing Barkley and Darnold would be interesting, but pairing Chubb with last year’s #1, Myles Garrett, could make the Cleveland’s D elite.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– I don’t believe Denver is seriously in the QB derby, Keenum was great last year and Lynch is in only his third year. Passing on a generational talent in either Nelson or Barkley for the fourth best QB in this scenario doesn’t make sense. Denver’s line was shoddy last year and Elway knows that he won 2 Super Bowls because he had a great line. Nelson is a beast.
6. Buffalo Bills*– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– Indy could stay here and take Barkley, but I think with Chubb off the board they’re very open to trading down, again. If the rumbles of either Arizona or Miami moving up get louder, Buffalo will pull the trigger. They moved up to 12 just so they could be in this position. They aren’t leaving the first round without a QB.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– If Indy stays put and takes Barkley, Tampa may either take Fitzpatrick or trade down with one of the QB needy teams. I still think Barkley stays on the board until this point and Tampa is ecstatic to add the most dynamic player in the draft.
8. Chicago Bears– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Bears are another prime candidate to trade down and add draft assets, but I think it will end up being Indy. Staying put, there are plenty of options for Chicago. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Chubb or Nelson to still be on the board (more likely Nelson) and Chicago could lean that way. Ryan Pace has shown an affinity for athletic freaks with loads of potential and that description fits Edmunds to a T.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama– The Niners are yet another trade down candidate, but I think they stay put and add the best defensive back in the draft.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– I’m beginning to wonder if Jon Gruden actually knows what he’s doing. Oakland is paying him like a coaching god, but he’s been out of the league a long time. He might want to take the game back to 1998, but those days are long gone. Either way, this is a smart, safe choice.
11. Miami Dolphins– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– I think the rumors of Miami being in the QB market are legit, if one of the top four falls to them or they can beat Buffalo to the punch, it could happen. Buffalo has more draft capital to trade up though, and I don’t think Miami will settle for the fifth or sixth best, they’ll get a younger, cheaper, less pain-in-the-ass version of Ndamukong Suh.
12. Indianapolis Colts*– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– If the draft goes like this, Indy is a big, big winner. Might be a little early for Landry, but he is the second best Edge rusher in the draft and has a high ceiling, the extra picks the Colts netted in 2 trade downs is huge.
13. Washington Redskins– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– Not a huge need for Washington, but a corner tandem of Ward and Josh Norman is intimidating as hell. Hard to pass up a top ten talent at this spot.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– This pick just makes too much sense, maybe the new Packers’ GM will actually hit on a first round DB pick.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– With the possible exception of Buffalo, Arizona has the worst QB situation in the league. Bradford is a walking MASH unit, and Mike Glennon showed he is a terrible starting option. If a team builds the right offense around Jackson, he could be the gem of the QB class.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– Another pick that makes too much sense. Baltimore needs receivers and Ridley is the consensus top WR in the class.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers are a potential playoff team with a need at tackle, they take the best one on the board to protect Philip Rivers.
18. Seattle Seahawks– Derwin James, S, Florida State– Protecting Russell Wilson should be priority number one, but I think Pete Carroll can’t resist re-loading his Legion of Boom, especially since James is still on the board.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– A full season of Ezekiel Elliott and a healthy O-Line should improve the Dallas offense, though I wouldn’t rule out a WR if Ridley or Sutton are still on the board. The Boys are going nowhere, however, if they can’t stop anyone. Evans is a solid performer from a proven program, Jerry Jones loves those kind of guys.
20. Detroit Lions– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– Detroit added LeGarrette Blount, a great, bruising RB with a championship pedigree, but he is not an every down back and not a home run hitter. Da’Ron Payne or Vita Vea if he falls is an option here. I think Detroit will opt to finally settle their backfield.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– The Bengals made the trade for Cordy Glenn but O-Line is still a big need. Linebacker and CB are a possibility as well.
22. Indianapolis Colts*– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– I think the Colts would love for Guice to be here but I have Detroit snagging him 2 spots earlier. They could go LB here, but giving Andrew Luck another weapon seems to be the play.
23. New England Patriots– Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan– The Patriots would love for Guice to be here, or one of the offensive tackles, I have all going before this. Hurst had a medical issue that has since been cleared. New England’s D was suspect last year, Hurst could help anchor the line.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– I don’t see any WR worthy of this pick and maybe the Panthers go Isaiah Wynn to replace the departed Andrew Norwell. I think Alexander makes too much sense though.
25. Tennessee Titans– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– The Titans address their biggest area of need with the best G on the board.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Not changing this pick, if Payne is still on the board he makes too much sense for the Falcons.
27. New Orleans Saints– Leighton Vander Esche, LB, Boise State– If a sixth QB is coming off the board in the first round, this could be the spot. Mason Rudolph would make a ton of sense as an understudy and eventual successor to the future Hall of Famer, Drew Brees, but I think the Saints continue to rebuild the defense by adding an athletic LB.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Justin Reid, S, Stanford– In my first mock I had the Steelers taking Rudolph. I really like that idea, it’s outside the box and a real possibility, but I’ve been hearing Reid in this spot too much lately not to take it seriously. If New Orleans passes on Vander Esche, however, the Steelers will pounce.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA– Another possible landing spot for Rudolph, but I think it would be out of character for Tom Coughlin. He is building this team old school style, and that starts in the trenches. They added Andrew Norwell in free agency and now add another lineman to clear holes for Leonard Fournette.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Minnesota– The offense seems set, though addressing the line is a possibility, I don’t think there are any more lineman worthy of first round consideration. The Vikings instead opt to add another piece to the back end of a defense that got shredded by Nick Foles.
31. New England Patriots– Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M– The Patriots lost Amendola in free agency and traded away Brandin Cooks. They still have Gronk, Chris Hogan and a returning Julian Edelman, but no true field stretcher for Brady. They still need to replace Nate Solder but no tackle offers the value here.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– The Eagles are in an interesting spot. The defending champs have a few ‘needs’, but none of them match up to the value of this spot. Many mocks have Guice falling to them and that could be huge, but I think he goes earlier. Tight end is a possibility, but with Zach Ertz not a huge need. I think they go with best player available and make a team strength even stronger.

* Speculated trade between Indianapolis and Buffalo, Buffalo trades the 12th and 22nd picks in the first round, as well as a second rounder to Indy for the 6th pick in the first round.