1. Cleveland Browns– Sam Darnold, QB, USC– For the longest time I professed the wisdom of taking Barkley here and getting the QB at 4. The premise being that Barkley wouldn’t be there at 4. Moves by the Jets and pending moves by the Bills have changed that. Cleveland has to get their QB now and they’ll go the safe route in Darnold.
2. New York Giants– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA– The Jets’ trade up to 3 tells me the Giants are staying at 2 and there’s only two reasons to do that- a QB or Saquon Barkley. It isn’t Barkley. Rosen is the perfect cerebral QB to learn from Manning for a year or two.
3. New York Jets– Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma– The Jets made the move to get their franchise QB, would have liked to get up to 2, but will settle for 3. Mayfield isn’t my choice, but something about the Jets tells me he’s theirs.
4. Buffalo Bills *– Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming– Bills have been positioning themselves to make this move and then the Jets beat them to the punch. Cleveland will extract a BIG price to move down, but Buffalo gets what I think could be the best QB in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos– Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame– Jets and Bills leapfrog them in the QB derby, but I think Elway is okay with Keenum and not ready to give up on Lynch yet. Protecting the QB is more important and Nelson is one of the two best players in the draft.
6. Indianapolis Colts– Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State– Indy trades down and still gets the guy most mocks had them getting at 3. This is how it’s done.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State– Tampa benefits from the run on QB’s and gets what I believe is the best player in the draft. The Tampa O could be electric with him in the fold.
8. Chicago Bears– Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech– Nelson or Chubb would be nice if they fell. Fitzpatrick is good, if not a great fit, but I’ve fallen in love with the athleticism and potential of Edmunds and I think Ryan Pace and Vic Fangio will as well.
9. San Francisco 49ers– Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama– Another beneficiary of the QB run, San Fran gets a top 4 player to spearhead their secondary.
10. Oakland Raiders– Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia– One of the safer picks in the draft. Gruden gets a solid LB to help bolster the D,
11. Miami Dolphins– Derwin James, S, Florida State– There’s been speculation that Miami could be in the QB market, but I’m not sold. Who knows what they’re doing? I gave them the BPA and moved on.
12. Cleveland Browns*– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State– I expect the Browns to extract a king’s ransom from Buffalo to move down and they’ll still get the best CB in the draft.
13. Washington Redskins– Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College– Edge rushers are the defensive equivalent of QB’s, teams tend to overvalue them. Might be a little early for Landry but he is the second best EDGE in the draft.
14. Green Bay Packers– Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa– GB needed secondary help before the entire NFC North upgraded their passing games. BPA meets needs here.
15. Arizona Cardinals– Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville– Arizona is the odd team out in the QB derby and they panic. I think Jackson can be a good pro in the right system, but I’m not sold on him being top half of the first round worthy.
16. Baltimore Ravens– Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama– Even with the Crabtree signing, Baltimore needs to upgrade the WR. Ridley is the safest pick at that position, will be a solid pro.
17. Los Angeles Chargers– Connor Williams, T, Texas– Chargers are close to contending and the Philip Rivers window is still wide open, protecting him is paramount especially in the sack happy AFC West,
18. Seattle Seahawks– Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia– Seahawks blew up their once vaunted D, lost their TE and continue their search for a feature back since Beast Mode left. O-Line has always been a problem area for them. They reach a little for the best (non-injured) lineman left.
19. Dallas Cowboys– Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama– Sean Lee is a stud, an oft-injured stud. Dallas adds a solid complement.
20. Detroit Lions– Vita Vea, DL, Washington– Perfect replacement for the departed Haloti Ngata.
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame– They added Cordy Glenn in the trade down with Buffalo, they’ll still go tackle here.
22. Buffalo Bills– Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU– Buffalo got their QB, now they get him a weapon. Best WR in the class in my opinion.
23. Los Angeles Rams– Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State– No offensive lineman or receivers worthy of this spot. Rams get a replacement for Alec Ogletree.
24. Carolina Panthers– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville– The Bashaud Breeland signing fell through, leaving a need at CB. More weapons for Cam is a possibility, but none worthy of this spot.
25. Tennessee Titans– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA– When the best player available is an EDGE rusher, you take him.
26. Atlanta Falcons– Da’Ron Payne, DL, Alabama– Position of need from a proven system. No brainer.
27. New Orleans Saints– Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State– I thought about them getting Drew Brees’ successor here, but I think they add a weapon instead.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers– Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State– I had three teams with aging QB’s that might add the sixth QB to the first round (NO, Pittsburgh & NE), Pittsburgh is the one that pulls the trigger. The planning for life after Ben starts now.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars– Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas– Jags are a solid, ascending team with only a few holes. LB is one and they take the best available.
30. Minnesota Vikings– Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida– Can never have enough corners.
31. New England Patriots– Derrius Guice, RB, LSU– You will watch him carve up AFC East defenses in the fall and think, Belichick did it again. This is a steal.
32. Philadelphia Eagles– Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado– The Super Bowl Champs go best player available while also following the never enough corners mantra.

* Speculated trade between Cleveland and Buffalo